Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Vastfjall, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.

Kidnap for ransom is a lucrative but tricky business. Millions of people live, travel, and work in areas with significant kidnap risks, yet kidnaps of foreign workers, local VIPs, and tourists are surprisingly rare and the vast majority of abductions are peacefully resolved - often for remarkably low ransoms. In fact, the market for hostages is so well ordered that the crime is insurable. This is a puzzle: ransoming a hostage is the world's most precarious trade. What would be the "right" price for your loved one - and can you avoid putting others at risk by paying it? What prevents criminals from maltreating hostages? How do you (safely) pay a ransom? And why would kidnappers release a potential future witness after receiving their money? Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business uncovers how a group of insurers at Lloyd's of London have solved these thorny problems for their customers. Based on interviews with industry insiders (from both sides), as well as hostage stakeholders, it uncovers an intricate and powerful private governance system ordering transactions between the legal and the criminal economies.

Risk compensation postulates that everyone has a "risk thermostat" and that safety measures that do not affect the setting of the thermostat will be circumvented by behaviour that re-establishes the level of risk with which people were originally comfortable. It explains why, for example, motorists drive faster after a bend in the road is straightened. Cultural theory explains risk-taking behaviour by the operation of cultural filters. It postulates that behaviour is governed by the probable costs and benefits of alternative courses of action which are perceived through filters formed from all the previous incidents and associations in the risk-taker's life.; "Risk" should be of interest to many readers throughout the social sciences and in the world of industry, business, engineering, finance and public administration, since it deals with a fundamental part of human behaviour that has enormous financial and economic implications.

Diese Studie untersucht den komplexen Zusammenhang zwischen Naturkatastrophen, individuellem Verhalten - in Form von individueller Risikobereitschaft und Vertrauensniveau - und der Nachfrage nach Mikroversicherungen. Entwicklungslander sind besonders anfallig fur die Auswirkungen von Naturkatastrophen und Klimawandel, da diese ihre Entwicklungsprozesse beeintrachtigen und die Bemuhungen zur Armutsbekampfung zuruckwerfen. Unter Verwendung eines einzigartigen Datensatzes fur das landliche Kambodscha, der auf einer Umfrage, experimentellen Spielen und einem diskreten Auswahlexperiment basiert, unterstreicht die Studie die Bedeutung von Wahrnehmungen, Erwartungen und psychologischen Faktoren in Entscheidungsprozessen mit erheblichen Folgen fur langfristige wirtschaftliche Perspektiven und die Armutsbekampfung.

The challenges of the current financial environment have revealed the need for a new generation of professionals who combine training in traditional finance disciplines with an understanding of sophisticated quantitative and analytical tools. Risk Management and Simulation shows how simulation modeling and analysis can help you solve risk management problems related to market, credit, operational, business, and strategic risk. Simulation models and methodologies offer an effective way to address many of these problems and are easy for finance professionals to understand and use. Drawing on the author s extensive teaching experience, this accessible book walks you through the concepts, models, and computational techniques.

How Simulation Models Can Help You Manage Risk More Effectively

Organized into four parts, the book begins with the concepts and framework for risk management. It then introduces the modeling and computational techniques for solving risk management problems, from model development, verification, and validation to designing simulation experiments and conducting appropriate output analysis. The third part of the book delves into specific issues of risk management in a range of risk types. These include market risk, equity risk, interest rate risk, commodity risk, currency risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, and strategic, business, and operational risks. The author also examines insurance as a mechanism for risk management and risk transfer. The final part of the book explores advanced concepts and techniques. The book contains extensive review questions and detailed quantitative or computational exercises in all chapters. Use of MATLAB(r) mathematical software is encouraged and suggestions for MATLAB functions are provided throughout.

Learn Step by Step, from Basic Concepts to More Complex Models

Packed with applied examples and exercises, this book builds from elementary models for risk to more sophisticated, dynamic models for risks that evolve over time. A comprehensive introduction to simulation modeling and analysis for risk management, it gives you the tools to better assess and manage the impact of risk in your organizations. The book can also serve as a support reference for readers preparing for CFA exams, GARP FRM exams, PRMIA PRM exams, and actuarial exams.

