In the 1980s the world spent an enormous amount on preparations for war. Year by year, more and more resources went into the military sector. More and more complex weapon systems were devised. At the time, of all research scientists and engineers in the world, more than one in four was working for the military. Throughout the 40 years since the end of World War II, the technological arms race continued. Then began moving faster. The United States lead the way, followed by the Soviet Union. Between them, they possessed some 50 000 nuclear warheads-more than enough to destroy the world. They planned to increase the number, to make the weapons more accurate, and to base them on new weapon platforms closer to the borders of the other side. Some people preferred not to think about these things. Many, however, were becoming increasingly concerned-wondering about the future for themselves and for their children. Originally published in 1985, this book was for those who wanted to know what was happening. What new missiles were being built? What was happening in outer space? What are the facts about chemical weapons? What progress was being made (if any) in Geneva, Vienna and Stockholm, where the powers were negotiating on these matters?

Originally published in 1982, this is the most comprehensive handbook on arms control ever published. It contains an analysis of the bilateral and multilateral agreements reached since World War II. An assessment is made of the extent to which each agreement has affected the arms race, reduced the likelihood of war or otherwise contributed to the overall goal of disarmament. Ongoing arms control negotiations are also analyzed. The complex problem of verification of compliance with arms control obligations is critically examined, and the shortcomings of the existing arrangements are pointed out. The critique is searching, objective and free of the usual biases of official government reports. The analysis of the arms control agreements is preceded by an historical overview, beginning with the Hague Peace Conferences, held at the turn of this century, through the League of Nations' attempts to bring about a universal reduction of armaments, to the activities of the United Nations in the field of arms regulation and general disarmament. The present arms control negotiating machinery is described. The texts of the relevant documents are reproduced for handy reference and the status of the implementation of the most important multilateral arms control agreements is presented in tabular form. Tables and figures facilitate the reading.

In the 1970s tactical nuclear warfare was a topical issue. The introduction of the new generation of tactical nuclear weapons into Europe could have had disastrous consequences. These new weapons had already been developed by nuclear-weapon laboratories and pressures were growing for their deployment. On first sight, smaller and more accurate nuclear weapons may seem more humane and militarily preferable to the relatively high-yield tactical nuclear weapons currently deployed. But some of these new types of weapons would blur the distinction between nuclear and conventional weapons and their use would make escalation to strategic nuclear war extremely likely. Indeed, the argument for these new weapons is that their use in wartime is more credible (and therefore 'acceptable') than current types of tactical nuclear weapons. This perception could easily lead to the exceedingly dangerous idea that some types of tactical nuclear war were 'winnable'. The fact has to be faced that any use of nuclear weapons is almost certain to escalate until all available weapons are used. To believe otherwise is to believe that one side will surrender before it has used all the weapons in its arsenal. History shows that this is most unlikely to happen. Because of its importance, SIPRI organized a meeting to discuss the whole question. Originally published in 1978, this book is the outcome of that meeting.

Originally published in 1985, this book is the result of an exploration of the state papers of the United Kingdom undertaken with the aim of discovering information about the past use of chemical warfare. This information may serve as a point of historical reference in speculation upon the possible nature and consequences of large-scale chemical warfare recurring in Europe. Part I of the monograph concentrates primarily on material documenting the use of chemical weapons in the First and Second World Wars, the impact of this use on the civilian populations of France and Belgium, casualties incurred in the production, research, development, training and deployment of chemical warfare agents, and the attempts made to incorporate chemical weapons into military doctrine and war-preparedness. Part II supplements the citation of documents in Part I. It comprises an ordered bibliography listing not only the location of the records found to be of primary concern to this study, but also the location of other records not cited in Part I which appear to form much of the remainder of the official record of the British CW effort. A list of some of the papers which have not been released comprises the concluding section.

To constrain nuclear proliferation, one must, in addition to designing a proliferation-resistant nuclear fuel cycle, identify a set of long-term arms limitation and security policies for the major states. These policies should be capable of satisfying various security and political objectives of non-nuclear weapon states, thereby minimizing their incentives to acquire independent nuclear weapon capabilities, and thus collectively minimizing future nuclear proliferation. Originally published in 1979, this book attempts to identify such a comprehensive arms limitation and security regime. It reviews negotiations concerning the NPT through the end of the Review Conference of the NPT in mid-1975 and the subsequent strategic debate concerning nuclear proliferation.

