The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide
range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both
the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as
diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns,
financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book,
Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas
to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and
when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures
seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or
weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different
view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years
before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of
cooperative speculation, which often translates into an
accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a
"bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in
leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he
unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that
the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes
major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in
the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea
Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in
1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987,
to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than
cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle
bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe.
Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine
understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book.
Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will
welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific
tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes
fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock
markets.
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