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Sediments, ice, corals, and trees are just some of the natural
storehouses of information that help tell the complicated history
of Earth?s climate. Paleoclimate researchers use these ?proxies,?
in combination with numerical models, to gain understanding of the
magnitudes, rates, and drivers of past climate variability with the
goal of informing understanding of current and future change in
Earth?s climate system. The Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change
(P2C2) program of the National Science Foundation (NSF) has
advanced paleoclimate research through proxy development,
data-model comparisons, and synthesis work, and has facilitated
interdisciplinary collaboration that has contributed to the growth
of the field. This new publication highlights discussions at a June
2021 workshop that focused on identifying potential future
paleoclimate research directions to further advance understanding
of past climate and better inform the public and decision makers
about the expected future. Table of Contents Front Matter Overview
Introduction Understanding Past Climate Forcings and Sensitivity
Glacial, Ocean, and Land Processes and Feedbacks Resolving Regional
Climate Change: Advancing and Synthesizing Knowledge How the
Paleoclimate Community Can Better Engage on BAJEDI Issues Closing
Thoughts References Appendix A: Statement of Task Appendix B:
Biographical Sketches of Planning Committee Members Appendix C:
Workshop Agenda
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A Review of the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (Paperback)
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on the Evaluation of the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
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R1,919
Discovery Miles 19 190
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The United States' tradition of conserving fish, wildlife,
habitats, and cultural resources dates to the mid-19th century.
States have long sought to manage fish and wildlife species within
their borders, whereas many early federal conservation efforts
focused on setting aside specific places as parks, sanctuaries, or
reserves. With advances in landscape ecology over the past
quarter-century, conservation planners, scientists, and
practitioners began to stress the importance of conservation
efforts at the scale of landscapes and seascapes. These larger
areas were thought to harbor relatively large numbers of species
that are likely to maintain population viability and sustain
ecological processes and natural disturbance regimes - often
considered critical factors in conserving biodiversity. By focusing
conservation efforts at the level of whole ecosystems and
landscape, practitioners can better attempt to conserve the vast
majority of species in a particular ecosystem. Successfully
addressing the large-scale, interlinked problems associated with
landscape degradation will necessitate a planning process that
bridges different scientific disciplines and across sectors, as
well as an understanding of complexity, uncertainty, and the local
context of conservation work. The landscape approach aims to
develop shared conservation priorities across jurisdictions and
across many resources to create a single, collaborative
conservation effort that can meet stakeholder needs. Conservation
of habitats, species, ecosystem services, and cultural resources in
the face of multiple stressors requires governance structures that
can bridge the geographic and jurisdictional boundaries of the
complex socio-ecological systems in which landscape-level
conservation occurs. The Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC)
Network was established to complement and add value to the many
ongoing state, tribal, federal, and nongovernmental efforts to
address the challenge of conserving species, habitats, ecosystem
services, and cultural resources in the face of large-scale and
long-term threats, including climate change. A Review of the
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives evaluates the purpose, goals,
and scientific merits of the LCC program within the context of
similar programs, and whether the program has resulted in
measurable improvements in the health of fish, wildlife, and their
habitats. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2
Scientific and Conservation Merits of Landscape-Scale Conservation
and the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives 3 Evaluating the
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Network Strategic Plan 4 An
Examination of the Evaluation Process for the Landscape
Conservation Cooperatives 5 The Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
and Other Similar Federal Programs 6 An Assessment of the Early
Accomplishments and Likely Long-Term Outcomes and Impacts of the
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Network References Appendix A:
Greater Sage-Grouse: A Collaborative Conservation Effort Appendix
B: Mississippi River Basin and Gulf Hypoxia: Collaborations Across
Multiple LCCs Appendix C: Guidance for Landscape Conservation
Planning and Designs Appendix D: Description of Other Federal
Programs Appendix E: Secretarial Order No. 3289 Appendix F:
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives 2014 Network Strategic Plan
Appendix G: Goals of Individual LCCs Compared to Goals of the LCC
Network Strategic Plan Appendix H: Committee and Staff Biographies
Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million
years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not
seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking
action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be
warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change.
But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable
uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate.
Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal
infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the
changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point"
to change so fast that the time between when a problem is
recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where
orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate
Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and
its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments
of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also
abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect
the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems,
often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The
primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key
characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than
expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather
than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change
summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt
changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are
already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are
unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and
nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the
development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would
allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes
before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key
vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and
avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in
abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and
facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between
mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn
about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to
willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more
costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation.
Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is
here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to
better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable
surprises. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2
Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern 3 Areas of Concern for Humans
from Abrupt Changes 4 The Way Forward References Appendix A:
Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
More intense heat waves, extended wildfire seasons and other
escalating impacts of climate change have made it more important
than ever to fill knowledge gaps that improve society's
understanding, assessment, and response to global change. The US
Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) - a collection of 13
Federal entities charged by law to help the United States and the
world fill those knowledge gaps - laid out proposed mechanisms and
priorities for global change research over the next decade in its
draft Decadal Strategic Plan 2022-2031. The draft plan recognizes
that priority knowledge gaps have shifted over the past decade as
demand has grown for more useful and more inclusive data to inform
decision-making, and as the focus on resilience and sustainability
has increased. As part of its work in advising the USGCRP since
2011, the National Academies reviewed USGCRP's draft plan to
determine how it might be enhanced. Advances in the draft plan
include an increased emphasis on social sciences, community
engagement with marginalized groups, and promotion of diversity,
equity, inclusion, and justice in the production of science.
Strengthening the interconnections between the plan's core pillars
and expanding opportunities for coordination among federal agencies
tasked with responding to global climate change would improve the
plan. The draft plan could more strongly convey a sense of urgency
throughout the plan and would benefit from additional examples of
key research outputs that could advance policy and decision making
on global change challenges. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary
1 Introduction and Background 2 Cross-Cutting Themes and Issues to
Strengthen the Draft Decadal Strategic Plan for 2022-2031 3 The
Four Pillars References Appendix A: Statement of Task for the
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Appendix B: USGCRP Transmission Memo Appendix C: Committee Member
Biographical Sketches Appendix D: Line-by-Line Comments
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Low-Altitude Wind Shear and Its Hazard to Aviation (Paperback)
National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, …
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The Earth system - the atmospheric, hydrologic, geologic, and
biologic cycles that circulate energy, water, nutrients, and other
trace substances - is a large, complex, multiscale system in space
and time that involves human and natural system interactions.
Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) offer
opportunities to understand and predict this system. Researchers
are actively exploring ways to use ML/AI approaches to advance
scientific discovery, speed computation, and link scientific
communities. To address the challenges and opportunities around
using ML/AI to advance Earth system science, the National Academies
convened a workshop in February 2022 that brought together Earth
system experts, ML/AI researchers, social and behavioral
scientists, ethicists, and decision makers to discuss approaches to
improving understanding, analysis, modeling, and prediction.
Participants also explored educational pathways, responsible and
ethical use of these technologies, and opportunities to foster
partnerships and knowledge exchange. This publication summarizes
the workshop discussions and themes that emerged throughout the
meeting. Table of Contents Front Matter Overview Introduction
Emerging Approaches for Using, Interpreting, and Integrating ML/AI
for Earth System Science Challenges and Risks of Using ML/AI for
Earth System Science Identifying Future Opportunities to Accelerate
Progress Closing Thoughts References Appendix A: Statement of Task
Appendix B: Planning Committee Biographies Appendix C: Workshop
Agenda
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have
ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely
determine the evolution of Earth's climate. Because carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth
and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could
become very severe. Emissions reductions decisions made today
matter in determining impacts experienced not just over the next
few decades, but in the coming centuries and millennia. According
to Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and
Impacts Over Decades to Millennia, important policy decisions can
be informed by recent advances in climate science that quantify the
relationships between increases in carbon dioxide and global
warming, related climate changes, and resulting impacts, such as
changes in streamflow, wildfires, crop productivity, extreme hot
summers, and sea level rise. One way to inform these choices is to
consider the projected climate changes and impacts that would occur
if greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were stabilized at a
particular concentration level. The book quantifies the outcomes of
different stabilization targets for greenhouse gas concentrations
using analyses and information drawn from the scientific
literature. Although it does not recommend or justify any
particular stabilization target, it does provide important
scientific insights about the relationships among emissions,
greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures, and impacts. Climate
Stabilization Targets emphasizes the importance of 21st century
choices regarding long-term climate stabilization. It is a useful
resource for scientists, educators and policy makers, among others.
