Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell's ""theory of the predictable campaign,"" incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions. Campbell's cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists' ways of studying them. ""The American Campaign"" also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns. This excellent election-year text provides: a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes; a historical summary of many of America's important presidential elections; and a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter.

This book takes a look at how certain thinking processes create "psychiatric" symptoms, and how different choices can eliminate those experiences. Better understanding of the accurate meaning of commonly uses words can improve the likelyhood of working through conflicts with others, and can improve the quality of one's life.

Psychological Therapy in a Pharmacological World has been written to encourage an alternative look at current day approaches to psychiatric therapy, and to share with my colleagues insights I have gained over 40 years of practice. Understanding the psychological world from a different vantage point. Show how accurate speech helps to understand and resolve many psychiatric problems. Show how and why immediate relief from psychological pain is possible. See how your thinking actually creates your psychological pain. Why some depressions are better off not being treated as depression. Teach your patients how to get rid of anger forever. Understand the childhood belief system that generates adult psychopathology. Learn how a better defi nition of responsibility can help solve problems in therapy. New ways to look at guilt and shame. Learn to use psychological language to treat psychological problems. Learn how education could extinguish many psychiatric problems.

Teachers and Mental Health is my attempt to teach theteachers of children (teachers and parents) some of whatI have learned over 40 years of doing therapy, about therather simple, but apparently poorly understood factors inchildhood thinking that go on to create a lot of mentaldistress by adulthood. Some of the points in this book are: Teachers teach correct speech, but most do not teach accurate speech We end up believing what we say, which is why it is so impor tant tosay it accurately We end up acting on what we believe, which is another r eason whyit is so impor tant to say it accurately Children have a delusional belief system that sometimes continuesthroughout adult life A minimum of half of the world is in a delusional state all the time, and 98% of people respond to at least one situation in a delusionalfashion one or more times during an average day. Our general understanding of the word responsible, contributes greatlyto misunderstandings and poor outcomes in life Failure to understand high and low levels of abstraction in our speech(and thinking) generates mistakes in communication.

Since the famous 1948 Dewey/Truman election, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. Editors James Campbell and James Garand have pulled together some of the leading figures in political science to present their forecasts of the 1996 presidential election, along with accompanying analyses which discuss their methodology. Despite the relative lack of suspense about the eventual outcome, the various contributors have some very different angles on the enterprise of forecasting. Before the Vote presents a series of critiques, from prominent political scientists who look at the forecasting enterprise. Issues include whether more accurate models of predicting voter behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the eventual winner will be. It will be a valuable addition to the bookshelves of political scientists interested in American electoral politics and those interested in broad questions surrounding social science research methods. This book is targeted toward MSGI courses in political science, American government, American politics, parties and elections, public opinion and participation, media and politics, political analysis, and scholars who work in these areas.

Many continue to believe that the United States is a nation of political moderates. In fact, it is a nation divided. It has been so for some time and has grown more so. This book provides a new and historically grounded perspective on the polarization of America, systematically documenting how and why it happened. Polarized presents commonsense benchmarks to measure polarization, draws data from a wide range of historical sources, and carefully assesses the quality of the evidence. Through an innovative and insightful use of circumstantial evidence, it provides a much-needed reality check to claims about polarization. This rigorous yet engaging and accessible book examines how polarization displaced pluralism and how this affected American democracy and civil society. Polarized challenges the widely held belief that polarization is the product of party and media elites, revealing instead how the American public in the 1960s set in motion the increase of polarization. American politics became highly polarized from the bottom up, not the top down, and this began much earlier than often thought. The Democrats and the Republicans are now ideologically distant from each other and about equally distant from the political center. Polarized also explains why the parties are polarized at all, despite their battle for the decisive median voter. No subject is more central to understanding American politics than political polarization, and no other book offers a more in-depth and comprehensive analysis of the subject than this one.

An intriguing phenomenon in American electoral politics is the loss of seats by the president's party in midterm congressional elections. Between 1862 and 1990, the president's party lost seats in the House of Representatives in 32 of the 33 midterm elections. In his new study, James Campbell examines explanations for these midterm losses and explores how presidential elections influence congressional elections.

