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Books > Reference & Interdisciplinary > Communication studies > Decision theory > Risk assessment
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True Warnings and False Alarms - Evaluating Fears about the Health Risks of Technology, 1948-1971 (Paperback)
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True Warnings and False Alarms - Evaluating Fears about the Health Risks of Technology, 1948-1971 (Paperback)
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Given time, scientists reach consensus about the truth or falsity
of a wide range of alleged hazards. Today, there is broad agreement
that CFCs destroy stratospheric ozone. On the other hand, research
does not support claims that electromagnetic fields from
transmission lines cause a noticeable increase of leukemia. But new
allegations continuously arise. Are manufactured chemicals in the
environment distorting normal hormonal processes in our bodies? Are
genetically modified foods a cause for concern? Addressing one of
the most vexing problems in risk policy, Allan Mazur asks how we
can tell, at an early stage, how seriously we should take a new
warning. To identify hallmarks that could help predict the truth or
falsity of an alleged hazard, Mazur analyzes 31 health warnings
raised during the 1950s and 1960s about diverse technologies,
including fluoridation, DDT, cyclamate, nuclear weapons testing,
and birth control pills. Among his considerations are the initial
source of an alarm, the biases held by its primary 'sponsors, ' and
the type of media coverage it receives. With 30 to 50 years of
hindsight, he identifies characteristics - apparent from the outset
of a controversy - that most effectively distinguish true warnings
from false alarms. Early recognition and a timely response to a
genuine hazard are important to protect our environment, health,
and economic well-being. But if we act quickly and a warning turns
out to be false, money is wasted, people are needlessly frightened,
regulators lose credibility, and our ability to appropriately
handle the next set of risks is compromised. Mazur's findings do
not provide certainty about which of today's warnings will prove
true and which will prove false. But they do help us to make
informed judgments about where it is best and most reasonable to
direct our worries and resources.
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