Table of Contents Front Matter Section I Synopsis Summary Overview
of Climate Changes and Illustrative Impacts Section II 1
Introduction 2 Emissions, Concentrations, and Related Factors 3
Global Mean Temperature Responses 4 Physical Climate Change in the
21st Century 5 Impacts in the Next Few Decades and Coming Centuries
6 Beyond the Next Few Centuries References Appendix A: Statement of
Task Appendix B: Committee Membership Appendix C: Methods Appendix
D: Acronym List
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Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031 (Paperback)
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Environmental Change and Society, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, …
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The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of
13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and
the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to
human-induced and natural processes of global change. Global Change
Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031 advises the USGCRP
on how best to meet its mandate in light of climate change impacts
happening today and projected into the future. This report
identifies critical climate change risks, research needed to
support decision-making relevant to managing these risks, and
opportunities for the USGCRP's participating agencies and other
partners to advance these research priorities over the next decade.
Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Global
Change Risks to Human Systems 3 Integrated Systems-Based Research 4
Research on Approaches Critical to Managing Climate Risk 5
Crosscutting Research and Data Priorities 6 Next Steps for Shifting
the USGCRP Paradigm References Appendix A: Statement of Task
Appendix B: Committee Member Biographies
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Reflecting Sunlight - Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance (Paperback)
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Policy and Global Affairs, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Committee on Science, Technology, and Law, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, …
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Climate change is creating impacts that are widespread and severe
for individuals, communities, economies, and ecosystems around the
world. While efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to climate
impacts are the first line of defense, researchers are exploring
other options to reduce warming. Solar geoengineering strategies
are designed to cool Earth either by adding small reflective
particles to the upper atmosphere, by increasing reflective cloud
cover in the lower atmosphere, or by thinning high-altitude clouds
that can absorb heat. While such strategies have the potential to
reduce global temperatures, they could also introduce an array of
unknown or negative consequences. This report concludes that a
strategic investment in research is needed to enhance policymakers'
understanding of climate response options. The United States should
develop a transdisciplinary research program, in collaboration with
other nations, to advance understanding of solar geoengineering's
technical feasibility and effectiveness, possible impacts on
society and the environment, and social dimensions such as public
perceptions, political and economic dynamics, and ethical and
equity considerations. The program should operate under robust
research governance that includes such elements as a research code
of conduct, a public registry for research, permitting systems for
outdoor experiments, guidance on intellectual property, and
inclusive public and stakeholder engagement processes. Table of
Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Assessment of the
Current Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance
Landscape 3 The Decision Space: Context and Key Considerations for
Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance 4 A Solar
Geoengineering Research Program: Goals and Approach 5 Solar
Geoengineering Research Governance 6 An Integrated Agenda for Solar
Geoengineering Research References Appendix A: Statement of Task
Appendix B: Speakers from the Committee Meetings & Webinars
Appendix C: Scenarios Developed By the Committee for the "Decision
Maker Needs" Webinars Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of the
Committee Members Appendix E: Acronyms and Abbreviations
The drylands region shared by the United States and Mexico
currently faces multiple sustainability challenges at the
intersection of the human and natural systems. Warming and drying
conditions threaten surface water and groundwater availability,
disrupt land- and marine-based livelihood systems, and challenge
the sustainability of human settlements. These biophysical
challenges are exacerbated by a highly mobile and dynamic
population, volatile economic and policy conditions, increased
exposure to extreme events, and urbanization on marginal,
vulnerable lands. The U.S. National Academies of Sciences,
Engineering, and Medicine collaborated with the Mexican Academy of
Sciences, Academy of Engineering, and the National Academy of
Medicine to plan a 2-day binational workshop, Advancing
Sustainability of U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Drylands. The workshop
goals were to highlight the challenges facing the region, assess
the scientific and technical capacity that each nation can bring to
bear in addressing these challenges, and identify new opportunities
for binational research collaboration and coordinated management
approaches in the advancement of sustainability science and
development. This publication summarizes the presentations and
discussions from the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter 1
Introduction and Background 2 Understanding the Transboundary
Drylands Region 3 Four Key Topics 4 Innovations and Solutions in
Sustainability Science for Drylands Areas 5 Key Themes and Possible
Next Step Appendix A Agenda Appendix B Participants Appendix C
Biographical Sketches of Steering Committee Members and Presenters
For nearly a century, scientific advances have fueled progress in
U.S. agriculture to enable American producers to deliver safe and
abundant food domestically and provide a trade surplus in bulk and
high-value agricultural commodities and foods. Today, the U.S. food
and agricultural enterprise faces formidable challenges that will
test its long-term sustainability, competitiveness, and resilience.
