Since 1925, import substitution programs have diverted South
Africa's mineral revenues away from efficient investments and into
the creation of an uncompetitive manufacturing sector. Protection
has recently been augmented by a General Export Incentive Scheme
that was designed to increase manufacturing exports. A multisector
general equilibrium analysis shows the export scheme is highly
complex with unusual and undesirable structural effects, seeming
little more than a continuation of social engineering of the past.
This work provides a definitive analysis of past and present South
African trade policy, using a methodology of interest to other
trade and development researchers operating in similarly spare
informational environments.
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