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Bernoulli 1713 Bayes 1763 Laplace 1813 - Anniversary Volume (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1965)
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Bernoulli 1713 Bayes 1763 Laplace 1813 - Anniversary Volume (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1965)
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The present volume represents the Proceedings of an International
Research Seminar organized in 1963 by the Statistical Laboratory,
Uni- versity of California, Berkeley, on the occasion of a
remarkable triple anniversary: the 250th anniversary of JACOB
BERNOULLI'S "Ars Cony'ectandi", the 200th anniversary of THOMAS
BAYES' "Essay towards solving a problem in doctrine of chance", and
the 150th anniversary of the PIERRE-SnlO:-l" DE LAPLACE'S "Essai
philosophique sur les probabilites". Financial assistance of the
National Science Foundation, without which the Seminar could not
have been held, is gratefully acknowledged. The pUblication of Ars
Cony'ectandi, in 1713, was a milestone in the history of
probability theory. Here, for the first time, appeared a careful
description of the now well-known combinatorial methods which give
solutions of many problems on simple games of chance. Also, Ars
Conjectandi contains the Bernoulli numbers, theorems relating to
the duration of games, and to the ruin of gamblers and, above all,
the state- ment and proof of the famous Bernoulli weak law of large
numbers. Even though the original Latin edition of Ars Conjectandi
was followed by several in modern languages, currently the book is
not easily accessible. Apparently the last re-publication, in
German, occurred in 1899, in two issues, No. 107 and No. 108, of
the series "Ostwald's Klassi- ker der exakten Wissenschaften",
Wilhelm Engelman, Leipzig. The two books are difficult to locate.
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