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The Science and Management of Uncertainty - Dealing with Doubt in Natural Resource Management (Paperback)
Loot Price: R3,415
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The Science and Management of Uncertainty - Dealing with Doubt in Natural Resource Management (Paperback)
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Uncertainty can take many forms, can be represented in many ways,
and can have important implications in decision-making and policy
development. This book provides a rigorous scientific framework for
dealing with uncertainty in real-world situations, and provides a
comprehensive study of concepts, measurements, and applications of
uncertainty in ecological modeling and natural resource management.
The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of
uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with
practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk
analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete
information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty;
methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty;
practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert
knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in
decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when
dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world
ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts
and approaches. Case topics provide examples of structured
decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A
summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in
analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations.
Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.
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