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The Arab Spring - Pathways of Repression and Reform (Paperback)
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The Arab Spring - Pathways of Repression and Reform (Paperback)
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Several years after the Arab Spring began, democracy remains
elusive in the Middle East. The Arab Spring that resides in the
popular imagination is one in which a wave of mass mobilization
swept the broader Middle East, toppled dictators, and cleared the
way for democracy. The reality is that few Arab countries have
experienced anything of the sort. While Tunisia made progress
towards some type of constitutionally entrenched participatory
rule, the other countries that overthrew their rulersEgypt, Yemen,
and Libyaremain mired in authoritarianism and instability.
Elsewhere in the Arab world uprisings were suppressed, subsided or
never materialized. The Arab Springs modest harvest cries out for
explanation. Why did regime change take place in only four Arab
countries and why has democratic change proved so elusive in the
countries that made attempts? This book attempts to answer those
questions. First, by accounting for the full range of variance:
from the absence or failure of uprisings in such places as Algeria
and Saudi Arabia at one end to Tunisias rocky but hopeful
transition at the other. Second, by examining the deep historical
and structure variables that determined the balance of power
between incumbents and opposition. Brownlee, Masoud, and Reynolds
find that the success of domestic uprisings depended on the absence
of a hereditary executive and a dearth of oil rents. Structural
factors also cast a shadow over the transition process. Even when
opposition forces toppled dictators, prior levels of socioeconomic
development and state strength shaped whether nascent democracy,
resurgent authoritarianism, or unbridled civil war would follow.
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