This book summarizes the state of the art in tree-based methods for insurance: regression trees, random forests and boosting methods. It also exhibits the tools which make it possible to assess the predictive performance of tree-based models. Actuaries need these advanced analytical tools to turn the massive data sets now at their disposal into opportunities. The exposition alternates between methodological aspects and numerical illustrations or case studies. All numerical illustrations are performed with the R statistical software. The technical prerequisites are kept at a reasonable level in order to reach a broad readership. In particular, master's students in actuarial sciences and actuaries wishing to update their skills in machine learning will find the book useful. This is the second of three volumes entitled Effective Statistical Learning Methods for Actuaries. Written by actuaries for actuaries, this series offers a comprehensive overview of insurance data analytics with applications to P&C, life and health insurance.

This Volume of the AIDA Europe Research Series on Insurance Law and Regulation explores the key trends in InsurTech and the potential legal and regulatory issues that accompany them. There is a proliferation of ideas and concepts within InsurTech that will fundamentally change the market in the next few years. These innovations have the potential to change the way the insurance industry works and alter the relationships between customers and insurers, resulting in insurance products that are more closely aligned to individual preferences and priced more appropriately to the risk. Increasing use of technology in the insurance sector is having both a disruptive and transformative impact on areas including product development, distribution, modelling, underwriting and claims and administration practice. The result is a new industry, known as InsurTech. But while the insurance market looks to technology for greater efficiency, regulators are beginning to raise concerns about managing potential risks. The first part of the book examines technological innovations relevant for insurance, such as FinTech, InsurTech, Sharing Economy, and the Internet of Things. The second part then gathers contributions on insurance contract law in a digitalized world, while the third part focuses on cyber insurance and robots. Last but not least, the fourth part of the book discusses legal and ethical questions regarding autonomous vehicles and transportation, including the shipping industry, as well as their impact on the insurance sector and civil liability. Written by legal scholars and practitioners, the book offers international, comparative and European perspectives. The Chapters "FinTech, InsurTech and the Regulators" by Viktoria Chatzara, "Smart Contracts in Insurance. A Law and Futurology Perspective" by Angelo Borselli and "Room for Compulsory Product Liability Insurance in the European Union for Smart Robots?" by Aysegul Bugra are available open access under a CC BY 4.0 license at link.springer.com. All three open access chapters were funded by BIPAR.

The growth of Islamic finance today is undeniable given its services, product innovation, performance and achievements, with the Islamic insurance market being no exception; it has retained global market recognition in a parallel platform as Islamic finance moves forward. There is much written regarding the Islamic insurance system, but rarely do researchers present the various Islamic insurance products and their structures in one collective place. This book is a timely addition in meeting contemporary market demands by providing a much-needed overview of the Islamic insurance products and their Shari'ah compliant structures. This book would be of interest to academics, researchers, students and professionals who are seeking to understand the products offered.

Die Autoren berucksichtigen in dieser Neuauflage aktuelle Entwicklungen, indem sie nicht nur die bestehenden Inhalte "auffrischen," sondern wichtige neue Abschnitte einbauen, so zum Beispiel zum ISM-Code (dem wichtigsten Massnahmebundel zur Gewahrleistung eines sicheren Schiffsbetriebs) oder zum Maklerrecht, das durch die EU-Maklerrichtlinie vollig neu gefasst wurde."

This book deals with Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and, in particular, Quantitative Risk Management (QRM) in life insurance business. Constituting a "bridge" between traditional actuarial mathematics and insurance risk management processes, its purpose is to provide advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the Actuarial Sciences, Finance and Economics with the basics of ERM (in general) and QRM applied to life insurance business. The main topics dealt with are: general issues on ERM, risk management tools for life insurance and life annuities, deterministic and stochastic analysis of the behaviour of a portfolio fund, application of sensitivity testing to assess ranges of results of interest, stress testing to assess the impact of extreme scenarios, and the product development process for life annuity products.