On its current path, future productivity in the U.S. agricultural
system is likely to come with trade-offs. The success of
agriculture is tied to natural systems, and these systems are
showing signs of stress, even more so with the change in climate.
More than a third of the food produced is unconsumed, an
unacceptable loss of food and nutrients at a time of heightened
global food demand. Increased food animal production to meet
greater demand will generate more greenhouse gas emissions and
excess animal waste. The U.S. food supply is generally secure, but
is not immune to the costly and deadly shocks of continuing
outbreaks of food-borne illness or to the constant threat of pests
and pathogens to crops, livestock, and poultry. U.S. farmers and
producers are at the front lines and will need more tools to manage
the pressures they face. Science Breakthroughs to Advance Food and
Agricultural Research by 2030 identifies innovative, emerging
scientific advances for making the U.S. food and agricultural
system more efficient, resilient, and sustainable. This report
explores the availability of relatively new scientific developments
across all disciplines that could accelerate progress toward these
goals. It identifies the most promising scientific breakthroughs
that could have the greatest positive impact on food and
agriculture, and that are possible to achieve in the next decade
(by 2030). Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2
Crops 3 Animal Agriculture 4 Food Science and Technology 5 Soils 6
Water-Use Efficiency and Productivity 7 Data Science 8 A Systems
Approach 9 Strategy for 2030 Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of
Committee Members Appendix B: Open Session Meeting Agendas Appendix
C: IdeaBuzz Submissions Synopsis and Contributors
To achieve goals for climate and economic growth, "negative
emissions technologies" (NETs) that remove and sequester carbon
dioxide from the air will need to play a significant role in
mitigating climate change. Unlike carbon capture and storage
technologies that remove carbon dioxide emissions directly from
large point sources such as coal power plants, NETs remove carbon
dioxide directly from the atmosphere or enhance natural carbon
sinks. Storing the carbon dioxide from NETs has the same impact on
the atmosphere and climate as simultaneously preventing an equal
amount of carbon dioxide from being emitted. Recent analyses found
that deploying NETs may be less expensive and less disruptive than
reducing some emissions, such as a substantial portion of
agricultural and land-use emissions and some transportation
emissions. In 2015, the National Academies published Climate
Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration,
which described and initially assessed NETs and sequestration
technologies. This report acknowledged the relative paucity of
research on NETs and recommended development of a research agenda
that covers all aspects of NETs from fundamental science to
full-scale deployment. To address this need, Negative Emissions
Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda assesses
the benefits, risks, and "sustainable scale potential" for NETs and
sequestration. This report also defines the essential components of
a research and development program, including its estimated costs
and potential impact. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1
Introduction 2 Coastal Blue Carbon 3 Terrestrial Carbon Removal and
Sequestration 4 Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration 5
Direct Air Capture 6 Carbon Mineralization of CO2 7 Sequestration
of Supercritical CO2 in Deep Sedimentary Geological Formations 8
Synthesis Glossary Acronyms and Abbreviations References Appendix
A: Committee Bios Appendix B: Disclosure of Conflict of Interest
Appendix C: Coastal Blue Carbon:Macroalgae Appendix D: CO2 Flux
Calculation Appendix E: Carbon Mineralization Appendix F: Geologic
Storage
Understanding, quantifying, and tracking atmospheric methane and
emissions is essential for addressing concerns and informing
decisions that affect the climate, economy, and human health and
safety. Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) that
contributes to global warming. While carbon dioxide is by far the
dominant cause of the rise in global average temperatures, methane
also plays a significant role because it absorbs more energy per
unit mass than carbon dioxide does, giving it a disproportionately
large effect on global radiative forcing. In addition to
contributing to climate change, methane also affects human health
as a precursor to ozone pollution in the lower atmosphere.
