The future of nuclear weapons and nuclear strategy in the 21st
century is not entirely predictable from the Cold War past. Nor is
it easy to foresee on the basis of what has happened since the
Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Cimbala contends that nuclear
weapons and the psychology of nuclear deterrence will remain
important after 2000, but the character of that importance will
change. No longer will nuclear weapons be the dominators of
military technology. Instead, advanced technology conventional
weapons, based on information and electronics, will supplant
nuclear weapons as the instruments of military supremacy in the
21st century.
What, Cimbala asks, can be expected of nuclear weapons in the
21st century, given what we have learned from previous experience
in the Cold War and in the 1990s? Cimbala expects that nuclear
weapons will spread among currently non-nuclear states, and states
with regional grievances or hegemonic aspirations will seek to
deploy small nuclear forces as deterrents against neighbors or
against outside intervention by the United States in regional
conflicts. Regional rogue states may also obtain nuclear weapons.
Nonetheless, as Cimbala explains, the international balance of
power is unlikely to change. As he makes clear, power will be less
dependent on deployed military platforms and more dependent on
information warfare. A thoughtful and provocative analysis that
will be of particular interest to policy makers, scholars, and
other researchers involved with arms control, security studies, and
international relations.
General
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