When government officials consider how the United States might intervene in crisis situations throughout the world, the likelihood of combat and the probable magnitude of U.S. casualties invariably dominate the deliberations. This is a reflection of what is now an article of faith in political circles: that the American public will no longer accept casualties in U.S. military operations and that casualties inexorably lead to irresistible calls for the withdrawal of U.S. forces. However, this thinking is not confined to political decision makers. The Department of Defense (DOD) has institutionalized the political imperative of casualty minimization in various doctrinal publications. More significantly, the desire to minimize U.S. military casualties has achieved an unprecedented significance in the formulation of military strategy in recent conflicts. These trends appear to be gaining momentum, especially within the United States Air Force. However, America's casualty sensitivity is misunderstood. The conventional wisdom that the American public will not tolerate casualties is inaccurate. America's support of military operations involving casualties is dependent on several factors, some more critical than casualties. My research indicates that the public will support operations when the interests at stake seem commensurate with the costs. Additional factors which influence public support are political consensus, actual progress of the conflict, and changing expectations.

The United States military of the year 2025 will need to deal with a widevariety of threats in diverse parts of the world. It will be faced withbudgetary restraints that will dictate system trades favoring those militaryelements that offer utility over a wide spectrum of conflict and add to theability to project power over long distances. The United States military of the year 2025 will also exist in a social and political environment that willdictate the need to minimize United States personnel losses and enemy collateral damage.An opportunity exists to exploit planned advances in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and the development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to address future military needs. Through all-source, coordinated intelligence fusion, it will be possible to supply the war fighter with all-weather, day or night, near-perfect battlespace awareness. This information will be of precision targeting quality and takes advantage of multiple sources to create a multidimensional view of potential targets. Early in the twenty-first century, reconnaissance UAVs will mature to the extent that reliable, long-endurance, high-altitude flight will be routine, and multiple, secure command and control communications links to them will have been developed.