The concept of rationality is a common thread through the human and social sciences -- from political science to philosophy, from economics to sociology, and from management science to decision analysis. But what counts as rational action and rational behavior?
Jose Luis Bermudez explores decision theory as a theory of rationality. Decision theory is the mathematical theory of choice and for many social scientists it makes the concept of rationality mathematically tractable and scientifically legitimate.
Yet rationality is a concept with several dimensions and the theory of rationality has different roles to play. It plays an action-guiding role (prescribing what counts as a rational solution of a given decision problem). It plays a normative role (giving us the tools to pass judgment not just on how a decision problem was solved, but also on how it was set up in the first place). And it plays a predictive/explanatory role (telling us how rational agents will behave, or why they did what they did).
This controversial but accessible book shows that decision theory cannot play all of these roles simultaneously. And yet, it argues, no theory of rationality can play one role without playing the other two. The conclusion is that there is no hope of taking decision theory as a theory of rationality.

Behind heart disease and cancer, medical error is now listed as one of the leading causes of death. Of the many medical errors that may lead to injury and death, diagnostic failure is regarded as the most significant. Generally, the majority of diagnostic failures are attributed to the clinicians directly involved with the patient, and to a lesser extent, the system in which they work. In turn, the majority of errors made by clinicians are due to decision making failures manifested by various departures from rationality. Of all the medical environments in which patients are seen and diagnosed, the emergency department is the most challenging. It has been described as a "wicked" environment where illness and disease may range from minor ailments and complaints to severe, life-threatening disorders. The Cognitive Autopsy is a novel strategy towards understanding medical error and diagnostic failure in 42 clinical cases with which the author was directly involved or became aware of at the time. Essentially, it describes a cognitive approach towards root cause analysis of medical adverse events or near misses. Whereas root cause analysis typically focuses on the observable and measurable aspects of adverse events, the cognitive autopsy attempts to identify covert cognitive processes that may have contributed to outcomes. In this clinical setting, no cognitive process is directly observable but must be inferred from the behavior of the individual clinician. The book illustrates unequivocally that chief among these cognitive processes are cognitive biases and other flaws in decision making, rather than knowledge deficits.

Featuring a substantial new introduction and two new chapters in the Postscript, this new edition makes one of the most significant works on power available in paperback and online for the first time. The author extensively engages with a body of new literature to elucidate and expand upon the original work, using rational choice theory to provide: * An examination of how, due to the collective action problem, groups can be powerless despite not facing any resistance * Timely engagement with feminist accounts of power * An explanation of the relationship of structure and agency and how to measure power comparatively across societies This book's unique interaction with both classical and contemporary debates makes it an essential resource for anyone teaching or studying power in the disciplines of sociology, philosophy, politics or international relations.

Game theory explains how to make good choices when different decision makers have conflicting interests. The classical approach assumes that decision makers are committed to making the best choices for themselves regardless of the effect on others, but such an approach is less appropriate when cooperation, compromise and negotiation are important. This book describes conditional games, a form of game theory that accommodates multiple stakeholder decision-making scenarios where cooperation and negotiation are significant issues and where notions of concordant group behavior are important. Using classical binary preference relations as a point of departure, the book extends the concept of a preference ordering that permits stakeholders to modulate their preferences as functions of the preferences of others. As these conditional preferences propagate through a group of decision makers, they create social bonds that lead to notions of group concordance. This book is intended for all students and researchers of decision theory and game theory.

'An endlessly fascinating tour of the many different factors influencing our decision-making and reasoning' David Robson, author of The Intelligence Trap 'An eye-opening and engaging richness of information that gives us a detailed insight into the strengths and weaknesses of human behaviour' Melissa Hogenboom, author of The Motherhood Complex Do emotions really cloud your thinking? Are habits holding you back? Is AI manipulating your mind? Does IQ help you think better? Every one of our thoughts, actions, moods and decisions is shaped by a whole array of factors, most of which we don't pay any attention to. From culture, time and language to genetics, technology and the microorganisms living inside us - even our own unconscious routines and habits - it's clear that we aren't always in the driving seat. The good news is that by better understanding the external and internal forces at work, we can minimise their impact on our lives. Drawing on rigorous interdisciplinary research, leading science journalists Miriam Frankel and Matt Warren bring us extraordinary stories and studies that open our eyes to the inner workings of the mind, challenge our thought processes and improve our decision-making. Most of all, Are You Thinking Clearly? is a rallying cry to know yourself, think broadly, think boldly - and to listen. 'Essential reading for anyone who wants to understand why their beliefs, mistakes, emotions and intuitions are the way they are' Richard Gray, BBC Future

