Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in complex, globally relevant situations. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies. Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision to face modern challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of systemic planning. The outcome is a coherent and flexible approach named systemic planning. The inclusion of both the theoretical and practical aspects of systemic planning makes this book a key resource for researchers and students in the field of planning and decision analysis as well as practitioners dealing with strategic analysis and decision making. More broadly, Complex Strategic Choices acts as guide for professionals and students involved in complex planning tasks across several fields such as business and engineering.

This book presents a contemporary view of the role of information quality in information fusion and decision making, and provides a formal foundation and the implementation strategies required for dealing with insufficient information quality in building fusion systems for decision making. Information fusion is the process of gathering, processing, and combining large amounts of information from multiple and diverse sources, including physical sensors to human intelligence reports and social media. That data and information may be unreliable, of low fidelity, insufficient resolution, contradictory, fake and/or redundant. Sources may provide unverified reports obtained from other sources resulting in correlations and biases. The success of the fusion processing depends on how well knowledge produced by the processing chain represents reality, which in turn depends on how adequate data are, how good and adequate are the models used, and how accurate, appropriate or applicable prior and contextual knowledge is. By offering contributions by leading experts, this book provides an unparalleled understanding of the problem of information quality in information fusion and decision-making for researchers and professionals in the field.

The purpose of Multiple Criteria Analysis in Strategic Siting Problems is to demonstrate how multiple criteria can be used in analysis of facility location problems. The book begins with an overview, explains the internationally most popular multiple objective analysis methods, and demonstrates their applications on real problems. Siting problems reviewed include nuclear waste disposal in the U.S., solid waste management in Finland, pipeline location in India, and pipeline location in Russia. Methods covered are multiattribute utility analysis, analytic hierarchy process, the ELECTRE outranking method, and verbal decision analysis. The book concludes with a comparative review of methods. The book uses the multi-attribute, multi-party framework of Kunreuther to present the decision context, to include parties with interests in the decisions, as well as the sequence of project events. This perspective is valuable in identifying the qualitative backgrounds of siting problems that need to be considered. The book demonstrates the importance of multiple criteria in hazardous facility site selection. It also shows how each of the four methodologies covered operate, both in terms of demonstration problems worked with numbers, and how these methods have been applied in the real applications. The real applications were taken from refereed journal documentation, with the exception of Russian pipeline analysis decisions in which Professor Larichev participated. The book is recommended for those interested in decision-making involving problems with social import. This includes environmental aspects, as well as international aspects of decision making.

Have you ever wondered why you make bad decisions? Or why it's so hard to make a decision in the first place? Through pioneering research into behavioural science, decisions expert Dr Sheheryar Banuri has designed an entirely novel decision-making framework which can be adopted into everyday life to help us better our decision-making skills by understanding and streamlining the process. The result? Simple, effective and efficient techniques to combat indecision. The Decisive Mind will draw on examples from evolutionary psychology, examine our ability (or inability) to prioritise and highlight the scenarios that force decision-making errors, and help us understand our own minds. By unpicking a lifetime's worth of misconceptions about our own decision-making patterns and habits, this book will guide you on your first steps towards optimising your own brain space.

Straight Choices provides a fascinating introduction to the psychology of decision making, enhanced by discussion of relevant examples of decision problems faced in everyday life. Thoroughly revised and updated throughout, this edition provides an integrative account of the psychology of decision-making and shows how psychological research can help us understand our uncertain world. The book emphasizes the relationship between learning and decision-making, arguing that the best way to understand how and why decisions are made is in the context of the learning and knowledge acquisition which precedes them, and the feedback which follows. The mechanisms of learning and the structure of environments in which decisions are made are carefully examined to explore their impact on our choices. The authors then consider whether we are all constrained to fall prey to cognitive biases, or whether, with sufficient exposure, we can find optimal decision strategies and improve our decision making. This edition highlights advances made in judgment and decision making research, with additional coverage of behavioral insights, nudging, artificial intelligence, and explanation-based decision making. Written in a non-technical manner, this book is an essential read for all students and researchers in cognitive psychology, behavioral economics, and the decision sciences, as well as anyone interested in the nature of decision making.

The concept of fuzziness, inspired by Zadeh (1965), brings us fruitful results when it is applied to problems in decision making. Recently, problems in fuzzy decision making are getting more complex, and one of the most complex fac tors is dynamics in systems. Dynamical approach to fuzzy decision making has been proposed by Bellman and Zadeh's celebrated paper "Decision-making in a fuzzy environment" (1970). The idea has developed into fuzzy mathemati cal programming and has been applied in many fields including management science, operations research, control theory, engineering, systems analysis, computer science, mathematical finance etc. Dynamic programming, advo cated in Bellmans book "Dynamic programming" (1957), is one of the most powerful tools to deal with dynamics in systems, and Bellman and Zadeh has proposed the optimality principle in fuzzy decision making by (1970) introducing fuzzy dynamic programming. Fuzzy dynamic programming and fuzzy mathematical programming has been making remakable progress after they were given life by Bellman and Zadeh's paper (1970). In this volume, various kinds of dynamics, not only time but also structure of systems, are considered. This volume contains ten reviewed papers, which deal with dynamics in theory and applications and whose topics are poten tially related to dynamics and are expected to develope dynamical study in near future. first, fuzzy dynamic programming is reviewed from a viewpoint of its origin and consider its developement in theory and applications."

