This book presents recent advances in the theory and application of the Best-Worst Method (BWM). It includes selected papers from the Second International Workshop on Best-Worst Method (BWM2021), held in Delft, The Netherlands from 10-11 June, 2021, and provides valuable insights on why and how to use BWM in a diverse range of applications including health, energy, supply chain management, and engineering. The book highlights the use of BWM in different settings including single decision-making vs group decision-making, and complete information vs incomplete and uncertain situations. The papers gathered here will benefit academics and practitioners who are involved in multi-criteria decision-making and decision analysis.

This book presents a consistent methodology for making decisions under uncertain conditions, as is almost always the case. Tools such as value of information and value of flexibility are explored as a means to make more complex and nuanced decisions. The book develops the complete formalism for assessing the value of acquiring information with two novel approaches. Firstly, it integrates the fuzzy characteristics of data, and secondly develops a methodology for assessing data acquisition actions that optimize the value of projects from a holistic perspective. The book also discusses the formalism for including flexibility in the project decision assessment. Practical examples of oil- and gas-related decision problems are included and discussed to facilitate the learning process. This book provides valuable advice and case studies applicable to engineers, researchers, and graduate students, particularly in the oil and gas industry and pharmaceutic industry.

Classical decision theory evaluates entire worlds, specified so as to include everything a decision-maker cares about. Thus applying decision theory requires performing computations far beyond an ordinary decision-maker's ability. In this book Paul Weirich explains how individuals can simplify and streamline their choices. He shows how different 'parts' of options (intrinsic, temporal, spatiotemporal, causal) are separable, so that we can know what difference one part makes to the value of an option, regardless of what happens in the other parts. He suggests that the primary value of options is found in basic intrinsic attitudes towards outcomes: desires, aversions, or indifferences. And using these two facts he argues that we need only compare small parts of the options we face in order to make a rational decision. This important book will interest readers in decision theory, economics, and the behavioral sciences.

Nils Brunsson is one of the leading European organization theorists who has written and researched decision-making in organizations. He has often questioned the rationality of decision-making, and argued that it is as important to understand other consequences of decision-making apart from choice - such things as mobilizing action, allocating responsibility, and legitimizing organizations. These consequences of decisions can influence decision-making and the assumptions about feasible norms that provide their context. Decisions often run counter to actions and are part of what Brunsson calls organizational hypocrisy. Decisions can substitute for action, or decrease the probability of the action they call for. The norm of rationality is far from obvious: sometimes decision-makers can recommend systematic irrationality. This book collects together a wide-range of Nils Brunsson's most important writing on decision-making, brought together in one volume for the first time, with an introduction from the author.

Game theory explains how to make good choices when different decision makers have conflicting interests. The classical approach assumes that decision makers are committed to making the best choices for themselves regardless of the effect on others, but such an approach is less appropriate when cooperation, compromise and negotiation are important. This book describes conditional games, a form of game theory that accommodates multiple stakeholder decision-making scenarios where cooperation and negotiation are significant issues and where notions of concordant group behavior are important. Using classical binary preference relations as a point of departure, the book extends the concept of a preference ordering that permits stakeholders to modulate their preferences as functions of the preferences of others. As these conditional preferences propagate through a group of decision makers, they create social bonds that lead to notions of group concordance. This book is intended for all students and researchers of decision theory and game theory.

'One of the wonder women of our emergency services' Glamour

'Homeless as a teenager, Sabrina Cohen-Hatton has spent the last eighteen years dealing with everything from fires to car crashes and terrorist attacks. Who better to write a book about life-or-death situations?' Guardian

Dr Sabrina Cohen-Hatton has been a firefighter for eighteen years. She decides which of her colleagues rush into a burning building and how they confront the blaze. She makes the call to evacuate if she believes the options have been exhausted or that the situation has escalated beyond hope.

Taking us to the very heart of firefighting, she immerses us in this extraordinary world; from scenes of devastation and crisis, through triumphs of bravery, to the quieter moments when she questions herself. Revealing her own story for the very first time, she recounts her years spent sleeping rough and her passion for a career that allows her to rescue others as she was never rescued herself.

This book is the result of everything she has learnt about how we respond in our most extreme moments.