Employees are increasingly asked to make sophisticated decisions about their pension and healthcare plans. Yet recent research shows that the decisions 'real' people make are often not those of the careful and well-informed economic agent conventionally portrayed in economic research. Rather, decision-makers tend to operate with flawed information and make some of the most critical financial decisions of their lives lacking a full understanding of the options before them and the implications of their decisions. Pension Design and Structure explores the assumptions behind commonly-held theories of retirement decision-making, in order to draw out the consequences of frontier research in behavioral finance and economics for those interested in better design and structure of retirement pensions. Using large datasets newly provided by financial service firms and real-world experiments, this volume tests the hypotheses of this research. This is the first book to explore the implications of behavioral finance research for pensions and retirement studies. The authors blend cutting-edge research from several fields including Finance, Economics, Management, Sociology, and Psychology. The book will be of interest to pension plan participants and sponsors, financial service groups responsible for pensions, and retirement system regulators.

While there are many features of a response-to-intervention framework, two stand out as solid reasons why school personnel should be familiar with its basic structure. One reason is that it provides a sound protocol to account for the performance of every student. A second reason is that it provides a structure that is useful for figuring out how to refine instruction so that it is individualized to meet each student's needs. While this book can be useful to both beginning and experienced teachers, as well as other professionals who provide direct and indirect services to students, it has been written first and foremost with preservice teachers in mind. It should prove to be useful to these teachers by enabling them to identify the following: 1. the knowledge and skills they need to acquire in their preparation program, 2. the questions they need to be prepared to ask and answer during a job interview, and 3. the work they need to perform in the role they will fill in a school that uses a response-to-intervention framework.

This book illustrates how to access the right information for making the best decisions during turbulent times. It is written from an experienced-based perspective that is beneficial for those looking for the development and improvement of the decision-making process. The approach is centered on the author's experience in developing and implementing effective and efficient approaches to decision-making in business and government. Based on those experiences, this book provides insights into how to improve the decision making process of your organization, whether it be large or small. For decision makers and those providing market information for making decisions, this book provide guidelines for a framework which includes systems thinking. For those interested in change management and corporate governance, the book presents examples where it was done well and some examples where it was not and the ensuring consequences. Praise for Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process... "This is an absolutely incredible book by a distinguished practitioner. The range of knowledge and experience that Vince Barabba has had is astounding. I urge everyone who is interested in complex, messy problems to read this amazing book." --Ian I. Mitroff "...Vince has masterfully blended the art of organizational respect with the science of data inquiry to drive change and realize strategic vision. A master storyteller, he does not just teach, his book brings his learnings to life in a meaningful way that if carefully listened to, can change the course of a career." -- Paul D'Alessandro Principal, Health Industries, PwC US "In his latest book, Vince Barabba integrates his vast knowledge from 50 years of dedicated work in both the public and private sectors in order to provide leaders with an actionable framework for radically improving how their organizations collect and use information to make the best decisions for all the wicked messes that now appear in our global village... This book can save your company from living in the dark with false assumptions about all your key stakeholders." -- Ralph H. Kilmann, Ph.D. CEO, Kilmann Diagnostics Co-Author, The Thomas-Kilmann Conflict Mode Instrument (TKI) "Absorbing just a few of the many smart ideas in this book will make you a better leader and decision maker. Thinking systemically about how the hard-earned lessons from Vince Barabba's brilliant career apply to your enterprise could make you a great one." - Chunka Mui Co-Author, A Brief History of a Perfect Future and Billion Dollar Lessons "...if you are interested in 'thinking in systems,' this book is for you. The 'On Star' story demonstrates to you how the initial product-centered thinking was proselytized to 'thinking in systems'." -- John Pourdehnad Visiting Professor, IESE Business School and Faulty of Systems Leadership, Thomas Jefferson University "In writing Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process: How to Avoid Burnt Toast, Vince Barabba is addressing the limits of knowledge management systems which enable 'organizations as usual' to share best practices on how to scrape toast faster and cheaper... The examples shared by Vince, from his first-hand experiences in corporate America or his services as a marketing consultant, contribute invaluable clarity to his goal of providing a "sketch of an Inquiry Center Learning and Support System" for those with the ambition to lead efforts to work smarter, not harder, firmly against the grain of 'organizations as usual'..." -- Bill Bellows, Ph.D., President, InThinking Services Adjunct Professor, California State University, Northridge and Southern Utah University Advisory Council Member and Former Deputy Director, The W. Edwards Deming Institute (R) "In his 'last book', Vince weaves the experiences and learning of a lifetime into whole cloth of insight and wisdom. He helps us to find relevant information from a rapidly changing world and apply it to making good decisions. This is a masterpiece of knowledge presented in a very entertaining way." -- Carl Spetzler Chairman, Strategic Decisions Group International LLC "This is a truly inspiring and mind changing book directly relevant for our times... Vince has shown through his remarkable work that business and government are a force for good when leaders think long term, work with, not against nature, and use their influence and resources for the many, not the few..." -- Osvald Bjelland Founder and President, Xynteo Founder, The Performance Theatre Foundation