Improving Characterization of Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in
the United States summarizes the current state of understanding of
methane emissions sources and the measurement approaches and
evaluates opportunities for methodological and inventory
development improvements. This report will inform future research
agendas of various U.S. agencies, including NOAA, the EPA, the DOE,
NASA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the National
Science Foundation (NSF). Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1
Introduction 2 Current Inventories of Methane Emissions 3 Methane
Emission Measurement and Monitoring Methods 4 Addressing
Uncertainties in Anthropogenic Methane Emissions 5 Presenting
Methane Emission Data and Results 6 Meeting the Challenges of
Characterizing Methane Emissions References Glossary Appendix A:
Acronyms and Abbreviations Appendix B: Definition of U.S.
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Categories Appendix C: Other Anthropogenic
Sources of Methane Appendix D: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Development Appendix E: Acknowledgment of Those Who Provided Input
to the Committee Appendix F: Common Units for Reporting Methane
Concentrations and Emissions Appendix G: Biographical Sketches of
Committee Members Appendix H: Disclosure of Conflict of Interest
Our ability to observe and forecast severe weather events has
improved markedly over the past few decades. Forecasts of snow and
ice storms, hurricanes and storm surge, extreme heat, and other
severe weather events are made with greater accuracy, geographic
specificity, and lead time to allow people and communities to take
appropriate protective measures. Yet hazardous weather continues to
cause loss of life and result in other preventable social costs.
There is growing recognition that a host of social and behavioral
factors affect how we prepare for, observe, predict, respond to,
and are impacted by weather hazards. For example, an individual's
response to a severe weather event may depend on their
understanding of the forecast, prior experience with severe
weather, concerns about their other family members or property,
their capacity to take the recommended protective actions, and
numerous other factors. Indeed, it is these factors that can
determine whether or not a potential hazard becomes an actual
disaster. Thus, it is essential to bring to bear expertise in the
social and behavioral sciences (SBS)?including disciplines such as
anthropology, communication, demography, economics, geography,
political science, psychology, and sociology?to understand how
people's knowledge, experiences, perceptions, and attitudes shape
their responses to weather risks and to understand how human
cognitive and social dynamics affect the forecast process itself.
Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather
Enterprise explores and provides guidance on the challenges of
integrating social and behavioral sciences within the weather
enterprise. It assesses current SBS activities, describes the
potential value of improved integration of SBS and barriers that
impede this integration, develops a research agenda, and identifies
infrastructural and institutional arrangements for successfully
pursuing SBS-weather research and the transfer of relevant findings
to operational settings. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1
Introduction 2 The Motivation for Integrating Social and Behavioral
Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise 3 Assessing the Current
State of Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather
Enterprise 4 Social and Behavioral Sciences for Road Weather
Concerns 5 Research Needs for Improving the Nation's Weather
Readiness and Advancing Fundamental Social and Behavioral Science
Knowledge 6 A Framework to Sustainably Support and Effectively Use
Social and Behavioral Science Research in the Weather Enterprise 7
Summary of Key Findings and Recommendations References Appendix A:
Examples of Funding for Social and Behavioral Science Activities by
NOAA, NSF, DHS Appendix B: Lessons from SBS Integration into the
"Public Health Enterprise" Appendix C: People Who Provided Input to
the Committee Appendix D: Committee Biosketches Appendix E:
Acronyms
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Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report (Paperback)
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee to Review the Draft Climate Science Special Report
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The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is moving
towards a sustained assessment process that allows for more fluid
and consistent integration of scientific knowledge into the
mandated quadrennial National Climate Assessment. As part of this
process, the USGCRP is developing the Climate Science Special
Report (CSSR), a technical report that details the current
state-of-science relating to climate change and its physical
impacts. The CSSR is intended to focus on climate change in the
United States and to inform future USGCRP products. Review of the
Draft Climate Science Special Report assesses whether the draft
CSSR accurately presents the scientific literature in an
understandable, transparent and traceable way; whether the CSSR
authors handled the data, analyses, and statistical approaches in
an appropriate manner; and the effectiveness of the report in
conveying the information clearly for the intended audience. This
report provides recommendations for how the draft CSSR could be
strengthened. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary I.
