Behind every financial crisis lurks a "political bubble"--policy biases that foster market behaviors leading to financial instability. Rather than tilting against risky behavior, political bubbles--arising from a potent combination of beliefs, institutions, and interests--aid, abet, and amplify risk. Demonstrating how political bubbles helped create the real estate-generated financial bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, this book argues that similar government oversights in the aftermath of the crisis undermined Washington's response to the "popped" financial bubble, and shows how such patterns have occurred repeatedly throughout US history. The authors show that just as financial bubbles are an unfortunate mix of mistaken beliefs, market imperfections, and greed, political bubbles are the product of rigid ideologies, unresponsive and ineffective government institutions, and special interests. Financial market innovations--including adjustable-rate mortgages, mortgage-backed securities, and credit default swaps--become subject to legislated leniency and regulatory failure, increasing hazardous practices. The authors shed important light on the politics that blinds regulators to the economic weaknesses that create the conditions for economic bubbles and recommend simple, focused rules that should help avoid such crises in the future. The first full accounting of how politics produces financial ruptures, Political Bubbles offers timely lessons that all sectors would do well to heed.

During the Great Depression, young radicals centered in New York City developed a vision of and for America, molded by their understanding of recent historical events, in particular the Great War and the global economic collapse, as well as by the events unfolding both at home and abroad. They worked to make their vision of a free, equal, democratic society based on peaceful coexistence a reality. Their attempts were ultimately unsuccessful but their voices were heard on a number of important issues, including free speech, racial justice, and peace. A major contribution to the historiography of the era of the Great Depression, Fighting Authoritarianism provides a new and important examination of U.S. youth activism of the 1930s, including the limits of the New Deal and how youth activists continually pushed FDR, Eleanor Roosevelt, and other New Dealers to do more to address economic distress, more inclusionary politics, and social inequality. In this study, author Britt Haas questions the interventionist versus isolationist paradigm in that young people sought to focus on both domestic and international affairs. Haas also explores the era not as a precursor to WWII, but as a moment of hope when the prospect of institutionalizing progress in freedom, equality, and democracy seemed possible. Fighting Authoritarianism corrects misconceptions about these young activists' vision for their country, heavily influenced by the American Dream they had been brought up to revere: they wanted a truly free, truly democratic, and truly equal society. That meant embracing radical ideologies, especially socialism and communism, which were widely discussed, debated, and promoted on New York City college campuses. They believed that in embracing these ideologies, they were not turning their backs on American values. Instead, they believed that such ideologies were the only way to make America live up to its promises. This study also outlines the careers of Molly Yard, Joseph Lash, and James Wechsler, how they retracted (and for Yard and Lash, reclaimed) their radical past, and how New York continued to hold a prominent platform in their careers. Lash and Wechsler both worked for the New York Post, the latter as editor until 1980. Examining the Depression decade from the perspective of young activists highlights the promise of America as young people understood it: a historic moment when anything seemed possible.

How do economists reconcile their expertise with their failures to predict and manage the 2008 financial crisis? This book goes a long way toward an answer by using systems theory to reveal the complex interdependence of factors and forces behind the crisis. In her fully integrated view of the economy, how it works, and how the economic crisis burst, Karen Higgins combines human psychology, cultural values, and belief formation with descriptions of the ways banks and markets succeed and fail. In each chapter she introduces themes from financial crisis literature and brings a systems-theory treatment of them. Her methodology and visual presentations both develop the tools of systems theory and apply these tools to the financial crisis. Not just another volume about the crisis, this book challenges the status quo through its unique multidisciplinary approach.
Presents a broad global view of international economic health and international corporate healthDescribes how policies, regulations, and trends dating to the 1950s influenced the crisisAssumes readers possess a general familiarity of economics and finance

Today's top financial professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and puts everyone at risk. In "Plight of the Fortune Tellers," Riccardo Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning. Presenting a financial model that uses probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory, Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about risk management. He offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution: managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty.

"Plight of the Fortune Tellers" is a must-read for anyone concerned about how today's financial markets are run. In a new preface, Rebonato explains how the ideas presented in this book fit into the context of the global financial crisis that followed its original publication. He argues that risk managers are still stuck in a probabilistic rut, and need to engage with the structural causes of real events.