Sicherheitsmanagement wird mit Hilfe des vorliegenden Handbuchs und der Software Ariadne SMS effizient und kostengunstig. Die Autoren beschreiben die Digitalisierung des Expertenwissens von Unfalluntersuchern und dessen maschinelle Verarbeitung. Das gesamte Unfallgeschehen wird mit algorithmisch auswertbaren Schlusseln strukturiert klassifiziert. Unfalldeskriptoren und Fehlervariablen werden auf der Basis des 3-Ebenen-Modells der Unfallentstehung zu Risikoprofilen und Praventionsmassnahmen verarbeitet. Ariadne SMS basiert auf aktueller Web-IT und ist durch selbstlernende Netze innovativ. Automatisierte Muster- und Spracherkennungsverfahren generieren valide Risikovorhersagen und Simulationen der Wirksamkeit von Massnahmen auf die Risikoverteilung. Fehlerquellen entfallen, Bearbeitungsschritte werden eingespart, Informationen sind transparent und jederzeit verfugbar. Der praktische Einsatz bei Bundeswehr und Berufsgenossenschaften fuhrte zu erheblichen Einsparungen. Anwendungen in Medizin und Unternehmensfuhrung, im Umwelt- und Katastrophenschutz sowie bei Versicherungen sind moeglich.

Long-listed for the FT & Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2011

The true story of how risk destroys, as told through the ongoing saga of AIG

From the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, the subject of the financial crisis has been well covered. However, the story central to the crisis-that of AIG-has until now remained largely untold. "Fatal Risk: A Cautionary Tale of AIG's Corporate Suicide" tells the inside story of what really went on inside AIG that caused it to choke on risk and nearly brining down the entire economic system. The book
Reveals inside information available nowhere else, including the personal notes and records of key players such as the former Chairman of AIG, Hank GreenbergTakes readers behind the scenes at the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkDetails how an understanding of risk built AIG, but a disdain for government regulators led to a run-in with New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer

"Fatal Risk" is the comprehensive and compelling true story of the company at the center of the financial storm and how it nearly caused the entire economic system to collapse.

Carsten Rahlfs entwickelt ein Bewertungsmodell zur Ableitung von Handlungsempfehlungen zur Optimierung der Wertschopfungspolitik mittelstandischer Versicherungsunternehmen. Er kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass zunachst zu prufen ist, ob die Beibehaltung einer Wertschopfungsstufe zur Steigerung des Shareholder Value beitragt."

This book summarizes the state of the art in generalized linear models (GLMs) and their various extensions: GAMs, mixed models and credibility, and some nonlinear variants (GNMs). In order to deal with tail events, analytical tools from Extreme Value Theory are presented. Going beyond mean modeling, it considers volatility modeling (double GLMs) and the general modeling of location, scale and shape parameters (GAMLSS). Actuaries need these advanced analytical tools to turn the massive data sets now at their disposal into opportunities. The exposition alternates between methodological aspects and case studies, providing numerical illustrations using the R statistical software. The technical prerequisites are kept at a reasonable level in order to reach a broad readership. This is the first of three volumes entitled Effective Statistical Learning Methods for Actuaries. Written by actuaries for actuaries, this series offers a comprehensive overview of insurance data analytics with applications to P&C, life and health insurance. Although closely related to the other two volumes, this volume can be read independently.

This volume gathers selected peer-reviewed papers presented at the international conference "MAF 2016 - Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance", held in Paris (France) at the Universite Paris-Dauphine from March 30 to April 1, 2016. The contributions highlight new ideas on mathematical and statistical methods in actuarial sciences and finance. The cooperation between mathematicians and statisticians working in insurance and finance is a very fruitful field, one that yields unique theoretical models and practical applications, as well as new insights in the discussion of problems of national and international interest. This volume is addressed to academicians, researchers, Ph.D. students and professionals.