Introduction II. Synthesis of Comments on the Draft Climate Science
Special Report III. Comments on Each Chapter of the Draft Climate
Science Special Report References Appendix A: Line Comments
Appendix B: Statement of Task Appendix C: Committee Biographies
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Accomplishments of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (Paperback)
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Environmental Change and Society, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, …
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R950
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The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is an interagency
program, established by the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of
1990, mandated by Congress to "assist the Nation and the world to
understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and
natural processes of global change". Since the USGCRP began,
scientific understanding of global change has increased and the
information needs of the nation have changed dramatically. A better
understanding of what is changing and why can help decision makers
in the public and private sectors cope with ongoing change.
Accomplishments of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
highlights the growth of global change science in the quarter
century that the USGCRP has been in existence, and documents some
of its contributions to that growth through its primary functions
of interagency planning and coordination, and of synthesis of
research and practice to inform decision making. Table of Contents
Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Strategic Planning and
Coordination 3 Assessments and Stakeholder Engagement 4 Building on
the Accomplishments of the USGCRP for the Next 25 Years References
Acronyms Appendix A: Global Change Research Act of 1990 Appendix B:
Statement of Task Appendix C: List of USGCRP Products Appendix D:
List of National Academies Reports for the USGCRP Appendix E: Table
of USGCRP Strategic Planning Goals and Objectives Appendix F:
Committee Member Biographies
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established in
1990 to "assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess,
predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of
global change."1 A key responsibility for the program is to conduct
National Climate Assessments (NCAs) every 4 years.2 These
assessments are intended to inform the nation about "observed
changes in climate, the current status of the climate, and
anticipated trends for the future." The USGCRP hopes that
government entities from federal agencies to small municipalities,
citizens, communities, and businesses will rely on these
assessments of climate- related risks for planning and
decision-making. The third NCA (NCA3) was published in 2014 and
work on the fourth is beginning. The USGCRP asked the Board on
Environmental Change and Society of the National Academies of
Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a workshop to
explore ways to frame the NCA4 and subsequent NCA reports in terms
of risks to society. The workshop was intended to collect
experienced views on how to characterize and communicate
information about climate-related hazards, risks, and opportunities
that will support decision makers in their efforts to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, reduce vulnerability to likely changes in
climate, and increase resilience to those changes. Characterizing
Risk in Climate Change Assessments summarizes the presentations and
discussions from the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter 1
Introduction 2 Characterizing and Communicating Risk 3 Cases:
Methods and Approaches for Risk Assessment and Communication 4
Strategies for the Fourth National Climate Assessment References
Appendix A: Workshop Agenda Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of
Committee Members and Presenters
Many factors contribute to variability in Earth's climate on a
range of timescales, from seasons to decades. Natural climate
variability arises from two different sources: (1) internal
variability from interactions among components of the climate
system, for example, between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (2)
natural external forcings, such as variations in the amount of
radiation from the Sun. External forcings on the climate system
also arise from some human activities, such as the emission of
greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The climate that we
experience is a combination of all of these factors. Understanding
climate variability on the decadal timescale is important to
decision-making. Planners and policy makers want information about
decadal variability in order to make decisions in a range of
sectors, including for infrastructure, water resources,
agriculture, and energy. In September 2015, the National Academies
of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to
examine variability in Earth's climate on decadal timescales,
defined as 10 to 30 years. During the workshop, ocean and climate
scientists reviewed the state of the science of decadal climate
variability and its relationship to rates of human-caused global
warming, and they explored opportunities for improvement in
modeling and observations and assessing knowledge gaps. Frontiers
in Decadal Climate Variability summarizes the presentations and
discussions from the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter
Overview Introduction Challenges in Examining Climate Trends Modes
and Mechanisms of Internal Variability The Role of External Forcing
