Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts.
The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made.
This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gapexplanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes," are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models.
* New theory developed systematically.
* Many examples from diverse disciplines.
* Realistic representation of severe uncertainty.
* Multi-faceted approach to risk.
* Quantitative model-based decision theory.

A one-stop shop to answer your most pressing questions about what it takes to facilitate. Workshops, committees, teams, and study groups are a regular part of an educator's professional life, and any educator can find themselves in the facilitator role, with a responsibility to aid the group in achieving its goals. The Effective Facilitator's Handbook is here to help. Professional development expert Cathy A. Toll has written a guide for busy facilitators, starting with four simple rules for successful facilitation: listen, start with the end in mind, lead with productive tools, and stay organized. The processes, tools, and templates in each chapter are easy to apply and offer advice about how to create a welcoming environment, set the right tone, understand the group's dynamics, improve communication, and more. This book walks you through the unique purposes, pitfalls, and needs of specific types of groups, whether it's a professional development workshop, a committee focused on one decision or problem, a team that regularly collaborates for student success, or a study group learning about a specific issue. But Toll also considers the bigger picture and connects the patterns behind different types of facilitation skills that will serve you in a variety of situations and settings. As an effective facilitator, you'll be able to increase the value of group time, foster engagement, and help teachers improve their practice so that they can bring their best to the classroom each day.

Lara Buchak sets out an original account of the principles that govern rational decision-making in the face of risk. A distinctive feature of these decisions is that individuals are forced to consider how their choices will turn out under various circumstances, and decide how to trade off the possibility that a choice will turn out well against the possibility that it will turn out poorly. The orthodox view is that there is only one acceptable way to do this: rational individuals must maximize expected utility. Buchak's contention, however, is that the orthodox theory (expected utility theory) dictates an overly narrow way in which considerations about risk can play a role in an individual's choices. Combining research from economics and philosophy, she argues for an alternative, more permissive, theory of decision-making: one that allows individuals to pay special attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario (among other 'global features' of gambles). This theory, risk-weighted expected utility theory, better captures the preferences of actual decision-makers. Furthermore, it isolates the distinct roles that beliefs, desires, and risk-attitudes play in decision-making. Finally, contra the orthodox view, Buchak argues that decision-makers whose preferences can be captured by risk-weighted expected utility theory are rational. Thus, Risk and Rationality is in many ways a vindication of the ordinary decision-maker-particularly his or her attitude towards risk-from the point of view of even ideal rationality.

Students learning math are expected to do more than just solve problems; they must also be able to demonstrate their thinking and share their ideas, both orally and in writing. As many classroom teachers have discovered, these can be challenging tasks for students. The good news is, mathematical communication can be taught and mastered. In Teaching Students to Communicate Mathematically, Laney Sammons provides practical assistance for K-8 classroom teachers. Drawing on her vast knowledge and experience as a classroom teacher, she covers the basics of effective mathematical communication and offers specific strategies for teaching students how to speak and write about math. Sammons also presents useful suggestions for helping students incorporate correct vocabulary and appropriate representations when presenting their mathematical ideas. This must-have resource will help you help your students improve their understanding of and their skill and confidence in mathematical communication.

What is a true learning organization, and how can your school become one? To excel, schools must embrace continuous school improvement and evaluation, as well as systems thinking. In Measuring What We Do in Schools, author Victoria L. Bernhardt details the critical role program evaluation serves in school success and how to implement meaningful evaluations that make a difference. She provides a roadmap of how to conduct comprehensive, systemwide evaluations of programs and processes; the tools needed to obtain usable, pertinent information; and how to use these data to expand teachers' and administrators' data-informed decision-making focus. Educators will learn how to Assess what is working and not working for students. Determine which processes need to change. Use data to improve practices on an ongoing basis. Although challenging for many schools, program evaluation and data analysis can begin with a single program or process, over time building on the expanded knowledge of the school's processes and the results they produce. An effective tool-The Program Evaluation Tool-enables schools to easily identify the purpose and intended outcomes of any school program, along with whom it serves, and how it should be implemented, monitored, and evaluated. These data can then be used to improve every aspect of a school's programs and processes and the outcomes achieved. Filled with practical strategies and featuring an in-depth case study, this book is designed to help educators see that evaluation work is logical and easy to do. They'll gain the confidence to do this work on a regular basis-working together to become a true learning organization.