This book will be a "must" for people who want good knowledge of big data concepts and their applications in the real world, particularly in the field of insurance. It will be useful to people working in finance and to masters students using big data tools. The authors present the bases of big data: data analysis methods, learning processes, application to insurance and position within the insurance market. Individual chapters a will be written by well-known authors in this field.

The 2008 financial collapse, the expansion of corporate and private wealth, the influence of money in politics-many of Wall Street's contemporary trends can be traced back to the work of fourteen critical figures who wrote, and occasionally broke, the rules of American finance. Edward Morris plots in absorbing detail Wall Street's transformation from a clubby enclave of financiers to a symbol of vast economic power. His book begins with J. Pierpont Morgan, who ruled the American banking system at the turn of the twentieth century, and ends with Sandy Weill, whose collapsing Citigroup required the largest taxpayer bailout in history. In between, Wall Streeters relates the triumphs and missteps of twelve other financial visionaries. From Charles Merrill, who founded Merrill Lynch and introduced the small investor to the American stock market; to Michael Milken, the so-called junk bond king; to Jack Bogle, whose index funds redefined the mutual fund business; to Myron Scholes, who laid the groundwork for derivative securities; and to Benjamin Graham, who wrote the book on securities analysis. Anyone interested in the modern institution of American finance will devour this history of some of its most important players.

Actuaries must pass exams, but more than that: they must put knowledge into practice. This coherent book supports the Society of Actuaries' short-term actuarial mathematics syllabus while emphasizing the concepts and practical application of nonlife actuarial models. A class-tested textbook for undergraduate courses in actuarial science, it is also ideal for those approaching their professional exams. Key topics covered include loss modelling, risk and ruin theory, credibility theory and applications, and empirical implementation of loss models. Revised and updated to reflect curriculum changes, this second edition includes two brand new chapters on loss reserving and ratemaking. R replaces Excel as the computation tool used throughout - the featured R code is available on the book's webpage, as are lecture slides. Numerous examples and exercises are provided, with many questions adapted from past Society of Actuaries exams.

This book sets out in a clear and concise manner the central principles of insurance law in the Caribbean, guiding students through the complexities of the subject. This book features, among several other key themes, extensive coverage of: insurance regulation; life insurance; property insurance; contract formation; intermediaries; the claims procedure; and analysis of the substantive laws of several jurisdictions. Commonwealth Caribbean Insurance Law is essential reading for LLB students in Caribbean universities, students in CAPE Law courses, and practitioners.

Why do people buy health insurance? Conventional theory holds that people purchase insurance because they prefer the certainty of paying a small premium to the risk of getting sick and paying a large medical bill. Conventional theory also holds that any additional health care that consumers purchase because they have insurance is not worth the cost of producing it. Therefore, economists have promoted policies--copayments and managed care--to reduce consumption of this additional, seemingly low-value care.
This book presents a new theory of consumer demand for health insurance. It holds that people purchase insurance to obtain additional income when they become ill. In effect, insurance companies act to transfer insurance premiums from those who remain healthy to those who become ill. This additional income generates purchases of additional high-value care, often allowing sick persons to obtain life-saving care that they could not otherwise afford.
Regarding risk, the new theory relies on empirical studies showing that consumers actually prefer the risk of a large loss to incurring a smaller loss with certainty. Therefore, if consumers purchase insurance, it is not because they desire to avoid risk. Instead, the new theory suggests consumers simply pay a premium when healthy in exchange for a claim on additional income (effected when insurance pays for the medical care) if they become ill.
Health insurance is substantially more valuable to the consumer under the new theory. The new theory moreover implies that copayments and managed care--central health policies of the last 30 years--were directed at solving problems that largely did not exist. Because these policies either reduced the amount of income transferred to ill persons or limited access to valuable health care, they may have done more harm than good. The new theory also provides a solid theoretical justification for insuring the uninsured and for implementing national health insurance.