Overcoming Data Limitations Toward Predictability Frontiers and
Research Opportunities References Appendix A: Statement of Task
Appendix B: Planning Committee Biographical Sketches Appendix C:
Workshop Agenda Appendix D: Workshop Participants Appendix E: Panel
Presentation Abstracts Appendix F: Song Lyrics
The Update to the Strategic Plan (USP) is a supplement to the
Ten-Year Strategic Plan of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) completed in 2012. The Strategic Plan sets out a research
program guiding thirteen federal agencies in accord with the Global
Change Research Act of 1990. This report reviews whether USGCRP's
efforts to achieve its goals and objectives, as documented in the
USP, are adequate and responsive to the Nation's needs, whether the
priorities for continued or increased emphasis are appropriate, and
if the written document communicates effectively, all within a
context of the history and trajectory of the Program. Table of
Contents Front Matter Summary Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview
Chapter 2: Setting Priorities for Global Change Research Chapter 3:
Science Focus and Scope Chapter 4: Review of Decision Suppor
tObjectives and Plans Chapter 5: Concluding Comments References
Appendix A: Statement of Task for This Report Appendix B: Overall
Charge for the Advisory Committee to the U.S. Global Change
Research Program Appendix C: Committee Biographies Appendix D:
Line-by-line Comments Submitted by Committee Members Appendix E:
Goals and Objectives in the 2012 USGCRP Strategic Plan
Climate change, driven by increases in human-produced greenhouse
gases and particles (collectively referred to as GHGs), is the most
serious environmental issue facing society. The need to reduce GHGs
has become urgent as heat waves, heavy rain events, and other
impacts of climate change have become more frequent and severe.
Since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, more than 136
countries, accounting for about 80% of total global GHG emissions,
have committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. A growing
number of cities, regional governments, and industries have also
made pledges to reduce emissions. Providing decision makers with
useful, accurate, and trusted GHG emissions information is a
crucial part of this effort. This report examines existing and
emerging approaches used to generate and evaluate GHG emissions
information at global to local scales. The report develops a
framework for evaluating GHG emissions information to support and
guide policy makers about its use in decision making. The framework
identifies six criteria or pillars that can be used to evaluate and
improve GHG emissions information: usability and timeliness,
information transparency, evaluation and validation, completeness,
inclusivity, and communication. The report recommends creating a
coordinated repository or clearinghouse to operationalize the six
pillars, for example, by providing timely, transparent, traceable
information; standardized data formats; and governance mechanisms
that are coordinated, trusted, and inclusive of the global
community. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2
Current Approaches for Quantifying Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas
Emissions 3 Structural and Technical Limitations of the Current
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Information Landscape 4 Framework for
Evaluating Greenhouse Gas Emissions Information 5 Recommendations
References Appendix A: Acronyms, Initialisms, and Glossary Appendix
B: Atmospheric Observations: Methods and Examples Appendix C:
Contributors of Input to the Study Appendix D: Biographical
Sketches of Committee Members Appendix E: Disclosure of Unavoidable
Conflicts of Interest
Detailed weather observations on local and regional levels are
essential to a range of needs from forecasting tornadoes to making
decisions that affect energy security, public health and safety,
transportation, agriculture and all of our economic interests. As
technological capabilities have become increasingly affordable,
businesses, state and local governments, and individual weather
enthusiasts have set up observing systems throughout the United
States. However, because there is no national network tying many of
these systems together, data collection methods are inconsistent
and public accessibility is limited. This book identifies
short-term and long-term goals for federal government sponsors and
other public and private partners in establishing a coordinated
nationwide "network of networks" of weather and climate
observations. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction
2 Observations Supporting the Fundamental Infrastructure for
Mesoscale Monitoring and Prediction 3 National Needs for Mesoscale
Observations in Five Economic Sectors 4 Observing Systems and
Technologies: Successes and Challenges 5 Architecture for a Network
of Networks 6 How to Get from Here to There: Steps to Ensure
Progress 7 Organizational Attributes and Options for a Fully
Integrated NoN that Meets Multiple National Needs 8 Concluding
Thoughts References Appendix A: A Rationale for Choosing the
Spatial Density and Temporal Frequency of Observations for Various
Atmospheric Phenomena Appendix B: Tables of Surface-Based Observing
Systems Appendix C: Acronyms and Initialisms Appendix D: Statement
of Task Appendix E: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and
Staff
The report explores how best to communicate weather and climate
information by presenting five case studies, selected to illustrate
a range of time scales and issues, from the forecasting of weather
events, to providing seasonal outlooks, to projecting climate
change.