Originally published in 1977, the purpose of this book was to analyse the relationship between the security of two states mutually undergoing strategic disarmament at the time and the need for safeguarding their security by means of a verification system. The book thus studies some of the basic problems in the disarmament debate, issues that had been the subject of great political controversy. Previous studies had been mainly descriptive or historical, lacking in objective political analysis, and tending to political bias, depending on the political school of the author. There was thus some justification for the statement made by some outstanding authorities in the field that 'to date, no systematic analysis has been attempted to determine what disarmament measures would optimally require of verification methods...' Our ambition is to respond to this criticism, at least so far as the strategic context of disarmament is concerned. Chapter 1 introduces us to the enormous range of repercussions caused by a disarmament agreement. Chapter 2 examines the concept of verification, analysing the meaning of the term, presenting various definitions of what verification is and attempting to systematize the concept. It has been noted on many occasions that the verification set up in a disarmament treaty is only one of a number of factors working towards compliance with a treaty. In fact the role of verification in presenting the treaty, and therefore the security of its participants, is to a large extent limited. However, without many other conditions being satisfied verification on its own can do little to preserve the treaty regime. Chapter 3 discusses these conditions. Chapter 4 gives a brief analysis of the concept of national interests in general, and the concept of national security in particular. Among all the elements of 'security', it is military security that plays by far the largest role. Because of this. Chapter 5 considers a specific case of strategic military security, in which security, defined as stable strategic deterrence between two states, is analysed. Finally, Chapter 6 analyses the question of what happens to security based on strategic deterrence when states enter into the disarmament process. More specifically, the role of verification in preserving security in such circumstances is analysed, thereby answering the main problem of the book. The supporting data for Chapter 6 is given in the Appendix.

First published in 1980, the original blurb read: In August - September 1980 the second Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will take place in Geneva. As this Treaty is the most important barrier to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the results of the Conference will obviously have major effects in the field of arms control and disarmament. The implications of the recent International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE) are that the technological capabilities of many countries are such that there is no technical solution to the problem of the spread of nuclear weapons to countries that do not now have them. Thus, it appears that if there is a solution at all, it must be political in nature. A possible element in such a political solution is the internationalization of the sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle; that is, those parts that have the potential of producing fissile materials to make nuclear weapons. Although the intricacies of a system of internationalization are still unresolved, the concept, if realized, would provide another powerful political barrier to nuclear weapon proliferation - a reinforcement for the aims of the NPT itself. Against this background, and as a follow-up to its first symposium and the resultant book, Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapon Proliferation, SIPRI convened a second international group of experts to continue its discussions of issues pertinent to the forthcoming NPT Review Conference. The meeting took place at SIPRI in Stockholm, 31 October - 2 November 1979, when the feasibility of internationalizing the nuclear fuel cycle was examined. SIPRI's views on this complex approach are expressed in Part 1 of this book - Internationalization to Prevent the Spread of Nuclear Weapons. Part 2 contains the papers that were presented at the symposium.

In mid-1980 a second conference for the review of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) would take place in Geneva. Given the importance of preventing, or at least slowing down, nuclear weapon proliferation, this conference would be a crucial event in the field of arms control and disarmament. For many countries the technical and economic barriers to proliferation had disappeared, and the only remaining barriers were political. In an attempt to contribute to the discussions at the NPT Review Conference, SIPRI assembled a group of experts from a number of countries to discuss the technical aspects of the control of fissionable materials in non-military applications. The meeting took place in Stockholm, 12-16 October 1978. Originally published in 1979, this book on nuclear energy and nuclear weapon proliferation contains the papers presented at the symposium and reflects the discussions at the meeting.

In the early 1980s there had been an upsurge of public concern over the nuclear threat to Europe. Already saturated with nuclear weapons, Europe faced controversial new deployments and there was alarm over military strategies for nuclear war in the region. It is in this context that the idea of nuclear weapon-free zones had captured the popular imagination and became a political issue in Europe. Not only would such zones build confidence and raise the nuclear threshold, but they would be first steps towards a more comprehensive elimination of nuclear weapons. Originally published in 1983 Nuclear Disengagement in Europe probes the question of nuclear weapon-free zones in the region. Pugwash and SIPRI arranged a meeting at which an international team of lawyers, scientists, politicians and military experts gave background information and provided an appraisal of problems regarding the zone initiatives as well as benefits that would accrue. Possible elements in a European zone arrangement were elaborated on and procedures towards the establishment of such a zone were suggested.

