Elgar Advanced Introductions are stimulating and thoughtful introductions to major fields in the social sciences, business and law, expertly written by the world's leading scholars. Designed to be accessible yet rigorous, they offer concise and lucid surveys of the substantive and policy issues associated with discrete subject areas. Providing a panoramic overview of the evolving world of scenario planning, this Advanced Introduction uses topical case studies to analyze the developing methodologies of scenario planning. Written by Paul J.H. Schoemaker, a leading authority on the topic, this book synthesizes rigorous theory and practical experiences including best practises, normative views, and future challenges or opportunities for scenario planning. Key Features: Explains why future uncertainties require more than traditional risk analysis when ambiguous unknowns or Black Swans are involved Illustrates scenario planning through an in-depth case analysis of the biosciences which, in the wake of global pandemics, are gaining in societal import Examines how historical thinking and historiography can enrich scenarios by revisiting future projections made for South Africa post-apartheid Shows why scenario planning fosters critical and creative thinking by overcoming myopic framing, overconfidence and other biases in organizations Examines methodological and statistical techniques in scenario planning, including model building and simulations, and their connections to strategy formulation Interdisciplinary in its approach, this Advanced Introduction will prove invaluable to students and scholars of public policy, business management, and organizational studies. Its tools and practical advice will also be a vital resource to practitioners and policy leaders involved in leading or implementing scenario planning in their organizations.

Elgar Advanced Introductions are stimulating and thoughtful introductions to major fields in the social sciences, business and law, expertly written by the world's leading scholars. Designed to be accessible yet rigorous, they offer concise and lucid surveys of the substantive and policy issues associated with discrete subject areas. Providing a panoramic overview of the evolving world of scenario planning, this Advanced Introduction uses topical case studies to analyze the developing methodologies of scenario planning. Written by Paul J.H. Schoemaker, a leading authority on the topic, this book synthesizes rigorous theory and practical experiences including best practises, normative views, and future challenges or opportunities for scenario planning. Key Features: Explains why future uncertainties require more than traditional risk analysis when ambiguous unknowns or Black Swans are involved Illustrates scenario planning through an in-depth case analysis of the biosciences which, in the wake of global pandemics, are gaining in societal import Examines how historical thinking and historiography can enrich scenarios by revisiting future projections made for South Africa post-apartheid Shows why scenario planning fosters critical and creative thinking by overcoming myopic framing, overconfidence and other biases in organizations Examines methodological and statistical techniques in scenario planning, including model building and simulations, and their connections to strategy formulation Interdisciplinary in its approach, this Advanced Introduction will prove invaluable to students and scholars of public policy, business management, and organizational studies. Its tools and practical advice will also be a vital resource to practitioners and policy leaders involved in leading or implementing scenario planning in their organizations.

Is your business playing it safe&#8212or taking the right risks? If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear. This book will inspire you to: Avoid the most common errors in risk management Understand the three distinct categories of risk and tailor your risk-management processes accordingly Embrace uncertainty as a key element of breakthrough innovation Adopt best practices for mitigating political threats Upgrade your organization's forecasting capabilities to gain a competitive edge Detect and neutralize cyberattacks originating inside your company This collection of articles includes "Managing Risks: A New Framework," by Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes; "How to Build Risk into Your Business Model," by Karan Girotra and Serguei Netessine; "The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management," by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel; "From Superstorms to Factory Fires: Managing Unpredictable Supply-Chain Disruptions," by David Simchi-Levi, William Schmidt, and Yehua Wei; "Is It Real? Can We Win? Is It Worth Doing?: Managing Risk and Reward in an Innovation Portfolio," by George S. Day; "Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company's Judgment," by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock; "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk," by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart; "How to Scandal-Proof Your Company," by Paul Healy and George Serafeim; "Beating the Odds When You Launch a New Venture," by Clark Gilbert and Matthew Eyring; "The Danger from Within," by David M. Upton and Sadie Creese; and "Future-Proof Your Climate Strategy," by Joseph E. Aldy and Gianfranco Gianfrate.

This long-awaited textbook provides a unified perspective of a rich and varied field. It recognises that in order to develop strategies for improving the decision-making process one needs to understand how decisions are made in practice and in what ways behaviour differs from guidelines implied by normative theories of choice. It is the interplay between descriptive, normative, and prescriptive analysis that gives this book a special flavour. Using a set of illustrative examples, Decision Sciences synthesises current research about different types of decision making, including individual, group, organisational, and societal. Special attention is given to the linkage between problem finding and problem solving. The principal message emerging from the book is that decision making entails a complex set of processes that need to be understood in order to develop sound prescriptions or policy advice.

This long-awaited textbook provides a unified perspective of a rich and varied field. Using a set of illustrative examples, Decision Sciences synthesizes current research about different types of decision making, including individual, group, organizational, and societal. Special attention is given to the linkage between problem finding and problem solving. The principal message emerging from the book is that decision making entails a complex set of processes that need to be understood in order to develop sound prescriptions or policy advice.