Modern risk management as practiced today faces significant obstacles-we argue-primarily due to the fundamental premise of the concept itself. It asserts that we are mainly dealing with measurable, quantifiable risks and that we can manage the uncontrollable by relying on formal control-based systems, which has produced a general view that (enterprise) risk management is a technical-scientific discipline. Strategic Risk Leadership offers a critique of the status quo, and encourages leaders, executives, and chief risk officers to find fresh approaches that can help them deal more proactively with what the future may hold. The book provides an overview of the history of risk management and current risk governance approaches as prescribed by leading risk management standards, such as COSO and ISO31000. This enables practitioners to challenge the frameworks and improve their adoption in practice introducing sustainable resilience as a (more) meaningful response to uncertain and unknowable conditions. The book shows how traditional thinking downplays the significance of human behavior and judgmental biases as key elements of major organizational exposures illustrated and explained through numerous case examples and studies. This book is essential reading for strategic risk managers to understand the requirements for effective risk governance practices in the contemporary and rapidly changing global risk landscape. Indeed, it is a valuable resource for all risk executives, leaders, and chief risk officers, as well as advanced students of risk management.

Index based insurance schemes can play a vital role in insuring poor people in developing countries against a multitude of risk. However, the concept doesn't go along without any obstacles. Matthias Roedl provides a theoretical framework of index based insurance schemes and further highlights where the latter distinguishes from a classic indemnity insurance. Thereby, scholars can gain a comprehensive theoretical insight into the topic, while practitioners are enabled to identify and understand fundamental challenges for their project upfront as well as to foster sound solutions.

Bislang war Ungarn in der vergleichenden Wohlfahrtsstaatsforschung kaum beachtet worden. Das Buch des an der Universitat Szeged (Ungarn) lehrenden Autors beschreibt nun die Entwicklung des ungarischen Wohlfahrtsstaates im 20. Jahrhundert, einschliesslich der kommunistischen Ara, und analysiert insbesondere deren konvergierenden und divergierenden Grundzuge in einem westeuropaischen vergleichenden Kontext. Neben der Ausgabenentwicklung wird auch die Entwicklung von Institutionen und sozialen Rechten untersucht. Aus dem Inhalt: Kap. 1: Changes in welfare expenditures Kap. 2: Major structural characteristics of welfare Kap. 3: Development of social rights Kap. 4: Organization and control Kap. 5: Determinants of welfare development Bibliography Tables Appendix"

This book, unique in its composition, reviews the academic empirical literature on how CDSs actually work in practice, including during distressed times of market crises. It also discusses the mechanics of single-name and index CDSs, the theoretical costs and benefits of CDSs, as well as comprehensively summarizes the empirical evidence on important aspects of these instruments of risk transfer. Full-time academics, researchers at financial institutions, and students will benefit from the dispassionate and comprehensive summary of the academic literature; they can read this book instead of identifying, collecting, and reading the hundreds of academic articles on the important subject of credit risk transfer using derivatives and benefit from the synthesis of the literature provided.

This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.

This book is written for the experienced portfolio manager and professional options traders. It is a practical guide offering how to apply options math in a trading world that demands mathematical measurement. Every options trader deals with an array of calculations: beginners learn to identify risks and opportunities using a short list of strategies, while researchers and academics turn to advanced technical manuals. However, almost no books exist for the experienced portfolio managers and professional options traders who fall between these extremes. Michael C. Thomsett addresses this glaring gap with The Mathematics of Options, a practical guide with actionable tools for the practical application of options math in a world that demands quantification. It serves as a valuable reference for advanced methods of evaluating issues of pricing, payoff, probability, and risk. In his characteristic approachable style, Thomsett simplifies complex hot button issues-such as strategic payoffs, return calculations, and hedging options-that may be mentioned in introductory texts but are often underserved. The result is a comprehensive book that helps traders understand the mathematic concepts of options trading so that they can improve their skills and outcomes.