After reviewing the two major theories of midterm electoral change-the "surge and decline" theory and the theory of midterms as referenda on presidential performance Campbell draws upon each to propose and test a new theory. He asserts that in the years of presidential elections congressmen ride presidential coattails into office, while in midterm elections such candidates are stranded. An additional factor is the strength of the presidential vote, which influences the number of seats that are won, only to be lost later.

Finally, Campbell examines how the presidential pulse may affect electoral accountability, the relationship between Congress and the president, and the relative strength of Congress, the president, and political parties. He explores the implications of the presidential pulse for understanding electoral change, evaluating the American voter'scompetence, and assessing the importance of split-ticket voting.

Including both election returns and survey data, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections offers a fresh perspective on congressional elections, voting behavior, Congress, and the presidency.

An eye-opening look at how and why America has become so politically polarized Many continue to believe that the United States is a nation of political moderates. In fact, it is a nation divided. It has been so for some time and has grown more so. This book provides a new and historically grounded perspective on the polarization of America, systematically documenting how and why it happened. Polarized presents commonsense benchmarks to measure polarization, draws data from a wide range of historical sources, and carefully assesses the quality of the evidence. Through an innovative and insightful use of circumstantial evidence, it provides a much-needed reality check to claims about polarization. This rigorous yet engaging and accessible book examines how polarization displaced pluralism and how this affected American democracy and civil society. Polarized challenges the widely held belief that polarization is the product of party and media elites, revealing instead how the American public in the 1960s set in motion the increase of polarization. American politics became highly polarized from the bottom up, not the top down, and this began much earlier than often thought. The Democrats and the Republicans are now ideologically distant from each other and about equally distant from the political center. Polarized also explains why the parties are polarized at all, despite their battle for the decisive median voter. No subject is more central to understanding American politics than political polarization, and no other book offers a more in-depth and comprehensive analysis of the subject than this one.

Psychological Therapy in a Pharmacological World has been written to encourage an alternative look at current day approaches to psychiatric therapy, and to share with my colleagues insights I have gained over 40 years of practice. Understanding the psychological world from a different vantage point. Show how accurate speech helps to understand and resolve many psychiatric problems. Show how and why immediate relief from psychological pain is possible. See how your thinking actually creates your psychological pain. Why some depressions are better off not being treated as depression. Teach your patients how to get rid of anger forever. Understand the childhood belief system that generates adult psychopathology. Learn how a better defi nition of responsibility can help solve problems in therapy. New ways to look at guilt and shame. Learn to use psychological language to treat psychological problems. Learn how education could extinguish many psychiatric problems.

This book takes a look at how certain thinking processes create "psychiatric" symptoms, and how different choices can eliminate those experiences. Better understanding of the accurate meaning of commonly uses words can improve the likelyhood of working through conflicts with others, and can improve the quality of one's life.

Teachers and Mental Health is my attempt to teach theteachers of children (teachers and parents) some of whatI have learned over 40 years of doing therapy, about therather simple, but apparently poorly understood factors inchildhood thinking that go on to create a lot of mentaldistress by adulthood. Some of the points in this book are: Teachers teach correct speech, but most do not teach accurate speech We end up believing what we say, which is why it is so impor tant tosay it accurately We end up acting on what we believe, which is another r eason whyit is so impor tant to say it accurately Children have a delusional belief system that sometimes continuesthroughout adult life A minimum of half of the world is in a delusional state all the time, and 98% of people respond to at least one situation in a delusionalfashion one or more times during an average day. Our general understanding of the word responsible, contributes greatlyto misunderstandings and poor outcomes in life Failure to understand high and low levels of abstraction in our speech(and thinking) generates mistakes in communication.

Since the famous 1948 Dewey/Truman election, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. Editors James Campbell and James Garand have pulled together some of the leading figures in political science to present their forecasts of the 1996 presidential election, along with accompanying analyses which discuss their methodology. Despite the relative lack of suspense about the eventual outcome, the various contributors have some very different angles on the enterprise of forecasting. Before the Vote presents a series of critiques, from prominent political scientists who look at the forecasting enterprise. Issues include whether more accurate models of predicting voter behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the eventual winner will be. It will be a valuable addition to the bookshelves of political scientists interested in American electoral politics and those interested in broad questions surrounding social science research methods.

This book is targeted toward MSGI courses in political science, American government, American politics, parties and elections, public opinion and participation, media and politics, political analysis, and scholars who work in these areas.