At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted
that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in
a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the
twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array
of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world
dominated by statistics.
Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't
learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and
uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of
an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some
common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of
statistics.
Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any
better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which
doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then
were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a
woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual
risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But
nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many
people will have to make important health decisions based on such
information and the interpretation of that information by their
doctors.
Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding
of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of
us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing
number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA
evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of
certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies,
investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors
of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.
To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more
understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For
example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk
of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means
that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening,
4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25
percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit
that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.
This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our
ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be
taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
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