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Books > Social sciences > Psychology > Cognition & cognitive psychology
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Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2018)
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Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2018)
Series: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, 99
Expected to ship within 12 - 19 working days
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This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions
rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making
behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process
information. It also shows with several examples that optimization
under granularity restriction leads to observed human
decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by
Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of
seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the
probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human
abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with
the exact values of relevant quantities, but with "granules" that
contain these values. We show that optimization under such
granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular,
for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence
of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be
recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to
researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to
practitioners who design and employ systems involving human
decision-making -so that they can better utilize our ability to
make decisions under uncertainty.
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