It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, "Rational Decisions" clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds.

The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies.

Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, "Rational Decisions" is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.

There is no shortage of books on decision making-books that tell you how irrational you are, how being rational is holding you back or how competing brain systems cause chaos with your ability to choose wisely. All of these make it difficult to decide how to decide. DECIDE cuts through the clutter. Part science and part practice, DECIDE follows Tremaine's decade long quest to answer the question: what is a good decision and how do I make one? The answer is illustrated with examples from her pioneering work in building decision-making systems for teams up to large multinational organisations. Tremaine's straight talk and use of the latest (and most reliable) research lead you on a path of discovery as you unpack your own decision-making process, plug the holes in it and learn new skills to ensure that you make the best possible decisions. DECIDE is an indispensable guide for individuals, teams and leaders.

This innovative textbook makes the tools and applications of game theory and strategic reasoning both fascinating and easy to understand. Each chapter focuses a specific strategic situation as a way of introducing core concepts informally at first, then more fully, with a minimum of mathematics. At the heart of the book is a diverse collection of strategic scenarios, not only from business and politics, but from history, fiction, sports, and everyday life as well. With this approach, students don't just learn clever answers to puzzles, but instead acquire genuine insights into human behaviour. Written for major courses in economics, business, political science, and international relations, this textbook is accessible to students across the undergraduate spectrum.

Braucht die Schule objektivierte Tests? Die Leistungstests der 70er Jahre sind durch die Oberstufenreform und die veranderten curricularen Voraussetzungen groesstenteils uberholt. Andererseits treten Tests als Mittel der Lernfoerderung durch Sprachstandsdiagnose zunehmend in den Vordergrund. Die Arbeit stellt die Entwicklung eines lernzielbezogenen Grammatiktests vor, der auf den Vorgaben der Richtlinien fur die Sekundarstufe 1 beruht. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden die Schwierigkeiten der Integration von Haupt- und Realschulern, die mit qualifiziertem Abschluss in die gymnasiale Oberstufe wechseln, dargestellt. Allein in Nordrhein-Westfalen sind dies jedes Jahr mehr als 8000 Schuler. In der vorliegenden Schrift werden erstmals die unterschiedlichen Voraussetzungen empirisch evaluiert und die Moeglichkeiten zur Lernfoerderung auf der Basis einer Diagnose aufgezeigt.

When making decisions, people naturally face uncertainty about the potential consequences of their actions due in part to limits in their capacity to represent, evaluate or deliberate. Nonetheless, they aim to make the best decisions possible. In Decision Theory with a Human Face, Richard Bradley develops new theories of agency and rational decision-making, offering guidance on how 'real' agents who are aware of their bounds should represent the uncertainty they face, how they should revise their opinions as a result of experience and how they should make decisions when lacking full awareness of, or precise opinions on relevant contingencies. He engages with the strengths and flaws of Bayesian reasoning, and presents clear and comprehensive explorations of key issues in decision theory, from belief and desire to semantics and learning. His book draws on philosophy, economics, decision science and psychology, and will appeal to readers in all of these disciplines.