Decision making is the oil that greases the wheel of social movement organizing. Done poorly, it derails organizations and coalitions; done well, it advances the movement and may model those changes movements seek to effect in society. Despite its importance, movement decision making has been little studied. Section One makes a singular contribution to the study of social movement decision making through seven focused case studies, followed by a critical commentary. The case studies on decision making cut across a wide breadth of social movement contexts, including Peace Brigades International teams, a feminist bakery collective, Earth First, the NGO Forum on Women, Friends of the Earth, the Tlapanec indigenous movement in Mexico, an on-line strategic voting campaign, and Korean labor movements. The section concludes with Jane Mansbridge's synthesis and critical commentary on the papers, wherein she continues to make her own substantive contributions to the literature on consensus decision making. The three papers in Section Two focus on Northern Ireland, where frustration with inter-community conflict resolution spawned a movement promoting intra-community or 'single tradition' programs. Two chapters provide invaluable comparative studies of the benefits and shortcomings of these counter-movements, while the third paper applies constructive conflict and nonviolent action theories to recent developments in the annual parades disputes. The volume closes with two papers on Native American issues. The first examines an initiative to teach conflict history and build conflict analysis and resolution skills among the Seneca Nation. The final case study of two Native American women's organizations demonstrates how socially constructed identities are critical to movement framing processes and collective actions. With this volume, RSMCC continues its long-standing tradition of publishing cutting edge studies in social movements, conflict resolution, and social change.

The Cold War produced a matrix of Canadian/US extra-governmental military and economic relationships which significantly shaped Canadian political decision-making as it related to the defence of the continent under the auspices of the North American Air/Aerospace Defence Agreement (NORAD). In the post-cold War era, these relationships continue to effectively support a traditional security agenda for the Canadian government. The rewritten NORAD Agreement, signed in March 1996, is the vehicle for Canadian participation in US missile defence programs worldwide. Paying particular attention to the decisions to adopt a nuclear weapons role for Canada's continental air defence forces, to test the US air-lunched cruise missile in the Canadian North, and to become increasingly involved in active missile and space-based defence programs, the author examines: * the Cold War construction of Canadian/US military and economic relationships * the effects of these relationships on political decision-making * the public discourse as a site of alternative understandings of Canada's role in the Cold War. Ann Denholm Crosby provides a challenging analysis of Canadian defence decision-making in both its Cold war and post-Cold War contexts.

The Art and Science of Making Up Your Mind presents basic decision-making principles and tools to help the reader respond efficiently and wisely to everyday dilemmas. Although most decisions are made informally (whether intuitively without deliberate thought, or based on careful reflection), over the centuries people have tried to develop systematic, scientific and structured ways in which to make decisions. Using qualitative counterparts to quantitative models, Rex Brown takes the reader through the basics, like 'what is a decision' and then considers a wide variety of real-life decisions, explaining how the best judgments can be made using logical principles. Combining multiple evaluations of the same judgment ("hybrid judgment") and exploring innovative analytical concepts (such as "ideal judgment"), this book explores and analyzes the skills needed to master the basics of non-mathematical decision making, and what should be done, using real world illustrations of decision methods. The book is an ideal companion for students of Thinking, Reasoning and Decision-Making, and also for anyone wanting to understand how to make better judgments in their everyday lives.

In our high technology society, there is a growing demand for a better understanding of decision making in high risk situations in order to improve selection, training and operational performance. Decision Making Under Stress presents a state-of-the-art review of psychological theory, in research and practice, on decision making in high pressure and emergency situations. It focuses on the experienced decision makers who deal with such risks, principally on flight decks, at civil emergencies, in industrial settings and military environments. The 29 chapters cover a wide range of perspectives and applications from aviation, military, industry and the emergency services. The authors, all international invited experts in their field, are based in research centers and universities from Europe, North America and Australia. Their common interest is in the theories and methods of a new research domain called NDM (naturalistic decision making). This volume comprises the edited contributions to the Third International NDM conference, sponsored by the US Army Research Institute and the US Naval Air Warfare Center, which was held in Aberdeen, Scotland in September 1996. The NDM researchers are interested in decision making in situations characterised by high risk, time pressure, uncertain goals, ambiguous information and teamwork. The extent to which the NDM approach can explain and predict human performance in such settings is a central theme, discussed with many practical examples and applications. This book is essential reading for applied psychologists, pilots, emergency commanders, military officers, high hazard managers, safety and emergency response professionals.

Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.

The mental well-being of children and adults is shockingly poor. Marc Brackett, author of Permission to Feel, knows why. And he knows what we can do.

Marc Brackett is a professor in Yale University’s Child Study Center and founding director of the Yale Center for Emotional Intelligence. In his 25 years as an emotion scientist, he has developed a remarkably effective plan to improve the lives of children and adults – a blueprint for understanding our emotions and using them wisely so that they help, rather than hinder, our success and well-being. The core of his approach is a legacy from his childhood, from an astute uncle who gave him permission to feel. He was the first adult who managed to see Marc, listen to him, and recognize the suffering, bullying, and abuse he’d endured. And that was the beginning of Marc’s awareness that what he was going through was temporary. He wasn’t alone, he wasn’t stuck on a timeline, and he wasn’t “wrong” to feel scared, isolated, and angry. Now, best of all, he could do something about it.

In the decades since, Marc has led large research teams and raised tens of millions of dollars to investigate the roots of emotional well-being. His prescription for healthy children (and their parents, teachers, and schools) is a system called RULER, a high-impact and fast-effect approach to understanding and mastering emotions that has already transformed the thousands of schools that have adopted it. RULER has been proven to reduce stress and burnout, improve school climate, and enhance academic achievement. This book is the culmination of Marc’s development of RULER and his way to share the strategies and skills with readers around the world. It is tested, and it works.

This book combines rigor, science, passion and inspiration in equal parts. Too many children and adults are suffering; they are ashamed of their feelings and emotionally unskilled, but they don’t have to be. Marc Brackett’s life mission is to reverse this course, and this book can show you how.

Crisis events are increasingly common. Their impacts are greater--and they are more widely reported in the media--than ever before. They often symbolize tragedy and loss, but they are also the precipitating factors in radical, rapid, and frequently positive social change. Understanding the complex dynamics of these powerful events is imperative for both researchers and managers. Taking a broad view of organizational crisis, the authors synthesize a rich and diverse body of theory, research, and practice and apply it to every kind of crisis imaginable, from oil spills to nuclear disasters, airplane crashes, shuttle explosions, and corporate implosions such as Enron. The "organization" can be anything from a company to a federal bureaucracy or society. Organizational crisis is presented as a natural stage in organizational evolution, creating not only stress and threats but also opportunities for growth and development. Communication is viewed as the pivotal process in the creation and maintenance of organization, and its role is examined here at every stage, from incubation to avoidance, crisis management, and recovery. Researchers, crisis managers, and communications managers will find a wealth of applied theoretical orientations, including chaos theory, sensemaking, organizational learning theory, and more.

In Decision Modelling And Information Systems: The Information Value Chain the authors explain the interrelationships between the decision support, decision modelling, and information systems. The authors borrow from Porter's value chain concept originally set out in the organizational context and apply it to a corporate IS context. Thus data, information and knowledge is seen to be the progressive value added process leading to business intelligence. The book captures key issues that are of central interest to decision support researchers, professionals, and students. The book sets out an interdisciplinary and contemporary view of Decision Support System (DSS).

The first two parts of the book focus on the interdisciplinary decision support framework, in which mathematical programming (optimization) is taken as the inference engine. The role of business analytics and its relationship with recent developments in organisational theory, decision modelling, information systems and information technology are considered in depth. Part three of the book includes a carefully chosen selection of invited contributions from internationally-known researchers. These contributions are thought-provoking and cover key decision modelling and information systems issues.

These chapters include: Arthur Geoffrion on restoring transparency to computational solutions, Bill Inmon on the concept of the corporate information factory, Louis Ma and Efraim Turban on strategic information systems, and Erik Thomsen on information impact and its relationship to the value of information technology.

The final part of the book covers contemporary developments in the related area of business intelligence considered within an organizational context. The topics cover computing delivered across the web, management decision-making, and socio-economic challenges that lie ahead. It is now well accepted that globalisation and the impact of digital economy are profound; and the role of e-business and the delivery of decision models (business analytics) across the net lead to a challenging business environment. In this dynamic setting, decision support is one of the few interdisciplinary frameworks that can be rapidly adopted and deployed to so that businesses can survive and prosper by meeting these new challenges.

This book provides a thorough development of the powerful methods of heavy traffic analysis and approximations with applications to a wide variety of stochastic (e.g. queueing and communication) networks, for both controlled and uncontrolled systems. The approximating models are reflected stochastic differential equations. The analytical and numerical methods yield considerable simplifications and insights and good approximations to both path properties and optimal controls under broad conditions on the data and structure. The general theory is developed, with possibly state dependent parameters, and specialized to many different cases of practical interest. Control problems in telecommunications and applications to scheduling, admissions control, polling, and elsewhere are treated. The necessary probability background is reviewed, including a detailed survey of reflected stochastic differential equations, weak convergence theory, methods for characterizing limit processes, and ergodic problems.