Of all cancers, probably breast cancer is one of the most emotive. Increasingly patients with breast cancer are participating in the surgical and/or medical decision about their treatment. This involvement raises ethical issues about the rights of patients and their ability to give an informed consent, concerns about the process of communication betwen the medical staff and the patient, and also issues about the psychology of not only the woman with breast cancer, but also the doctor. This book addresses these issues relating to shared decision making and in particular those areas where a choice of treatment option involves some degree of risk/benefit analysis. It covers the ethical principles and then looks at the evidence that women who wish to participate and who are fully informed and who have taken part in the decision making process regarding their treatment, and who have a positive attitude towards their illness, tend to do better in the long run. Appropriate experts have contributed sections on the different treatment options to provide a brief overview of the treatments available and highlight the issues that should be considered by the woman and the doctor in the decision making process. There is also a section on the patients perspective and vignettes throughout to illustrate dilemmas the paitent faces and the importance of communication. Written for the surgical, medical and clinical oncologists who deal with breast cancer patients and senior nurses in breast cancer units, this book will also be of interest to trainees practising oncologists, and the women themselves who are interested in the shared decision making process in oncology generally.

Behavioural studies have shown that while humans may be the best decision makers on the planet, we are not quite as good as we think we are. We are regularly subject to biases, inconsistencies and irrationalities in our decision making. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support, published in 2009, explores perspectives from many different disciplines to show how we can help decision makers to deliberate and make better decisions. It considers both the use of computers and databases to support decisions as well as human aids to building analyses and some fast and frugal tricks to aid more consistent decision making. In its exploration of decision support it draws together results and observations from decision theory, behavioural and psychological studies, artificial intelligence and information systems, philosophy, operational research and organisational studies. This provides a valuable resource for managers with decision-making responsibilities and students from a range of disciplines, including management, engineering and information systems.

This book presents recent advances in the theory and application of the Best-Worst Method (BWM). It includes selected papers from the Second International Workshop on Best-Worst Method (BWM2021), held in Delft, The Netherlands from 10-11 June, 2021, and provides valuable insights on why and how to use BWM in a diverse range of applications including health, energy, supply chain management, and engineering. The book highlights the use of BWM in different settings including single decision-making vs group decision-making, and complete information vs incomplete and uncertain situations. The papers gathered here will benefit academics and practitioners who are involved in multi-criteria decision-making and decision analysis.

This book presents a consistent methodology for making decisions under uncertain conditions, as is almost always the case. Tools such as value of information and value of flexibility are explored as a means to make more complex and nuanced decisions. The book develops the complete formalism for assessing the value of acquiring information with two novel approaches. Firstly, it integrates the fuzzy characteristics of data, and secondly develops a methodology for assessing data acquisition actions that optimize the value of projects from a holistic perspective. The book also discusses the formalism for including flexibility in the project decision assessment. Practical examples of oil- and gas-related decision problems are included and discussed to facilitate the learning process. This book provides valuable advice and case studies applicable to engineers, researchers, and graduate students, particularly in the oil and gas industry and pharmaceutic industry.

Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity provides the first comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

Info-metrics is a framework for modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. It is an interdisciplinary framework situated at the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. In Advances in Info-Metrics, Min Chen, J. Michael Dunn, Amos Golan, and Aman Ullah bring together a group of thirty experts to expand the study of info-metrics across the sciences and demonstrate how to solve problems using this interdisciplinary framework. Building on the theoretical underpinnings of info-metrics, the volume sheds new light on statistical inference, information, and general problem solving. The book explores the basis of information-theoretic inference and its mathematical and philosophical foundations. It emphasizes the interrelationship between information and inference and includes explanations of model building, theory creation, estimation, prediction, and decision making. Each of the nineteen chapters provides the necessary tools for using the info-metrics framework to solve a problem. The collection covers recent developments in the field, as well as many new cross-disciplinary case studies and examples. Designed to be accessible for researchers, graduate students, and practitioners across disciplines, this book provides a clear, hands-on experience for readers interested in solving problems when presented with incomplete and imperfect information.

