Presenting innovative modelling approaches to the analysis of fiscal policy and government debt, this book moves beyond previous models that have relied upon the assumption that various age-specific rates and policy variables remain unchanged when it comes to generating government expenditures and tax revenues. As a result of population ageing, current policy settings in many countries are projected to lead to unsustainable levels of public debt; Tax Policy and Uncertainty explores models that allow for feedbacks and uncertainty to combat this. Applicable to any country, the models in the book explore the optimal timing and extent of tax changes in the face of anticipated high future debt. Chapters produce stochastic debt projections, including probability distribution of debt ratios at each point in time. It also offers important analysis of fiscal policy trade-offs as well as providing advice on when and by how much tax rates should be increased. Economics scholars focusing on fiscal policy will appreciate the improved models in this book that allow both for uncertainty and feedback effects arising from responses to increased debt. It will also be helpful to economic policy advisors and economists in government departments.

As the operations of the world become more and more dependent on highly interconnected, massively complex, networked systems of computational devices, the need to develop a mathematical understanding of their properties and behaviours is increasingly pressing. Our approach, described in this monograph, is to combine the compositionality of formal specification -- using techniques from algebra, computation theory, logic, and probability theory -- with the control of level of abstraction afforded by the classical mathematical modelling method.

From climate change forecasts and pandemic maps to Lego sets and Ancestry algorithms, models encompass our world and our lives. In her thought-provoking new book, Annabel Wharton begins with a definition drawn from the quantitative sciences and the philosophy of science but holds that history and critical cultural theory are essential to a fuller understanding of modeling. Considering changes in the medical body model and the architectural model, from the Middle Ages to the twenty-first century, Wharton demonstrates the ways in which all models are historical and political. Examining how cadavers have been described, exhibited, and visually rendered, she highlights the historical dimension of the modified body and its depictions. Analyzing the varied reworkings of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem-including by monumental commanderies of the Knights Templar, Alberti's Rucellai Tomb in Florence, Franciscans' olive wood replicas, and video game renderings-she foregrounds the political force of architectural representations. And considering black boxes-instruments whose inputs we control and whose outputs we interpret, but whose inner workings are beyond our comprehension-she surveys the threats posed by such opaque computational models, warning of the dangers that models pose when humans lose control of the means by which they are generated and understood. Engaging and wide-ranging, Models and World Making conjures new ways of seeing and critically evaluating how we make and remake the world in which we live.

This attractive textbook with its easy-to-follow presentation provides a down-to-earth introduction to operations research for students in a wide range of fields such as engineering, business analytics, mathematics and statistics, computer science, and econometrics. It is the result of many years of teaching and collective feedback from students.The book covers the basic models in both deterministic and stochastic operations research and is a springboard to more specialized texts, either practical or theoretical. The emphasis is on useful models and interpreting the solutions in the context of concrete applications.The text is divided into several parts. The first three chapters deal exclusively with deterministic models, including linear programming with sensitivity analysis, integer programming and heuristics, and network analysis. The next three chapters primarily cover basic stochastic models and techniques, including decision trees, dynamic programming, optimal stopping, production planning, and inventory control. The final five chapters contain more advanced material, such as discrete-time and continuous-time Markov chains, Markov decision processes, queueing models, and discrete-event simulation.Each chapter contains numerous exercises, and a large selection of exercises includes solutions.

Basic mathematical techniques for partial differential equations (PDE) with applications to the life sciences form an integral part of the core curriculum for programs in mathematical biology. Yet, students in such a program with an undergraduate training in biology are typically deficient in any exposure to PDE. This volume starts with simple first order PDE and progresses through higher order equations and systems but with interesting applications, even at the level of a single first order PDE with constant coefficients.Similar to the two previous volumes by the author, another unique feature of the book is highlighting the scientific theme(s) of interest for the biological phenomena being modelled and analysed. In addition to temporal evolution of a biological phenomenon, its limiting equilibrium states and their stability, the possibility of locational variations leads to a study of additional themes such as (signal and wave) propagation, spatial patterning and robustness. The requirement that biological developments are relatively insensitive to sustained environmental changes provides an opportunity to examine the issue of feedback and robustness not encountered in the previous two volumes of this series.