In K-12 education, your job title or place of work should not prevent you from offering unique insights and pathways for creating change. You have a voice. Working in education today is to continually be on the precipice of change. However, far too many educators don't recognize the power they have to control and shape that change into what's best for students. Individual contributions create collective change, and you are an integral part of the change inevitably happening around you. With that in mind, Ashley Lamb-Sinclair invites you to identify and examine your personal leadership style (or change archetype), which includes what motivates you, how you respond to adversity, how you position yourself in the larger story, how you help move that story forward, and how you deal with the unexpected. How do you create change? You might be a Diplomat if you build relationships and value fairness and integrity. Champion if you are passionate about a cause and advocate for people and ideals. Creative if you approach things through novelty and ingenuity. Storyteller if you are thoughtful, attentive to details, and a clear communicator. Inventor if you are a forward thinker who operates through free experimentation. Sage if you are perceptive, insightful, and persuasive. Investigator if you have an analytical curiosity, ask probing questions, and conduct thorough research. Guardian if you have compassion for and are drawn to nurture and protect others.Many schools tend to ignore or underestimate the powerful catalysts for change that exist in their buildings. Don't let the change story continue without its most vital character-you! Find the lightning bolts of lasting change only you can wield. Become unstoppable!

Decision-making is an activity in which everyone is engaged on a more or less daily basis. In this book, Karin Brunsson and Nils Brunsson explore the intricacies of decision-making for individuals and organizations. When, how and why do they make decisions? The authors identify four distinct ways of reasoning that decision-makers use. The consequences of decisions vary: some promote action, others impede it, and some produce more responsibility than others. With in-depth discussions of rationality, justifications and hypocrisy, the authors show how organizational and political decision processes become over-complicated and difficult for both decision makers and external observers to understand. Decisions is a concise and easy-to-read introduction to a highly significant and intriguing topic. Based on research from several fields, it provides useful reading and essential knowledge for scholars and students throughout the social sciences and for everyone who wants to understand their own decisions and those of others.

Design thinking is a person-centered, problem-solving process that's a go-to for innovative businesses and gaining traction with school leaders interested in positive change. But understanding design thinking is one thing; actually putting it in play is something else. Authors Alyssa Gallagher and Kami Thordarson offer educators a practical guide for navigating design thinking's invigorating challenges and reaping its considerable rewards. They dig deep into the five-stage design thinking process, highlighting risk factors and recommending specific steps to keep you moving forward. The 25 downloadable and reproducible tools provide prompts and supports that will help you and your team: Identify change opportunities. Dig deeper into complex problems. Analyze topics to isolate specific challenges. Connect with and solve for user needs. Apply what you've learned about users to design challenges. Maximize brainstorming power. Create and employ solution prototypes. Pitch solutions and secure buy-in from stakeholders. Organize and analyze user feedback. Map out a solution's specific actions and resource requirements. Design Thinking in Play is a must-have for education leaders who are tired of waiting for someone else to solve their problems and ready to take action, have fun, and leverage collective insight to figure out what will really work for their school, their colleagues, and their students.

Schools across the United States and Canada are disrupting the adverse effects of poverty and supporting students in ways that enable them to succeed in school and in life. In this second edition, Parrett and Budge show you how your school can achieve similar results. Expanding on their original framework's still-critical concepts of actions and school culture, they incorporate new insights for addressing equity, trauma, and social-emotional learning. These fresh perspectives combine with lessons learned from 12 additional high-poverty, high-performing schools to form the updated and enhanced Framework for Collective Action. Emphasizing students' social, emotional, and academic learning as the hub for all action in high-performing, high-poverty schools, the authors describe how educators can work within the expanded Framework to address the needs of all students, but particularly those who live in poverty. Equipped with the Framework and a plethora of tools to build collective efficacy (self-assessments, high-leverage questions, action advice, and more), school and district leaders-as well as teachers, teacher leaders, instructional coaches, and other staff-can close persistent opportunity gaps and reverse longstanding patterns of low achievement.