In the first book of its kind, Turnbull traces the development and implementation of actuarial ideas, from the conception of Equitable Life in the mid-18th century to the start of the 21st century. This book analyses the historical development of British actuarial thought in each of its three main practice areas of life assurance, pensions and general insurance. It discusses how new actuarial approaches were developed within each practice area, and how these emerging ideas interacted with each other and were often driven by common external factors such as shocks in the economic environment, new intellectual ideas from academia and developments in technology. A broad range of historically important actuarial topics are discussed such as the development of the blueprint for the actuarial management of with-profit business; historical developments in mortality modelling methods; changes in actuarial thinking on investment strategy for life and pensions business; changing perspectives on the objectives and methods for funding Defined Benefit pensions; the application of risk theory in general insurance reserving; the adoption of risk-based reserving and the Guaranteed Annuity Option crisis at the end of the 20th century. This book also provides an historical overview of some of the most important external contributions to actuarial thinking: in particular, the first century or so of modern thinking on probability and statistics, starting in the 1650s with Pascal and Fermat; and the developments in the field of financial economics over the third quarter of the twentieth century. This book identifies where historical actuarial thought heuristically anticipated some of the fundamental ideas of modern finance, and the challenges that the profession wrestled with in reconciling these ideas with traditional actuarial methods. Actuaries have played a profoundly influential role in the management of the United Kingdom's most important long-term financial institutions over the last two hundred years. This book will be the first to chart the influence of the actuarial profession to modern day. It will prove a valuable resource for actuaries, actuarial trainees and students of actuarial science. It will also be of interest to academics and professionals in related financial fields such as accountants, statisticians, economists and investment managers.

Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Vastfjall, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.

This book is the first attempt to re-define objective risk. It addresses the cost of running out of capital as a generalized cost syndrome and explains how it is possible to describe this cost in such a way as to give it practical, real-life significance for personal finances, company finances and the economy as a whole. The discussion begins by presenting an intuitive and useful definition of risk: the probability of prospective capital shortfall. From this point it establishes a risk theory and expands the work of major thinkers such as Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes, and adds reserve capital as a new financial risk management tool, with an economic function that is different from savings. This book will be of interest to economists, politicians, and decision makers as well as to the general public.

This book explores the profound transformation that has taken place in European insurance legislation since January 2016. Expert contributions discuss the changes that have taken place in the supervision of insurance and reinsurance undertakings through an economic risk-based approach. They outline the European insurance market before going on to show how Solvency II and Insurance Distribution Directive (IDD) are expected to generate significant benefits and have a positive impact on all parties involved in the insurance industry, the supervisory authorities and the insured. They also show how Solvency II is likely to benefit the economy as a whole, promoting more efficient allocation of capital and risk in a financial stability framework. This volume will be of interest to academics and researchers in the field of insurance regulation.

This informative volume synthesizes the literatures on health economics, risk management, and health services into a concise guide to the financial and social basics of health insurance with an eye to its wide-scale upgrade. Its scope takes in concepts of health capital, strengths and limitations of insurance models, the effectiveness of coverage and services, and the roles of healthcare providers and government agencies in the equation. Coverage surveys the current state of group and public policies, most notably the effects of the Affordable Care Act on insurers and consumers and the current interest in universal coverage and single-payer plans. Throughout, the author provides systemic reasons to explain why today's health insurance fails so many consumers, concluding with reality-based recommendations for making insurance more valuable to both today's market and consumer well-being. Included among the topics: *Defining health insurance and healthcare finance. *Consuming and investing in health. *The scope of health insurance and its constraints. *Matching health insurance supply and demand. *The role of government in health insurance. *Ongoing challenges and the future of health insurance. Bringing a needed degree of objectivity to often highly subjective material, What Is Health Insurance (Good) For? is a call to reform to be read by health insurance researchers (including risk management insurance and health services research), professionals, practitioners, and policymakers.

This book draws readers' attention to the financial aspects of daily life at a corporation by combining a robust mathematical setting and the explanation and derivation of the most popular models of the firm. Intended for third-year undergraduate students of business finance, quantitative finance, and financial mathematics, as well as first-year postgraduate students, it is based on the twin pillars of theory and analytics, which merge in a way that makes it easy for students to understand the exact meaning of the concepts and their representation and applicability in real-world contexts. Examples are given throughout the chapters in order to clarify the most intricate aspects; where needed, there are appendices at the end of chapters, offering additional mathematical insights into specific topics. Due to the recent growth in knowledge demand in the private sector, practitioners can also profit from the book as a bridge-builder between university and industry. Lastly, the book provides useful information for managers who want to deepen their understanding of risk management and come to recognize what may have been lacking in their own systems.