Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts.
The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made.
This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gapexplanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes," are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models.
* New theory developed systematically.
* Many examples from diverse disciplines.
* Realistic representation of severe uncertainty.
* Multi-faceted approach to risk.
* Quantitative model-based decision theory.

A one-stop shop to answer your most pressing questions about what it takes to facilitate. Workshops, committees, teams, and study groups are a regular part of an educator's professional life, and any educator can find themselves in the facilitator role, with a responsibility to aid the group in achieving its goals. The Effective Facilitator's Handbook is here to help. Professional development expert Cathy A. Toll has written a guide for busy facilitators, starting with four simple rules for successful facilitation: listen, start with the end in mind, lead with productive tools, and stay organized. The processes, tools, and templates in each chapter are easy to apply and offer advice about how to create a welcoming environment, set the right tone, understand the group's dynamics, improve communication, and more. This book walks you through the unique purposes, pitfalls, and needs of specific types of groups, whether it's a professional development workshop, a committee focused on one decision or problem, a team that regularly collaborates for student success, or a study group learning about a specific issue. But Toll also considers the bigger picture and connects the patterns behind different types of facilitation skills that will serve you in a variety of situations and settings. As an effective facilitator, you'll be able to increase the value of group time, foster engagement, and help teachers improve their practice so that they can bring their best to the classroom each day.

Lara Buchak sets out an original account of the principles that govern rational decision-making in the face of risk. A distinctive feature of these decisions is that individuals are forced to consider how their choices will turn out under various circumstances, and decide how to trade off the possibility that a choice will turn out well against the possibility that it will turn out poorly. The orthodox view is that there is only one acceptable way to do this: rational individuals must maximize expected utility. Buchak's contention, however, is that the orthodox theory (expected utility theory) dictates an overly narrow way in which considerations about risk can play a role in an individual's choices. Combining research from economics and philosophy, she argues for an alternative, more permissive, theory of decision-making: one that allows individuals to pay special attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario (among other 'global features' of gambles). This theory, risk-weighted expected utility theory, better captures the preferences of actual decision-makers. Furthermore, it isolates the distinct roles that beliefs, desires, and risk-attitudes play in decision-making. Finally, contra the orthodox view, Buchak argues that decision-makers whose preferences can be captured by risk-weighted expected utility theory are rational. Thus, Risk and Rationality is in many ways a vindication of the ordinary decision-maker-particularly his or her attitude towards risk-from the point of view of even ideal rationality.

Students learning math are expected to do more than just solve problems; they must also be able to demonstrate their thinking and share their ideas, both orally and in writing. As many classroom teachers have discovered, these can be challenging tasks for students. The good news is, mathematical communication can be taught and mastered. In Teaching Students to Communicate Mathematically, Laney Sammons provides practical assistance for K-8 classroom teachers. Drawing on her vast knowledge and experience as a classroom teacher, she covers the basics of effective mathematical communication and offers specific strategies for teaching students how to speak and write about math. Sammons also presents useful suggestions for helping students incorporate correct vocabulary and appropriate representations when presenting their mathematical ideas. This must-have resource will help you help your students improve their understanding of and their skill and confidence in mathematical communication.

What is a true learning organization, and how can your school become one? To excel, schools must embrace continuous school improvement and evaluation, as well as systems thinking. In Measuring What We Do in Schools, author Victoria L. Bernhardt details the critical role program evaluation serves in school success and how to implement meaningful evaluations that make a difference. She provides a roadmap of how to conduct comprehensive, systemwide evaluations of programs and processes; the tools needed to obtain usable, pertinent information; and how to use these data to expand teachers' and administrators' data-informed decision-making focus. Educators will learn how to Assess what is working and not working for students. Determine which processes need to change. Use data to improve practices on an ongoing basis. Although challenging for many schools, program evaluation and data analysis can begin with a single program or process, over time building on the expanded knowledge of the school's processes and the results they produce. An effective tool-The Program Evaluation Tool-enables schools to easily identify the purpose and intended outcomes of any school program, along with whom it serves, and how it should be implemented, monitored, and evaluated. These data can then be used to improve every aspect of a school's programs and processes and the outcomes achieved. Filled with practical strategies and featuring an in-depth case study, this book is designed to help educators see that evaluation work is logical and easy to do. They'll gain the confidence to do this work on a regular basis-working together to become a true learning organization.

