There was an expectation that the end of the Cold War would
herald a new era of peace and stability in which the importance of
nuclear weapons was marginalized. Instead, we have been left with a
fractious, inter-dependent international community rife with ethnic
and religious tension and unbound by super-power competition. The
challenges of climate change, demographic shifts and resource
competition have further altered the security environment. As if
this were not enough, nuclear proliferation is once again at the
top of the international agenda.
In the last decade the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has
been challenged from within by Iraq, Iran and Libya while India s,
Pakistan s and North Korea's nuclear weapon capabilities are
threatening the non-proliferation norm from without. The new
proliferators are predominantly, but not exclusively, aggressive,
unstable and authoritarian regimes, considered by many in the
international community to be outside the constraints of
international normative behaviour. Some have even been labelled
outlaw, or rogue states. Although inter-continental nuclear war is
not presently considered a danger, the increased number of nuclear
weapons states combined with the nature of those states and the
strategic environment in which they exist makes the possibility of
a lesser nuclear exchange potentially much greater. In parallel,
the 9/11 atrocities raised fears of the prospect of apocalyptic
terrorists acquiring nuclear weapons. Indications that the NPT is
failing to rise to the challenge have resulted in policy decisions
that have arguably reversed both the disarmament and
non-proliferation norms.
This volume delves deep into the changing global nuclear
landscape. The chapters document the increasing complexity of the
global nuclear proliferation dynamic and the inability of the
international community to come to terms with a rapidly changing
strategic milieu. The future, in all likelihood, will be very
different from the past, and the chapters in this volume develop a
framework that may helps gain a better understanding of the forces
that will shape the nuclear proliferation debate in the years to
come.
Part I examines the major thematic issues underlying the
contemporary discourse on nuclear proliferation.
Part II gives an overview of the evolving nuclear policies of
the five established nuclear powers: the USA, Russia, the United
Kingdom, France and the People's Republic of China.
Part III looks at the three de facto nuclear states: India,
Pakistan and Israel.
Part IV examines two problem states' in the proliferation matrix
today: Iran and North Korea.
Part V sheds light on an important issue often ignored during
discussions of nuclear proliferation cases where states have made a
deliberate policy choice of either renouncing their nuclear weapons
programme, or have decided to remain a threshold state. The cases
of South Africa, Egypt and Japan will be the focus of this
section.
The final section, Part VI, will examine the present state of
the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, which most observers
agree is currently facing a crisis of credibility. The three
pillars of this regime the NPT, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
and the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty will be analyzed.
General
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