'An inspirational woman' Good Housekeeping

From childhood, each of us develops our own personal set of theories and beliefs about the world in which we live. Given the impossibility of knowing about every event that can ever take place, we use cognitive short cuts to try to predict and make sense of the world around us. One of the fundamental pieces of information we use to predict future events, and make sense of past events, is 'frequency' - how often has such an event happened to us, or how often have we observed a particular event? With such information we will make inferences about the likelihood of its future appearance. We will make judgements, assess risk, or even consumer decisions, on the basis of this information. We also form associations between events that frequently occur together, and even (often incorrectly) attribute causality between one event and the other as a result of their simultaneous appearance. How is it though that we process such information? How does our brain deal with information on frequencies? How does such information influence our behaviour, beliefs, and judgements? Important new findings on this topic have come from research within both social and cognitive psychology, though until now, never brought together in a single volume. This is the first book to bring together two disparate literatures on this topic - drawing on research from both cognitive psychology and social psychology. Including contributions from world leaders in the field, this is a timely, and long overdue volume on this topic.

Behavioural studies have shown that while humans may be the best decision makers on the planet, we are not quite as good as we think we are. We are regularly subject to biases, inconsistencies and irrationalities in our decision making. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support, published in 2009, explores perspectives from many different disciplines to show how we can help decision makers to deliberate and make better decisions. It considers both the use of computers and databases to support decisions as well as human aids to building analyses and some fast and frugal tricks to aid more consistent decision making. In its exploration of decision support it draws together results and observations from decision theory, behavioural and psychological studies, artificial intelligence and information systems, philosophy, operational research and organisational studies. This provides a valuable resource for managers with decision-making responsibilities and students from a range of disciplines, including management, engineering and information systems.

Chance inevitably plays a role in law but it is not often that we consciously try to import an element of randomness into a legal process. Random Justice: On Lotteries and Legal Decision-Making explores the potential for the use of lotteries in social, and particularly legal, decision-making contexts. Utilizing a variety of disciplines and materials, Neil Duxbury considers in detail the history, advantages, and drawbacks of deciding issues of social significance by lot and argues that the value of the lottery as a legal decision-making device has generally been underestimated. The very fact that there exists widespread resistance to the use of lotteries for legal decision-making purposes betrays a commonly held belief that legal processes are generally more important than are legal outcomes. Where, owing to the existence of indeterminacy, the process of reasoning is likely to be excessively protracted and the reasons provided strongly contestable, the most cost-efficient and impartial decision-making strategy may well be recourse to lot. Aversion to this strategy, while generally understandable, is not necessarily rational. Yet in law, as Professor Duxbury demonstrates, reason is generally valued more highly than is rationality. The lottery is often conceived to be a decision-making device that operates in isolation. Yet lotteries can frequently and profitably be incorporated into other decision-frameworks. The book concludes by controversially considering how lotteries might be so incorporated and also advances the thesis that it may sometimes be sensible to require that adjudication takes place in the shadow of a lottery.

Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity provides the first comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

Thorough and easy-to-read text which provides an introduction to contemporary approaches in musculoskeletal physical therapy. Features key points boxes and summaries to guide the reader and ensure retention. With over 250 illustrations, the text provides authoritative coverage of neurodynamics, gait analysis, physiology of motor control and much more.

Behavioural studies have shown that while humans may be the best decision makers on the planet, we are not quite as good as we think we are. We are regularly subject to biases, inconsistencies and irrationalities in our decision making. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support, published in 2009, explores perspectives from many different disciplines to show how we can help decision makers to deliberate and make better decisions. It considers both the use of computers and databases to support decisions as well as human aids to building analyses and some fast and frugal tricks to aid more consistent decision making. In its exploration of decision support it draws together results and observations from decision theory, behavioural and psychological studies, artificial intelligence and information systems, philosophy, operational research and organisational studies. This provides a valuable resource for managers with decision-making responsibilities and students from a range of disciplines, including management, engineering and information systems.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation, GDN 2021, which was planned to be held in Toronto, ON, Canada, during June 6-10, 2021. The conference was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The field of Group Decision and Negotiation focuses on decision processes with at least two participants and a common goal but conflicting individual goals. Research areas of Group Decision and Negotiation include electronic negotiations, experiments, the role of emotions in group decision and negotiations, preference elicitation and decision support for group decisions and negotiations, and conflict resolution principles. The 12 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 74 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: pandemic responses; preference modeling for group decision and negotiation; conflict resolution; and collaborative decision making processes.

