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Inside a Modern Macroeconometric Model - A Guide to the Murphy Model (Hardcover, 2nd rev. and enlarged ed. 1997)
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Inside a Modern Macroeconometric Model - A Guide to the Murphy Model (Hardcover, 2nd rev. and enlarged ed. 1997)
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As Ken Wallis (1993) has pOinted out, all macroeconomic forecasters
and policy analysts use economic models. That is, they have a way
of going from assumptions about macroeconomic policy and the
international environment, to a prediction of the likely future
state of the economy. Some people do this in their heads.
Increasingly though, forecasting and policy analysis is based on a
formal, explicit model, represented by a set of mathematical
equations and solved by computer. This provides a framework for
handling, in a consistent and systematic manner, the
ever-increasing amounts of relevant information. Macroeconometric
modelling though, is an inexact science. A manageable model must
focus only on the major driving forces in a complex economy made up
of millions of households and fIrms. International economic
agencies such as the IMF and OECD, and most treasuries and central
banks in western countries, use macroeconometric models in their
forecasting and policy analysis. Models are also used for teaching
and research in universities, as well as for commercial forecasting
in the private sector.
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