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Weather Radar Technology Beyond Nexrad (Paperback)
Committee on Weather Radar Technology Beyond NEXRAD, National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences & Climate
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Weather radar is a vital instrument for observing the atmosphere to
help provide weather forecasts and issue weather warnings to the
public. The current Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system
provides Doppler radar coverage to most regions of the United
States (NRC, 1995). This network was designed in the mid 1980s and
deployed in the 1990s as part of the National Weather Service (NWS)
modernization (NRC, 1999). Since the initial design phase of the
NEXRAD program, considerable advances have been made in radar
technologies and in the use of weather radar for monitoring and
prediction. The development of new technologies provides the
motivation for appraising the status of the current weather radar
system and identifying the most promising approaches for the
development of its eventual replacement. The charge to the
committee was to determine the state of knowledge regarding
ground-based weather surveillance radar technology and identify the
most promising approaches for the design of the replacement for the
present Doppler Weather Radar. This report presents a first look at
potential approaches for future upgrades to or replacements of the
current weather radar system. The need, and schedule, for replacing
the current system has not been established, but the committee used
the briefings and deliberations to assess how the current system
satisfies the current and emerging needs of the operational and
research communities and identified potential system upgrades for
providing improved weather forecasts and warnings. The time scale
for any total replacement of the system (20- to 30-year time
horizon) precluded detailed investigation of the designs and cost
structures associated with any new weather radar system. The
committee instead noted technologies that could provide
improvements over the capabilities of the evolving NEXRAD system
and recommends more detailed investigation and evaluation of
several of these technologies. In the course of its deliberations,
the committee developed a sense that the processes by which the
eventual replacement radar system is developed and deployed could
be as significant as the specific technologies adopted.
Consequently, some of the committee's recommendations deal with
such procedural issues.
A Climate Services Vision: First Steps Toward the Future describes
the types of products that should be provided through a climate
service; outlines the roles of the public, private, and academic
sectors in a climate service; describe fundamental principles that
should be followed in the provision of climate services; and
describes potential audiences and providers of climate services.
Table of Contents Front Matter Executive Summary 1 Introduction 2
Evolution of Climate Services in the United States 3 Guiding
Principles for Climate Services 4 First Step Toward an Effective
Climate Service References Acronyms and Abbreviations Board
Members' Biographies Appendix A: Statement of Task Appendix B:
Workshop Participants Appendix C: Agenda Appendix D: Examples of
Areas of Climate Information Requests
Wildland fires pose a growing threat to air quality and human
health. Fire is a natural part of many landscapes, but the extent
of area burned and the severity of fires have been increasing,
concurrent with human movement into previously uninhabited
fire-prone areas and forest management practices that have
increased fuel loads. These changes heighten the risk of exposure
to fire itself and emissions (smoke), which can travel thousands of
miles and affect millions of people, creating local, regional, and
national air quality and health concerns. To address this growing
threat, the National Academies brought together atmospheric
chemistry and health research communities, natural resource
managers, and decision makers to discuss current knowledge and
needs surrounding how wildland fire emissions affect air quality
and human health. Participants also explored opportunities to
better bridge these communities to advance science and improve the
production and exchange of information. This publication summarizes
the workshop discussions and themes that emerged throughout the
meeting. Table of Contents Front Matter Overview Introduction
Wildfires and Human Health - An Overview Where Are We Now? Where Do
We Want to Be? How Do We Get There? References Appendix A:
Statement of Task Appendix B: Planning Committee Biographical
Sketches Appendix C: Workshop Agenda
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