Dieses Open-Access-Buch zur Consumer Decision Neuroscience verfolgt das Ziel, durch die Integration neurowissenschaftlicher Methoden in die Kaufer- und Konsumentenverhaltensforschung die Identifikation verhaltensrelevanter, neurophysiologischer Variablen zu ermoeglichen, um darauf aufbauend eine Theorieerweiterung zu schaffen. In ausgewahlten Beitragen werden Kaufer- und Konsumentenentscheidungsprozesse anhand verschiedener methodischer, neurowissenschaftlich fundierter Herangehensweisen empirisch untersucht, um die Entscheidungsprozesse umfassend beschreiben, effektiver unterstutzen und erfolgreich vorhersagen zu koennen.

Individual decision making can often be wrong due to misinformation, impulses, or biases. Collective decision making, on the other hand, can be surprisingly accurate. In Democratic Reason, Helene Landemore demonstrates that the very factors behind the superiority of collective decision making add up to a strong case for democracy. She shows that the processes and procedures of democratic decision making form a cognitive system that ensures that decisions taken by the many are more likely to be right than decisions taken by the few. Democracy as a form of government is therefore valuable not only because it is legitimate and just, but also because it is smart. Landemore considers how the argument plays out with respect to two main mechanisms of democratic politics: inclusive deliberation and majority rule. In deliberative settings, the truth-tracking properties of deliberation are enhanced more by inclusiveness than by individual competence. Landemore explores this idea in the contexts of representative democracy and the selection of representatives. She also discusses several models for the "wisdom of crowds" channeled by majority rule, examining the trade-offs between inclusiveness and individual competence in voting. When inclusive deliberation and majority rule are combined, they beat less inclusive methods, in which one person or a small group decide. Democratic Reason thus establishes the superiority of democracy as a way of making decisions for the common good.

Teachers stand at the intersection of educational goals, directing students down the road to success or to the byways of diminished opportunities. They are the most important school variable effecting student achievement. Consequently, placing and retaining only qualified and effective teachers in our nation's classrooms is a critical responsibility of school leaders. Effective supervision and evaluation requires that the school leader possess the knowledge of effective instruction, exhibit skills in documentation of professional conduct, and embrace a professional approach with the will to place and keep students at the center of school policy and practice decisions. Supervising and evaluating teachers is a difficult, but essential work. Research shows that time and expertise are necessary to effectively supervise and to build a case for adverse employment decisions, when necessary. Threading the Evaluation Needle: The Documentation of Teacher Unprofessional Conduct addresses the legal and professional knowledge that structures discipline and dismissal in the public schools. The authors, based on their educational, legal, and research experience, provide templates for various types of documentation necessary to effectively build a case for discipline. This book seeks to give principals the tools and knowledge to institute in good faith a fair and accurate documentation system.

This book presents the concept of the double hierarchy linguistic term set and its extensions, which can deal with dynamic and complex decision-making problems. With the rapid development of science and technology and the acceleration of information updating, the complexity of decision-making problems has become increasingly obvious. This book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the latest research in the field, including measurement methods, consistency methods, group consensus and large-scale group consensus decision-making methods, as well as their practical applications. Intended for engineers, technicians, and researchers in the fields of computer linguistics, operations research, information science, management science and engineering, it also serves as a textbook for postgraduate and senior undergraduate university students.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation, GDN 2021, which was planned to be held in Toronto, ON, Canada, during June 6-10, 2021. The conference was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The field of Group Decision and Negotiation focuses on decision processes with at least two participants and a common goal but conflicting individual goals. Research areas of Group Decision and Negotiation include electronic negotiations, experiments, the role of emotions in group decision and negotiations, preference elicitation and decision support for group decisions and negotiations, and conflict resolution principles. The 12 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 74 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: pandemic responses; preference modeling for group decision and negotiation; conflict resolution; and collaborative decision making processes.

"Pullman offers his readers essential insights into how humans reason and make decisions. Both concise and far-reaching, his work teaches us how to challenge intuitive logic and examine the processes for deliberative reasoning. This text will prove foundational for students in their intellectual journey toward the development of real skills in critical thinking. By pointing to simple yet profound examples, Pullman's text is both readable and provocative as it challenges us to consider the very mechanisms by which we understand our own cognitive biases." --Bradley A. Hammer, Department of English and Comparative Literature, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

Eminently suited to classroom use as well as individual study, Roger Myerson's introductory text provides a clear and thorough examination of the models, solution concepts, results, and methodological principles of noncooperative and cooperative game theory. Myerson introduces, clarifies, and synthesizes the extraordinary advances made in the subject over the past fifteen years, presents an overview of decision theory, and comprehensively reviews the development of the fundamental models: games in extensive form and strategic form, and Bayesian games with incomplete information.

"Game Theory" will be useful for students at the graduate level in economics, political science, operations research, and applied mathematics. Everyone who uses game theory in research will find this book essential.