For the third year running, this book, originally published in 1984, provided those actively concerned with the dangers of war at the time, with well-researched and up-to-date information on military developments of every kind. Based on material published in the SIPRI Yearbook 1984, this book contains the essential data on nuclear issues, on military expenditure and the arms trade, and examines the breakdown of the arms control talks in 1983.

The debate on no-first-use of nuclear weapons has been conducted on a number of fronts. First use of nuclear weapons has come under challenge from many different directions: from church synods, from international lawyers, in debates at the United Nations, and from strategic thinkers. Originally published in 1984, this book takes stock for and against no-first-use and examines the political, military and arms control implications of such a commitment.

Safeguards play a key role in verifying the effectiveness of restraints on the spread of nuclear weapons. Originally published in 1985, this book is a study of the safeguards system of the International Atomic Energy Agency, an important element of the non-proliferation regime. It breaks new ground by focusing on the politics of safeguards, especially the political problems of the IAEA and of the day-to-day application of safeguards. It contains a critical appraisal and proposals for ways of improving existing procedures, and of adapting them to the political and technological changes of recent years. Safeguarding the Atom gives an analysis of the following questions: What are IAEA safeguards and how do they work? How effective are they? How can they be reinforced? What sanctions can be imposed in the event of non-compliance? IAEA safeguards represent the world's first and so far only attempt to verify an arms control agreement by systematic on-site inspection, and their applicability to other arms control measures is examined.

Is the appearance of new nuclear weapon states inevitable? Who are the sponsors and apologists of nuclear weapons, and why are others in favour of renouncing them? What are the implications for international security of the increasingly wide use of nuclear energy? How can nuclear threats be defused? Originally published in 1985, SIPRI's study suggests some answers to these questions. The book examines the situation in a number of countries of key importance for non-proliferation: the two nuclear-weapon states which have declined to join the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (China and France); a group of nuclear 'threshold' states also remaining outside the Treaty (Argentina, Brazil, India, Israel, Pakistan, South Africa and Spain); and a group of states, both developed and developing, which for various reasons have joined the Treaty (Canada, Egypt, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and Taiwan). The focus of the book is on motivations for and against nuclear proliferation. An analysis of these motivations leads the editor to make detailed recommendations aimed at halting the spread of nuclear weapons. Appendices include a list of nuclear facilities in the countries studied, specifying the degree of their coverage by international controls, and other relevant documentation.

Originally published in 1983, this book presents both the technical and political information necessary to evaluate the emerging threat to world security posed by recent advances in uranium enrichment technology. Uranium enrichment has played a relatively quiet but important role in the history of efforts by a number of nations to acquire nuclear weapons and by a number of others to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. For many years the uranium enrichment industry was dominated by a single method, gaseous diffusion, which was technically complex, extremely capital-intensive, and highly inefficient in its use of energy. As long as this remained true, only the richest and most technically advanced nations could afford to pursue the enrichment route to weapon acquisition. But during the 1970s this situation changed dramatically. Several new and far more accessible enrichment techniques were developed, stimulated largely by the anticipation of a rapidly growing demand for enrichment services by the world-wide nuclear power industry. This proliferation of new techniques, coupled with the subsequent contraction of the commercial market for enriched uranium, has created a situation in which uranium enrichment technology might well become the most important contributor to further nuclear weapon proliferation. Some of the issues addressed in this book are: A technical analysis of the most important enrichment techniques in a form that is relevant to analysis of proliferation risks; A detailed projection of the world demand for uranium enrichment services; A summary and critique of present institutional non-proliferation arrangements in the world enrichment industry, and An identification of the states most likely to pursue the enrichment route to acquisition of nuclear weapons.

Originally published in 1985, the level of anxiety and suspicion between the USA and the USSR had rarely been higher. Many advocates of arms control believed that effective verification would reduce tensions and lessen the risk of war. This book analyses the two main issues of verification. One is technological: what are the present capabilities of various verification techniques and what is their potential? The devices and methods currently employed by the two major nuclear powers and by international organizations to monitor the compliance of states with arms control or disarmament treaties are examined. The second issue is political: how do US and Soviet approaches compare, what are the roles of domestic and bureaucratic politics, and on what criteria can a workable standard of adequacy be based? In short, how much is enough? Although the study concludes that a number of significant arms control measures can already be adequately verified, modern weapons are becoming more mobile and it is becoming easier to conceal them. There is a danger that the ability to hide weapons will outstrip the ability to find them. Verification cannot promise to detect all violations; a workable standard of adequacy in verification must derive from the ability to detect militarily significant violations.