The 2008 financial collapse, the expansion of corporate and private wealth, the influence of money in politics-many of Wall Street's contemporary trends can be traced back to the work of fourteen critical figures who wrote, and occasionally broke, the rules of American finance. Edward Morris plots in absorbing detail Wall Street's transformation from a clubby enclave of financiers to a symbol of vast economic power. His book begins with J. Pierpont Morgan, who ruled the American banking system at the turn of the twentieth century, and ends with Sandy Weill, whose collapsing Citigroup required the largest taxpayer bailout in history. In between, Wall Streeters relates the triumphs and missteps of twelve other financial visionaries. From Charles Merrill, who founded Merrill Lynch and introduced the small investor to the American stock market; to Michael Milken, the so-called junk bond king; to Jack Bogle, whose index funds redefined the mutual fund business; to Myron Scholes, who laid the groundwork for derivative securities; and to Benjamin Graham, who wrote the book on securities analysis. Anyone interested in the modern institution of American finance will devour this history of some of its most important players.

This Volume of the AIDA Europe Research Series on Insurance Law and Regulation focuses on transparency as the guiding principle of modern insurance law. It consists of chapters written by leaders in the respective field, who address transparency in a range of civil and common law jurisdictions, along with overview chapters. Each chapter reviews the transparency principles applicable in the jurisdiction discussed. Whether expressly or impliedly, all jurisdictions recognize a duty on the part of the insured to make a fair presentation of the risk when submitting a proposal for cover to the insurers, although there is little consensus on the scope of that duty. Disputed matters in this regard include: whether it is satisfied by honest answers to express questions, or whether there is a spontaneous duty of disclosure; whether facts relating to the insured's character, as opposed to the nature of the risk itself, are to be presented to the insurers; the role of insurance intermediaries in the placement process; and the remedy for breach of duty. Transparency is, however, a much wider concept. Potential policyholders are in principle entitled to be made aware of the key terms of coverage and to be warned of hidden traps (such as conditions precedent, average clauses and excess provisions), but there are a range of different approaches. Some jurisdictions have adopted a "soft law" approach, using codes of practice for pre-contract disclosure, while other jurisdictions employ the rather nebulous duty of (utmost) good faith. Leaving aside placement, transparency is also demanded after the policy has been incepted. The insured is required to be transparent during the claims process. There is less consistency in national legislation regarding the implementation of transparency by insurers in the context of handling claims.

This open access book discusses the statistical modeling of insurance problems, a process which comprises data collection, data analysis and statistical model building to forecast insured events that may happen in the future. It presents the mathematical foundations behind these fundamental statistical concepts and how they can be applied in daily actuarial practice. Statistical modeling has a wide range of applications, and, depending on the application, the theoretical aspects may be weighted differently: here the main focus is on prediction rather than explanation. Starting with a presentation of state-of-the-art actuarial models, such as generalized linear models, the book then dives into modern machine learning tools such as neural networks and text recognition to improve predictive modeling with complex features. Providing practitioners with detailed guidance on how to apply machine learning methods to real-world data sets, and how to interpret the results without losing sight of the mathematical assumptions on which these methods are based, the book can serve as a modern basis for an actuarial education syllabus.

This book, the second one of three volumes, gives practical examples by a number of use cases showing how to take first steps in the digital journey of banks and insurance companies. The angle shifts over the volumes from a business-driven approach in "Disruption and DNA" to a strong technical focus in "Data Storage, Processing and Analysis", leaving "Digitalization and Machine Learning Applications" with the business and technical aspects in-between. This second volume mainly emphasizes use cases as well as the methods and technologies applied to drive digital transformation (such as processes, leveraging computational power and machine learning models).