Emerging technologies such as the Internet and biotechnology have the potential to create new industries and transform existing ones. Incumbent firms, despite their superior resources, often lose out to smaller rivals in developing emerging technologies. Why do these incumbents have so much difficulty with disruptive technologies? How can they anticipate and overcome their handicaps?

Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies presents insights, tools, and frameworks from leading busi-ness thinkers based on the research of Wharton's Emerging Technologies Management Research Program. This pioneering industry-academic partnership, established in 1994, is one of the longest and broadest initiatives on the management of emerging technologies. For the first time, this book distills the insights from the program into a single volume for managers, covering a wide range of issues related to the successful management of emerging technologies.

The editors contend that managing emerging technologies represents a "different game," requiring a different set of management skills, frameworks, and strategies than those used by established firms to manage existing technologies. In this book, experts from diverse fields examine key issues such as: Common pitfalls and potential solutions for incumbent firms in managing emerging technologiesStrategies for assessing the potential of new markets and designing technologies to take advantage of market "lumpiness"The need for scenario planning and "disciplined imagination" to develop strategies under uncertaintyThe limits of patents in protecting gains from technology, and the use of lead time and other strategiesThe power of innovative financial strategies and the use of real options in making investmentsUsing alliances and new organizational formsDeveloping a "customized workplace""Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies" represents a powerful survival kit for managers "dropped behind the lines" of these new technologies. The authors provide a comprehensive set of tools and insights that will help you understand the new challenges and develop effective strategies to succeed at this different game.

Praise for WHARTON on MANAGING EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

"New technologies are transforming markets, businesses, and society at an ever-increasing rate. We have a critical need for better road maps for managing our way through this new terrain. This book offers critical insights and useful new models for thinking through these challenges."
--Professor Thomas Gerrity, Director of the Wharton e-Commerce Forum

""Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies" covers the emerging technology landscape-from strategy to finance to human resources-in a way that only a group of top scholars from many disciplines could do. Insightful, accessible, and smart ideas that make for 'must reading' for thoughtful executives in today's turbulent economy. The authors prove, once again, the power of research to yield deep insight into tough business problems."
--Kathleen M. Eisenhardt, Professor of Strategy and Organization, Stanford University and coauthor, "Competing on the Edge: Strategy As Structured Chaos"

"Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies offers valuable insight for large established companies seeking growth in a dynamic market of rapid technological advancement. The entertaining cases and thoughtful analyses help managers create strategies, select options, and organize to successfully manage the interface between imagination and knowledge."
--Jerry Karabelas, PhD, CEO, Novartis Pharma AG

Named #1 Best Business Book of 2011, by Patriot-News-PennLive.com If you have ever flown in an airplane, used electricity from a nuclear power plant, or taken an antibiotic, you have benefited from a brilliant mistake. Each of these life-changing innovations was the result of many missteps and an occasional brilliant insight that turned a mistake into a surprising portal of discovery. In Brilliant Mistakes, Paul Schoemaker, founder and chairman of Decision Strategies International, shares critical insights on the surprising benefits of making well-chosen mistakes. Brilliant Mistakes explores why minimizing mistakes may be the greatest mistake of all, situations when mistakes are most beneficial and when they should be avoided, the counter-intuitive idea that we should deliberately permit errors at times, and how to make the most of brilliant mistakes to improve business results. Brilliant Mistakes is based on solid academic research and insights from Schoemaker's work with more than 100 organizations, as well as his provocative Harvard Business Review article with Robert Gunther, "The Wisdom of Deliberate Mistakes." Schoemaker provides a practical roadmap for using mistakes to accelerate learning for your organization and yourself.

How organizations can anticipate threats, spot opportunities, and act faster when the time is right; with rich examples including Adobe, MasterCard, and Amazon. When turbulence is the new normal, an organization's survival depends on vigilant leadership that can anticipate threats, spot opportunities, and act quickly when the time is right. In See Sooner, Act Faster, strategy experts George Day and Paul Schoemaker offer tools for thriving when digital advances intensify turbulence. Vigilant firms have greater foresight than their rivals, while vulnerable firms often miss early signals of external threats and organizational challenges. Charles Schwab, for example, was early to see and act on the promise of "robo-advisors"; Honeywell, on the other hand, stumbled when Nest Labs came out first with a "smart" thermostat. Day and Schoemaker show leaders how to assess their vigilance capabilities and cultivate insight and foresight throughout their organizations. They draw on a range of cases, including Adobe and Intuit's move to the cloud, Shell's investment in clean energy, and MasterCard's early recognition of digital challenges. Day and Schoemaker describe how to allocate the scarce resource of attention, how to detect weak signals and separate them from background noise, and how to respond strategically before competitors do. The challenge is not just to act faster but to act wisely, and the authors suggest ways to create dynamic portfolios of options. Finally, they offer an action agenda, with tips for fostering vigilance and agility throughout an organization. The rewards are stronger market positions, higher profits and growth, more motivated employees, and organization longevity.