The basic idea of common security is not complex. It is that no country can obtain security, in the long run, simply by taking unilateral decisions about its own military forces. This is because security depends also on the actions and reactions of potential adversaries. Security has to be found in common with those adversaries. These ideas were considered in a SIPRI conference held in 1983. The conference had two main objectives. The first was to undertake a critical examination of the concept. The second was to consider the implications of the idea for policy in general, and for disarmament and arms control policy in particular. Originally published in 1985, this book contains revised versions of some of the papers presented at the conference.

Originally published in 1977, the purpose of this book was to analyse the relationship between the security of two states mutually undergoing strategic disarmament at the time and the need for safeguarding their security by means of a verification system. The book thus studies some of the basic problems in the disarmament debate, issues that had been the subject of great political controversy. Previous studies had been mainly descriptive or historical, lacking in objective political analysis, and tending to political bias, depending on the political school of the author. There was thus some justification for the statement made by some outstanding authorities in the field that 'to date, no systematic analysis has been attempted to determine what disarmament measures would optimally require of verification methods...' Our ambition is to respond to this criticism, at least so far as the strategic context of disarmament is concerned. Chapter 1 introduces us to the enormous range of repercussions caused by a disarmament agreement. Chapter 2 examines the concept of verification, analysing the meaning of the term, presenting various definitions of what verification is and attempting to systematize the concept. It has been noted on many occasions that the verification set up in a disarmament treaty is only one of a number of factors working towards compliance with a treaty. In fact the role of verification in presenting the treaty, and therefore the security of its participants, is to a large extent limited. However, without many other conditions being satisfied verification on its own can do little to preserve the treaty regime. Chapter 3 discusses these conditions. Chapter 4 gives a brief analysis of the concept of national interests in general, and the concept of national security in particular. Among all the elements of 'security', it is military security that plays by far the largest role. Because of this. Chapter 5 considers a specific case of strategic military security, in which security, defined as stable strategic deterrence between two states, is analysed. Finally, Chapter 6 analyses the question of what happens to security based on strategic deterrence when states enter into the disarmament process. More specifically, the role of verification in preserving security in such circumstances is analysed, thereby answering the main problem of the book. The supporting data for Chapter 6 is given in the Appendix.

To constrain nuclear proliferation, one must, in addition to designing a proliferation-resistant nuclear fuel cycle, identify a set of long-term arms limitation and security policies for the major states. These policies should be capable of satisfying various security and political objectives of non-nuclear weapon states, thereby minimizing their incentives to acquire independent nuclear weapon capabilities, and thus collectively minimizing future nuclear proliferation. Originally published in 1979, this book attempts to identify such a comprehensive arms limitation and security regime. It reviews negotiations concerning the NPT through the end of the Review Conference of the NPT in mid-1975 and the subsequent strategic debate concerning nuclear proliferation.

First published in 1980, the original blurb read: In August – September 1980 the second Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will take place in Geneva. As this Treaty is the most important barrier to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the results of the Conference will obviously have major effects in the field of arms control and disarmament. The implications of the recent International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE) are that the technological capabilities of many countries are such that there is no technical solution to the problem of the spread of nuclear weapons to countries that do not now have them. Thus, it appears that if there is a solution at all, it must be political in nature. A possible element in such a political solution is the internationalization of the sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle; that is, those parts that have the potential of producing fissile materials to make nuclear weapons. Although the intricacies of a system of internationalization are still unresolved, the concept, if realized, would provide another powerful political barrier to nuclear weapon proliferation – a reinforcement for the aims of the NPT itself. Against this background, and as a follow-up to its first symposium and the resultant book, Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapon Proliferation, SIPRI convened a second international group of experts to continue its discussions of issues pertinent to the forthcoming NPT Review Conference. The meeting took place at SIPRI in Stockholm, 31 October – 2 November 1979, when the feasibility of internationalizing the nuclear fuel cycle was examined. SIPRI’s views on this complex approach are expressed in Part 1 of this book - Internationalization to Prevent the Spread of Nuclear Weapons. Part 2 contains the papers that were presented at the symposium.