This book encourages insurance companies and regulators to explore offering Islamic insurance to boost the insurance industry in India. The distinctive features of Takaful also make it appealing even to non-Muslims. According to the 2012 World Takaful Report, India has immense potential for Takaful is based on the size of its Muslim population and the growth of its economy. However, it is surprising that Takaful has yet to be introduced in India since it has been offered in non-majority Muslim countries, such as Singapore, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. When the concept and practice of Takaful are examined, it is free from interest, uncertainty, and gambling. These are the main elements prohibited in Islam. However, it has been evidenced that these elements are also banned in teaching other religions believed by the Indians. Given this landscape, this book fills the gap in research on the viability of Takaful in India, focusing on its empirical aspects by examining the perception of Indian insurance operators toward Takaful.

Insurance Economics brings together the economic analysis of decision making under risk, risk management and demand for insurance among individuals and corporations, objectives pursued and management tools used by insurance companies, the regulation of insurance, and the division of labor between private and social insurance. Appropriate both for advanced undergraduate and graduate students of economics, management, and finance, this text provides the background required to understand current research. Predictions derived from theoretical arguments are not merely stated, but also related to empirical evidence. Throughout the book, conclusions summarize key results, helping readers to check their knowledge and comprehension. Issues discussed include paradoxes in decision making under risk and attempts at their resolution, moral hazard and adverse selection including the possibility of a "death spiral", and future challenges to both private and social insurance such as globalization and the availability of genetic information. This second edition has been extensively revised. Most importantly, substantial content has been added to represent the evolution of risk-related research. A new chapter, Insurance Demand II: Nontraditional Approaches, provides a timely addition in view of recent developments in risk theory and insurance. Previous discussions of Enterprise Risk Management, long-term care insurance, adverse selection, and moral hazard have all been updated. In an effort to expand the global reach of the text, evidence and research from the U.S. and China have also been added.

Investing in Life considers the creation and expansion of the American life insurance industry from its early origins in the 1810s through the 1860s and examines how its growth paralleled and influenced the emergence of the middle class. Using the economic instability of the period as her backdrop, Sharon Ann Murphy also analyzes changing roles for women; the attempts to adapt slavery to an urban, industrialized setting; the rise of statistical thinking; and efforts to regulate the business environment. Her research directly challenges the conclusions of previous scholars who have dismissed the importance of the earliest industry innovators while exaggerating clerical opposition to life insurance. Murphy examines insurance as both a business and a social phenomenon. She looks at how insurance companies positioned themselves within the marketplace, calculated risks associated with disease, intemperance, occupational hazard, and war, and battled fraud, murder, and suicide. She also discusses the role of consumers-their reasons for purchasing life insurance, their perceptions of the industry, and how their desires and demands shaped the ultimate product.

This book is devoted to the mathematical methods of metamodeling that can be used to speed up the valuation of large portfolios of variable annuities. It is suitable for advanced undergraduate students, graduate students, and practitioners. It is the goal of this book to describe the computational problems and present the metamodeling approaches in a way that can be accessible to advanced undergraduate students and practitioners. To that end, the book will not only describe the theory of these mathematical approaches, but also present the implementations.

The increasing complexity of insurance and reinsurance products has seen a growing interest amongst actuaries in the modelling of dependent risks. For efficient risk management, actuaries need to be able to answer fundamental questions such as: Is the correlation structure dangerous? And, if yes, to what extent? Therefore tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence between different risks are vital. Combining coverage of stochastic order and risk measure theories with the basics of risk management and stochastic dependence, this book provides an essential guide to managing modern financial risk.
* Describes how to model risks in incomplete markets, emphasising insurance risks.
* Explains how to measure and compare the danger of risks, model their interactions, and measure the strength of their association.
* Examines the type of dependence induced by GLM-based credibility models, the bounds on functions of dependent risks, and probabilistic distances between actuarial models.
* Detailed presentation of risk measures, stochastic orderings, copula models, dependence concepts and dependence orderings.
* Includes numerous exercises allowing a cementing of the concepts by all levels of readers.
* Solutions to tasks as well as further examples and exercises can be found on a supporting website.
An invaluable reference for both academics and practitioners alike, Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks will appeal to all those eager to master the up-to-date modelling tools for dependent risks. The inclusion of exercises and practical examples makes the book suitable for advanced courses on risk management in incomplete markets. Traders looking for practical advice on insurance markets will also find much of interest.