The book addresses optimization in the petroleum industry from a practical, large-scale-application-oriented point of view. The models and techniques presented help to optimize the limited resources in the industry in order to maximize economic benefits, ensure operational safety, and reduce environmental impact. The book discusses several important real-life applications of optimization in the petroleum industry, ranging from the scheduling of personnel time to the blending of gasoline. It covers a wide spectrum of relevant activities, including drilling, producing, maintenance, and distribution. The text begins with an introductory overview of the petroleum industry and then of optimization models and techniques. The main body of the book details a variety of applications of optimization models and techniques within the petroleum industry. Applied  Optimization in the Petroleum Industry helps readers to find effective optimization-based solutions to their own practical problems in a large and important industrial sector, still the main source of the world’s energy and the source of raw materials for a wide variety of industrial and consumer products.

Communicable diseases have been an important part of human history. Epidemics afflicted populations, causing many deaths before gradually fading away and emerging again years after. Epidemics of infectious diseases are occurring more often, and spreading faster and further than ever, in many different regions of the world. The scientific community, in addition to its accelerated efforts to develop an effective treatment and vaccination, is also playing an important role in advising policymakers on possible non-pharmacological approaches to limit the catastrophic impact of epidemics using mathematical and machine learning models. Controlling Epidemics With Mathematical and Machine Learning Models provides mathematical and machine learning models for epidemical diseases, with special attention given to the COVID-19 pandemic. It gives mathematical proof of the stability and size of diseases. Covering topics such as compartmental models, reproduction number, and SIR model simulation, this premier reference source is an essential resource for statisticians, government officials, health professionals, epidemiologists, sociologists, students and educators of higher education, librarians, researchers, and academicians.

This work presents the guiding principles of Integral Transforms needed for many applications when solving engineering and science problems. As a modern approach to Laplace Transform, Fourier series and Z-Transforms it is a valuable reference for professionals and students alike.

Within the field of modeling complex objects in natural sciences, which considers systems that consist of a large number of interacting parts, a good tool for analyzing and fitting models is the theory of random evolutionary systems, considering their asymptotic properties and large deviations. In Random Evolutionary Systems we consider these systems in terms of the operators that appear in the schemes of their diffusion and the Poisson approximation. Such an approach allows us to obtain a number of limit theorems and asymptotic expansions of processes that model complex stochastic systems, both those that are autonomous and those dependent on an external random environment. In this case, various possibilities of scaling processes and their time parameters are used to obtain different limit results.

This book focuses on the emergence of creative ideas from cognitive and social dynamics. In particular, it presents data, models, and analytical methods grounded in a network dynamics approach. It has long been hypothesized that innovation arises from a recombination of older ideas and concepts, but this has been studied primarily at an abstract level. In this book, we consider the networks underlying innovation - from the brain networks supporting semantic cognition to human networks such as brainstorming groups or individuals interacting through social networks - and relate the emergence of ideas to the structure and dynamics of these networks. Methods described include experimental studies with human participants, mathematical evaluation of novelty from group brainstorming experiments, neurodynamical modeling of conceptual combination, and multi-agent modeling of collective creativity. The main distinctive features of this book are the breadth of perspectives considered, the integration of experiments with theory, and a focus on the combinatorial emergence of ideas.

Following the recent financial crisis, risk management in financial institutions, particularly in banks, has attracted widespread attention and discussion. Novel modeling approaches and courses to educate future professionals in industry, government, and academia are of timely relevance. This book introduces an innovative concept and methodology developed by the authors: active risk management. It is suitable for graduate students in mathematical finance/financial engineering, economics, and statistics as well as for practitioners in the fields of finance and insurance. The book s website features the data sets used in the examples along with various exercises."

The focus of these conference proceedings is on research, development, and applications in the fields of numerical geometry, scientific computing and numerical simulation, particularly in mesh generation and related problems. In addition, this year's special focus is on Delaunay triangulations and their applications, celebrating the 130th birthday of Boris Delaunay. In terms of content, the book strikes a balance between engineering algorithms and mathematical foundations. It presents an overview of recent advances in numerical geometry, grid generation and adaptation in terms of mathematical foundations, algorithm and software development and applications. The specific topics covered include: quasi-conformal and quasi-isometric mappings, hyperelastic deformations, multidimensional generalisations of the equidistribution principle, discrete differential geometry, spatial and metric encodings, Voronoi-Delaunay theory for tilings and partitions, duality in mathematical programming and numerical geometry, mesh-based optimisation and optimal control methods. Further aspects examined include iterative solvers for variational problems and algorithm and software development. The applications of the methods discussed are multidisciplinary and include problems from mathematics, physics, biology, chemistry, material science, and engineering.

