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The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited - Anatomy of a Controversy (Hardcover)
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The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited - Anatomy of a Controversy (Hardcover)
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The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited: Anatomy of a Controversy
explores both the contents and reaction to the U.S. intelligence
community's (IC) National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that Iran had
suspended its clandestine program to develop nuclear weapons. The
volume offers insights into the art of intelligence analysis and
the issues encountered when estimates run counter to policy or
partisan preferences. In November 2007, the U.S. National
Intelligence Council issued an NIE entitled Iran's Nuclear
Intentions and Capabilities that contained a surprising finding.
Analysts concluded that Iran had probably suspended its clandestine
effort to develop a nuclear weapon. This assessment created a
political firestorm, despite the fact that analysts went to great
lengths to assess the accuracy of their sources and to offer
nuanced judgments about the complex issues surrounding Iran's
civilian and military nuclear programs. In this edited volume,
former intelligence professionals and leading intelligence scholars
describe and assess the factors that shaped this NIE and the course
of events that sparked an international controversy. These chapters
make a valuable contribution to the understanding of the state of
the art when it comes to intelligence analysis and the challenges
that emerge when intelligence estimates address significant foreign
and defence policy issues and on-going political debates. One of
the chapters in this volume was originally published in the book
titled, Routledge Companion to Intelligence Studies, edited by
Robert Dover, Michael Goodman, Claudia Hillebrand. Other chapters
were originally published in the journals Intelligence and National
Security and Comparative Strategy.
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