Winning takes many forms. For fans of Matthew Syed, this is a great sports book about leadership, judgement and decision-making - rooted in the theory that helped Ed Smith lead England cricket to sustained success. And to help us all win more. 'An absolutely fascinating book' THE GAME, The Times football pod How do you spot the opportunities that others miss? How do you turn a team's performance around? How do you make good decisions amid a tidal wave of information? And how can you improve? As chief selector for the England cricket team, Ed Smith pioneered new methods for building successful teams and watched his decisions tested in real time on the pitch. During his three-year tenure, England averaged 7 wins in every 10 completed matches, better than they have performed before or since. Making Decisions reveals Smith's unique approach to finding success in a fast-changing and increasingly data-reliant world. The best decisions, Smith argues, rely on a combination of differing kinds of intelligence: from algorithms to intuition. This is a truth that the most successful people know: data cannot account for everything, it must be harnessed with human insight. Whatever the power of data, humans aren't finished yet. Sharing for the first time the tools he introduced as England selector, Smith's book captures the immediacy of life at the sharp end, while also exploring frameworks from the top levels of sports, business and the arts. Decision-making is revealed as a creative enterprise, not a reductive system. Making Decisions offers an invaluable guide for those who want a better framework for developing, explaining and implementing new ideas.

'An endlessly fascinating tour of the many different factors influencing our decision-making and reasoning' David Robson, author of The Intelligence Trap 'An eye-opening and engaging richness of information that gives us a detailed insight into the strengths and weaknesses of human behaviour' Melissa Hogenboom, author of The Motherhood Complex Do emotions really cloud your thinking? Are habits holding you back? Is AI manipulating your mind? Does IQ help you think better? Every one of our thoughts, actions, moods and decisions is shaped by a whole array of factors, most of which we don't pay any attention to. From culture, time and language to genetics, technology and the microorganisms living inside us - even our own unconscious routines and habits - it's clear that we aren't always in the driving seat. The good news is that by better understanding the external and internal forces at work, we can minimise their impact on our lives. Drawing on rigorous interdisciplinary research, leading science journalists Miriam Frankel and Matt Warren bring us extraordinary stories and studies that open our eyes to the inner workings of the mind, challenge our thought processes and improve our decision-making. Most of all, Are You Thinking Clearly? is a rallying cry to know yourself, think broadly, think boldly - and to listen. 'Essential reading for anyone who wants to understand why their beliefs, mistakes, emotions and intuitions are the way they are' Richard Gray, BBC Future

"Pullman offers his readers essential insights into how humans reason and make decisions. Both concise and far-reaching, his work teaches us how to challenge intuitive logic and examine the processes for deliberative reasoning. This text will prove foundational for students in their intellectual journey toward the development of real skills in critical thinking. By pointing to simple yet profound examples, Pullman's text is both readable and provocative as it challenges us to consider the very mechanisms by which we understand our own cognitive biases." --Bradley A. Hammer, Department of English and Comparative Literature, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

In mainstream economics, and particularly in New Keynesian macroeconomics, the booms and busts that characterize capitalism arise because of large external shocks. The combination of these shocks and the slow adjustments of wages and prices by rational agents leads to cyclical movements. In this book, Paul De Grauwe argues for a different macroeconomics model--one that works with an internal explanation of the business cycle and factors in agents' limited cognitive abilities. By creating a behavioral model that is not dependent on the prevailing concept of rationality, De Grauwe is better able to explain the fluctuations of economic activity that are an endemic feature of market economies. This new approach illustrates a richer macroeconomic dynamic that provides for a better understanding of fluctuations in output and inflation.

De Grauwe shows that the behavioral model is driven by self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism, or animal spirits. Booms and busts in economic activity are therefore natural outcomes of a behavioral model. The author uses this to analyze central issues in monetary policies, such as output stabilization, before extending his investigation into asset markets and more sophisticated forecasting rules. He also examines how well the theoretical predictions of the behavioral model perform when confronted with empirical data. Develops a behavioral macroeconomic model that assumes agents have limited cognitive abilities Shows how booms and busts are characteristic of market economies Explores the larger role of the central bank in the behavioral model Examines the destabilizing aspects of asset markets

Decision analysis integrates insights and techniques from economics, probability, and cognitive psychology for the purpose of making good decisions. This book presents practical advice for decision making in all these contexts. It offers step-by-step procedures for defining the problem, identifying objectives, identifying alternatives, forecasting each alternative's potential, comparing forecasts, and choosing the most favorable alternative. A student-friendly guide, it incorporates DPL decision support software and practical, balanced coverage.