Macroevolutionary inference has historically been treated as a
two-step process, involving the inference of a tree, and then
inference of a macroevolutionary model using that tree. Newer
models blend the two steps. These methods make more complete use of
fossils than the previous generation of Bayesian phylogenetic
models. They also involve many more parameters than prior models,
including parameters about which empiricists may have little
intuition. In this Element, we set forth a framework for fitting
complex, hierarchical models. The authors ultimately fit and use a
joint tree and diversification model to estimate a dated phylogeny
of the Cincta (Echinodermata), a morphologically distinct group of
Cambrian echinoderms that lack the fivefold radial symmetry
characteristic of extant members of the phylum. Although the
phylogeny of cinctans remains poorly supported in places, this
Element shows how models of character change and diversification
contribute to understanding patterns of phylogenetic relatedness
and testing macroevolutionary hypotheses.
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