In K-12 education, your job title or place of work should not prevent you from offering unique insights and pathways for creating change. You have a voice. Working in education today is to continually be on the precipice of change. However, far too many educators don't recognize the power they have to control and shape that change into what's best for students. Individual contributions create collective change, and you are an integral part of the change inevitably happening around you. With that in mind, Ashley Lamb-Sinclair invites you to identify and examine your personal leadership style (or change archetype), which includes what motivates you, how you respond to adversity, how you position yourself in the larger story, how you help move that story forward, and how you deal with the unexpected. How do you create change? You might be a Diplomat if you build relationships and value fairness and integrity. Champion if you are passionate about a cause and advocate for people and ideals. Creative if you approach things through novelty and ingenuity. Storyteller if you are thoughtful, attentive to details, and a clear communicator. Inventor if you are a forward thinker who operates through free experimentation. Sage if you are perceptive, insightful, and persuasive. Investigator if you have an analytical curiosity, ask probing questions, and conduct thorough research. Guardian if you have compassion for and are drawn to nurture and protect others.Many schools tend to ignore or underestimate the powerful catalysts for change that exist in their buildings. Don't let the change story continue without its most vital character-you! Find the lightning bolts of lasting change only you can wield. Become unstoppable!

Design thinking is a person-centered, problem-solving process that's a go-to for innovative businesses and gaining traction with school leaders interested in positive change. But understanding design thinking is one thing; actually putting it in play is something else. Authors Alyssa Gallagher and Kami Thordarson offer educators a practical guide for navigating design thinking's invigorating challenges and reaping its considerable rewards. They dig deep into the five-stage design thinking process, highlighting risk factors and recommending specific steps to keep you moving forward. The 25 downloadable and reproducible tools provide prompts and supports that will help you and your team: Identify change opportunities. Dig deeper into complex problems. Analyze topics to isolate specific challenges. Connect with and solve for user needs. Apply what you've learned about users to design challenges. Maximize brainstorming power. Create and employ solution prototypes. Pitch solutions and secure buy-in from stakeholders. Organize and analyze user feedback. Map out a solution's specific actions and resource requirements. Design Thinking in Play is a must-have for education leaders who are tired of waiting for someone else to solve their problems and ready to take action, have fun, and leverage collective insight to figure out what will really work for their school, their colleagues, and their students.

Schools across the United States and Canada are disrupting the adverse effects of poverty and supporting students in ways that enable them to succeed in school and in life. In this second edition, Parrett and Budge show you how your school can achieve similar results. Expanding on their original framework's still-critical concepts of actions and school culture, they incorporate new insights for addressing equity, trauma, and social-emotional learning. These fresh perspectives combine with lessons learned from 12 additional high-poverty, high-performing schools to form the updated and enhanced Framework for Collective Action. Emphasizing students' social, emotional, and academic learning as the hub for all action in high-performing, high-poverty schools, the authors describe how educators can work within the expanded Framework to address the needs of all students, but particularly those who live in poverty. Equipped with the Framework and a plethora of tools to build collective efficacy (self-assessments, high-leverage questions, action advice, and more), school and district leaders-as well as teachers, teacher leaders, instructional coaches, and other staff-can close persistent opportunity gaps and reverse longstanding patterns of low achievement.

What will it take to create truly contemporary learning environments that meet the demands of 21st-century society, engage learners, and produce graduates who are prepared to succeed in the world? What skills and capacities do teachers and leaders need to create and sustain such schools? What actions are necessary? Bold Moves for Schools offers a compelling vision that answers these questions-and action steps to make the vision a reality. Looking through the lenses of three pedagogies-antiquated, classical, and contemporary-authors Heidi Hayes Jacobs and Marie Hubley Alcock examine every aspect of K-12 education, including curriculum, instruction, assessment, and the program structures of space (both physical and virtual), time, and grouping of learners and professionals. In a new job description for teachers, Jacobs and Alcock highlight and expound on the following roles: Self-navigating professional learner. Social contractor. Media critic and media maker. Innovative designer. Globally connected citizen. Advocate for learners and learning. With thought-provoking proposals and practical strategies for change, Bold Moves for Schools sets educators on the path to redefining their profession and creating exciting new learning environments. The challenge is unprecedented. The possibilities are unlimited.

