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Deterrence and Security in the 21st Century - China, Britain, France, and the Enduring Legacy of the Nuclear Revolution (Paperback, 1 New Ed)
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Deterrence and Security in the 21st Century - China, Britain, France, and the Enduring Legacy of the Nuclear Revolution (Paperback, 1 New Ed)
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Much recent writing about international politics understandably
highlights the many changes that have followed from the collapse of
the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. This book, by
contrast, analyzes an important continuity that, the author argues,
will characterize international strategic affairs well into the new
century: nuclear deterrence will remain at the core of the security
policies of the world's great powers and will continue to be an
attractive option for many less powerful states worried about
adversaries whose capabilities they cannot match. The central role
of nuclear deterrence persists despite the advent of a new
international system in which serious military threats are no
longer obvious, the use of force is judged irrelevant to resolving
most international disputes, and states' interests are increasingly
defined in economic rather than military terms. Indeed, the author
suggests why these changes may increase the appeal of nuclear
deterrence in the coming decades. Beginning with a reconsideration
of nuclear deterrence theory, the book takes issue with the usual
emphasis on the need for invulnerable retaliatory forces and
threats that leaders can rationally choose to carry out. The author
explains why states, including badly outgunned states, can rely on
nuclear deterrent strategies despite the difficulty they may face
in deploying invulnerable forces and despite the implausibility of
rationally carrying out their threats of retaliation. In the
subsequent empirical analysis that examines the security policies
of China, Britain, and France and taps recently declassified
documents, the author suggests that the misleading standard view of
what is often termed rational deterrence theory may well reflect
the experience, or at least aspirations, of the Cold War
superpowers more than the logic of deterrence itself. Case studies
assessing the nuclear deterrent policies of China, Britain, and
France highlight the reasons why their experience, rather than that
of the more frequently studied Cold War superpowers, better
reflects the strategic and economic factors likely to shape states'
security policies in the twenty-first century. The book concludes
by drawing out the implications of the author's theoretical and
empirical analysis for the future role of nuclear weapons.
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