In the 1970s tactical nuclear warfare was a topical issue. The introduction of the new generation of tactical nuclear weapons into Europe could have had disastrous consequences. These new weapons had already been developed by nuclear-weapon laboratories and pressures were growing for their deployment. On first sight, smaller and more accurate nuclear weapons may seem more humane and militarily preferable to the relatively high-yield tactical nuclear weapons currently deployed. But some of these new types of weapons would blur the distinction between nuclear and conventional weapons and their use would make escalation to strategic nuclear war extremely likely. Indeed, the argument for these new weapons is that their use in wartime is more credible (and therefore 'acceptable') than current types of tactical nuclear weapons. This perception could easily lead to the exceedingly dangerous idea that some types of tactical nuclear war were 'winnable'. The fact has to be faced that any use of nuclear weapons is almost certain to escalate until all available weapons are used. To believe otherwise is to believe that one side will surrender before it has used all the weapons in its arsenal. History shows that this is most unlikely to happen. Because of its importance, SIPRI organized a meeting to discuss the whole question. Originally published in 1978, this book is the outcome of that meeting.

In mid-1980 a second conference for the review of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) would take place in Geneva. Given the importance of preventing, or at least slowing down, nuclear weapon proliferation, this conference would be a crucial event in the field of arms control and disarmament. For many countries the technical and economic barriers to proliferation had disappeared, and the only remaining barriers were political. In an attempt to contribute to the discussions at the NPT Review Conference, SIPRI assembled a group of experts from a number of countries to discuss the technical aspects of the control of fissionable materials in non-military applications. The meeting took place in Stockholm, 12-16 October 1978. Originally published in 1979, this book on nuclear energy and nuclear weapon proliferation contains the papers presented at the symposium and reflects the discussions at the meeting.

Originally published in 1982, this is the most comprehensive handbook on arms control ever published. It contains an analysis of the bilateral and multilateral agreements reached since World War II. An assessment is made of the extent to which each agreement has affected the arms race, reduced the likelihood of war or otherwise contributed to the overall goal of disarmament. Ongoing arms control negotiations are also analyzed. The complex problem of verification of compliance with arms control obligations is critically examined, and the shortcomings of the existing arrangements are pointed out. The critique is searching, objective and free of the usual biases of official government reports. The analysis of the arms control agreements is preceded by an historical overview, beginning with the Hague Peace Conferences, held at the turn of this century, through the League of Nations' attempts to bring about a universal reduction of armaments, to the activities of the United Nations in the field of arms regulation and general disarmament. The present arms control negotiating machinery is described. The texts of the relevant documents are reproduced for handy reference and the status of the implementation of the most important multilateral arms control agreements is presented in tabular form. Tables and figures facilitate the reading.

In the early 1980s there had been an upsurge of public concern over the nuclear threat to Europe. Already saturated with nuclear weapons, Europe faced controversial new deployments and there was alarm over military strategies for nuclear war in the region. It is in this context that the idea of nuclear weapon-free zones had captured the popular imagination and became a political issue in Europe. Not only would such zones build confidence and raise the nuclear threshold, but they would be first steps towards a more comprehensive elimination of nuclear weapons. Originally published in 1983 Nuclear Disengagement in Europe probes the question of nuclear weapon-free zones in the region. Pugwash and SIPRI arranged a meeting at which an international team of lawyers, scientists, politicians and military experts gave background information and provided an appraisal of problems regarding the zone initiatives as well as benefits that would accrue. Possible elements in a European zone arrangement were elaborated on and procedures towards the establishment of such a zone were suggested.

For the third year running, this book, originally published in 1984, provided those actively concerned with the dangers of war at the time, with well-researched and up-to-date information on military developments of every kind. Based on material published in the SIPRI Yearbook 1984, this book contains the essential data on nuclear issues, on military expenditure and the arms trade, and examines the breakdown of the arms control talks in 1983.

The debate on no-first-use of nuclear weapons has been conducted on a number of fronts. First use of nuclear weapons has come under challenge from many different directions: from church synods, from international lawyers, in debates at the United Nations, and from strategic thinkers. Originally published in 1984, this book takes stock for and against no-first-use and examines the political, military and arms control implications of such a commitment.