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) have gained popularity in the scientific community due to their capabilities in modeling and decision making for complex problems.This book presents a novel algorithm called glassoFCM to enable automatic learning of FCM models from data. Specifically, glassoFCM is a combination of two methods, glasso (a technique originated from machine learning) for data modeling and FCM simulation for decision making. The book outlines that glassoFCM elaborates simple, accurate, and more stable models that are easy to interpret and offer meaningful decisions. The research results presented are based on an investigation related to a real-world business intelligence problem to evaluate characteristics that influence employee work readiness.Finally, this book provides readers with a step-by-step guide of the 'fcm' package to execute and visualize their policies and decisions through the FCM simulation process.

Probability theory has diverse applications in a plethora of fields, including physics, engineering, computer science, chemistry, biology and economics. This book will familiarize students with various applications of probability theory, stochastic modeling and random processes, using examples from all these disciplines and more. The reader learns via case studies and begins to recognize the sort of problems that are best tackled probabilistically. The emphasis is on conceptual understanding, the development of intuition and gaining insight, keeping technicalities to a minimum. Nevertheless, a glimpse into the depth of the topics is provided, preparing students for more specialized texts while assuming only an undergraduate-level background in mathematics. The wide range of areas covered - never before discussed together in a unified fashion - includes Markov processes and random walks, Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, noise, generalized central limit theorem and extreme values statistics, random matrix theory and percolation theory.

This book summarizes recent inventions, provides guidelines and recommendations, and demonstrates many practical applications of homomorphic encryption. This collection of papers represents the combined wisdom of the community of leading experts on Homomorphic Encryption. In the past 3 years, a global community consisting of researchers in academia, industry, and government, has been working closely to standardize homomorphic encryption. This is the first publication of whitepapers created by these experts that comprehensively describes the scientific inventions, presents a concrete security analysis, and broadly discusses applicable use scenarios and markets. This book also features a collection of privacy-preserving machine learning applications powered by homomorphic encryption designed by groups of top graduate students worldwide at the Private AI Bootcamp hosted by Microsoft Research. The volume aims to connect non-expert readers with this important new cryptographic technology in an accessible and actionable way. Readers who have heard good things about homomorphic encryption but are not familiar with the details will find this book full of inspiration. Readers who have preconceived biases based on out-of-date knowledge will see the recent progress made by industrial and academic pioneers on optimizing and standardizing this technology. A clear picture of how homomorphic encryption works, how to use it to solve real-world problems, and how to efficiently strengthen privacy protection, will naturally become clear.

This book provides application of multi criteria decision making techniques for managerial discretion. With this book, a concerted platform has been provided for several peers and other management organizations to understand and implement these tools and deal with the practical problems in a better way so as to provide more robust managerial decision making.

This book documents ongoing research and theorizing in the sub-field of mathematics education devoted to the teaching and learning of mathematical modelling and applications. Mathematical modelling provides a way of conceiving and resolving problems in people's everyday lives as well as sophisticated new problems for society at large. Mathematical tradition in China that emphasizes algorithm and computation has now seen a renaissance in mathematical modelling and applications where China has made significant progress with its economy, science and technology. In recent decades, teaching and learning of mathematical modelling as well as contests in mathematical modelling have been flourishing at different levels of education in China. Today, teachers and researchers in China become keener to learn from their colleagues from Western countries and other parts of the world in research and teaching of mathematical modelling and applications. The book provides a dialogue and communication between colleagues from across the globe with new impetus and resources for mathematical modelling education and its research in both West and East with new ideas on modelling teaching and practices, inside and outside classrooms. All authors of this book are members of the International Community of Teachers of Mathematical Modelling and Applications (ICTMA), the peak research body into researching the teaching, assessing and learning of mathematical modelling at all levels of education from the early years to tertiary education as well as in the workplace. The book is of interest to researchers, mathematics educators, teacher educators, education administrators, policy writers, curriculum developers, professional developers, in-service teachers and pre-service teachers including those interested in mathematical literacy.