The Talking Point is all about how people learn within groups. People can be much smarter than crowds if you measure "smart" as decision-making speed. Crowds can be much wiser than individuals if you measure wisdom by depth of understanding. It is possible to understand a great deal of information yet (or maybe because of this) you can also be slow to make decisions. If rushed, crowds will make poor decisions in spite of their wisdom. So... to get good group decisions on a time scale that will keep pace with policy development needs and social necessities, groups have to be supported so that their decision-making process can be accelerated. Much has been said and written about this problem over the years. It is dangerous to have the power of groups without the wisdom of groups, and it is tragic to have the wisdom of groups without the power of groups. The Talking Point presents a meeting point for the wisdom and power of groups through the use of Structured Dialogic Design. With hopeful intentions, as a culture we have poisoned the well just when we need it most. We have touted design charettes and stakeholder processes as engagement vehicles and then ignored, marginalized or corrupted the very input that we swore to hold as sacred. This has created a myth that large scale collaboration is not possible, and the myth has led to considerable disillusionment among would-be participants and could-be sponsors. Structured Dialogic Design seeks to bust the myth about our limited capabilities to sustain boundary spanning collaboration. To bust this myth, Structured Dialogic Design needs to usher in a new wave of collaborative planning. Scholars have identified the Structured Dialogic Design methodology as the cutting edge of "third phase" science - where the reality of a situation embraces interactions between objective findings and subjective intentions. The Talking Point provides a window for observing how Structured Dialogic Design has been put into practice and paints a panorama of the issues that confront complex social system design. This book is itself a bridge between scholarship and practice, written to be accessible yet anchored to major themes in cognitive psychology, information systems, social systems, and models of group learning. The book is an invitation for transformational leaders and those who support transformational leaders to pick up a new tool in the essential quest to put our nation and our world back on track toward sustainable futures. The Talking Point is a fresh source of water in a world that is thirsty for new ways of solving complex problems.

To commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the International School Leadership Development Network (ISLDN), this book is a compilation of the work conducted by network scholars. This volume is the first comprehensive overview of the studies conducted by ISLDN members engaged in examining how social justice leaders and leaders of high-needs schools address the social conditions, learning experiences, and performance of their students. Other international school leadership research consortia have emerged in the 21st century; however, the ISLDN is the second longest operating project, after the International Successful School Principalship Project (ISSPP). Since its creation in 2010, ISLDN scholars have delivered papers at a variety of international conferences and shared findings in research publications, including books and special issues of journals. Until now, ISLDN research findings have been disseminated separately for the project's two strands: (a) social justice leadership and (b) leadership in underperforming high-needs schools. Therefore, the purpose of the book is to document the history and evolution of the ISLDN and to provide descriptions and reflections of the project's research findings, methodologies, and collaborative processes across the two strands. This volume captures studies of school leaders from 19 countries representing six continents - Africa, Asia, Australia and Oceania, Europe, North America, and South America. The authors examine important external and internal contextual factors influencing schools in different cultural settings and provide insights about the values and practices of social justice leaders working in high-needs school settings. Numerous practical strategies are provided for school leaders working in schools with similar conditions. The concluding chapter by the co-editors synthesizes the structural factors, personal beliefs and values, and contextualized change management strategies that shape school leaders' actions aimed at ensuring the best learning outcomes for their students. Besides capturing the range of findings emerging from various ISLDN studies conducted over the past decade, several chapters critically examine the project's current contributions to the field. Authors suggest broadening the dissemination of our findings to increase the visibility of the project, expanding the research methods beyond qualitative interviews, incorporating studies from non-Anglophone countries, and augmenting the scope of our analyses and research focus. These researchers' journeys also reveal the obstacles to and benefits of engaging in these types of international collaborative research ventures.