What will it take to create truly contemporary learning environments that meet the demands of 21st-century society, engage learners, and produce graduates who are prepared to succeed in the world? What skills and capacities do teachers and leaders need to create and sustain such schools? What actions are necessary? Bold Moves for Schools offers a compelling vision that answers these questions-and action steps to make the vision a reality. Looking through the lenses of three pedagogies-antiquated, classical, and contemporary-authors Heidi Hayes Jacobs and Marie Hubley Alcock examine every aspect of K-12 education, including curriculum, instruction, assessment, and the program structures of space (both physical and virtual), time, and grouping of learners and professionals. In a new job description for teachers, Jacobs and Alcock highlight and expound on the following roles: Self-navigating professional learner. Social contractor. Media critic and media maker. Innovative designer. Globally connected citizen. Advocate for learners and learning. With thought-provoking proposals and practical strategies for change, Bold Moves for Schools sets educators on the path to redefining their profession and creating exciting new learning environments. The challenge is unprecedented. The possibilities are unlimited.

In this lively and practical book, seasoned educator Jonathan Cassie shines a spotlight on gamification, an instructional approach that's revolutionizing K-12 education. Games are well known for their ability to inspire persistence. The best ones feature meaningful choices that have lasting consequences, reward experimentation, provide a like-minded community of players, and gently punish failure and encourage risk-taking behavior. Players feel challenged, but not overwhelmed. A gamified lesson bears these same hallmarks. It is explicitly gamelike in its design and fosters perseverance, creativity, and resilience. Students build knowledge through experimentation and then apply what they've learned to fuel further exploration at higher levels of understanding. In this book, Cassie covers: What happens to student learning when it is gamified. Why you might want to gamify instruction for your students. The process for gamifying both your classroom and your lessons. If you want to see your students engaged, motivated, and excited about learning, join Jonathan Cassie on a journey that will add a powerful new set of ideas and practices to your teaching toolkit. The gamified classroom-an exciting new frontier of 21st century learning-awaits you and your students. Will you answer the call?

Decision-making is an activity in which everyone is engaged on a more or less daily basis. In this book, Karin Brunsson and Nils Brunsson explore the intricacies of decision-making for individuals and organizations. When, how and why do they make decisions? The authors identify four distinct ways of reasoning that decision-makers use. The consequences of decisions vary: some promote action, others impede it, and some produce more responsibility than others. With in-depth discussions of rationality, justifications and hypocrisy, the authors show how organizational and political decision processes become over-complicated and difficult for both decision makers and external observers to understand. Decisions is a concise and easy-to-read introduction to a highly significant and intriguing topic. Based on research from several fields, it provides useful reading and essential knowledge for scholars and students throughout the social sciences and for everyone who wants to understand their own decisions and those of others.

Providing an accessible introduction to the application of multi-criteria analysis in law, this book illustrates how simple additive weighing, a well known method in decision theory, can be used in problem structuring, analysis and decision support for overall assessments and balancing of interests in the context of law. Through clear illustrations and a variety of concrete examples, this book shows how simple additive weighing can be applied in any situation in which there are one or more objectives, multiple options and multiple decision criteria. Further demonstrating the use of fuzzy logic in conjunction with this method, Bengt Lindell adeptly shows the reader how extra-disciplinary methods have much to contribute in a legal decision-making context. The methods covered in this book help to balance the issues of intuition versus structural analysis, risk and uncertainty, and the merging of probability and utility in the context of law. Practical and engaging, this book will prove an indispensible guide for academics and scholars across many legal disciplines. Public and private decision makers will also benefit from its clear and concise approach, affording them new insights into the application of multi-criteria analysis in law.