Selected as a Financial Times Best Book of 2013
Governments today in both Europe and the United States have succeeded in casting government spending as reckless wastefulness that has made the economy worse. In contrast, they have advanced a policy of draconian budget cuts--austerity--to solve the financial crisis. We are told that we have all lived beyond our means and now need to tighten our belts. This view conveniently forgets where all that debt came from. Not from an orgy of government spending, but as the direct result of bailing out, recapitalizing, and adding liquidity to the broken banking system. Through these actions private debt was rechristened as government debt while those responsible for generating it walked away scot free, placing the blame on the state, and the burden on the taxpayer.
That burden now takes the form of a global turn to austerity, the policy of reducing domestic wages and prices to restore competitiveness and balance the budget. The problem, according to political economist Mark Blyth, is that austerity is a very dangerous idea. First of all, it doesn't work. As the past four years and countless historical examples from the last 100 years show, while it makes sense for any one state to try and cut its way to growth, it simply cannot work when all states try it simultaneously: all we do is shrink the economy. In the worst case, austerity policies worsened the Great Depression and created the conditions for seizures of power by the forces responsible for the Second World War: the Nazis and the Japanese military establishment. As Blyth amply demonstrates, the arguments for austerity are tenuous and the evidence thin. Rather than expanding growth and opportunity, the repeated revival of this dead economic idea has almost always led to low growth along with increases in wealth and income inequality. Austerity demolishes the conventional wisdom, marshaling an army of facts to demand that we austerity for what it is, and what it costs us.

Alternative Spaces/Transformative Places addresses the rise of unruly spaces in society, as well as communicative strategies that citizens and activists may use to democratize them. With the widespread use of austerity measures by governments and cities, unruly spaces are an increasing fixture in our modern world. Cities such as Flint and Detroit in Michigan, Berlin in Germany, and even regions of rural America, have all been damaged by the neoliberal policies that have left cityscapes and physical environments altered and unrecognizable. We now understand that unruliness has become a constant in contemporary globalized society. As such austerity has degraded infrastructure, depleted local economies, and poisoned neighborhoods, we feel citizens must be empowered to reclaim such unruly spaces themselves. The book explores different strategies for the democratization of such spaces in urban environments, and the potential and problems of each. Such strategies can create alternative perceptions and alter pathways through those spaces-even connect communities hidden from one another. Students and scholars of urban communication and community activism, as well as human geography, will find the concepts and strategies explored in this book useful. The discussions related to austerity measures provide context for many contemporary neighborhoods and communities that have come to be neglected, while the chapters concerning unruly spaces provide explanations for the difficulty with such neglected or degraded environments. Finally, the illustration of different communicative strategies for the democratization of unruly spaces will demonstrate the possibilities for empowerment within communities that face such problems.

This book examines the main causes of financial instability and highlights that, with the exception of wars and pandemics, the financial system is the source of the crisis, not just a means of spreading it, as most mainstream experts believe. Based on the following findings, the innovative sections of this book provide academics and policymakers with important and practical knowledge: because negative shifts in the financial system precede recessions, financial indicators can predict the onset of a crisis much earlier than real variables; the proposed recession forecasting model can predict the emergence of the crisis a month in advance. When the economy's sensitivity to the financial system is reduced, there will be only modest negative economic growth and no true recessions.

Offering a fresh take on a crucial phase of European history, this book explores the years between the 1980s and 1990s when the European Union took shape. Whilst contributing to existing literature on the Maastricht Treaty and European integration at the end of the twentieth century, the book also brings those debates into the twenty-first century and makes connections with longer-term issues. The transformation of the European political climate in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, and the watershed Brexit vote in 2016, has made it all the more urgent to reconsider the way scholars and opinion-makers have looked at European integration in the past. Drawing from recently released archival documents, the authors analyse European cooperation as part of the broader international history in which it unfolded, taking into account the changes in the Cold War order and the advance of a new phase of globalisation. Comparing and contrasting the debates, objectives and achievements of the 1980s and 1990s with the current political landscape of the European Union, this book proposes a novel interpretation of the choices that were made during the Maastricht years, and of their longer-term consequences.

What effects will the current economic crisis have on the long-term development of our societies? What does the future hold in store when we emerge from the crisis? These two questions lie at the heart of this important new book by the leading French sociologist Alain Touraine. In an era dominated by the global economy and the triumph of individualism, our society has broken away from the old model of integration in place since the industrial revolution. We no longer see ourselves as players in an economic system around which every aspect of society is ordered but rather as individuals with our own rights, capable of creating our own lives in a world in which cultural values prevail. The financial crisis and the growing autonomy of speculative and financial imperatives have exacerbated the rift between the economy and society and could push this long-term tendency in either of two directions. On the one hand, individuals who find themselves unemployed, impoverished and stripped of their savings may feel increasingly excluded and incapable of reacting politically, which would explain the silence of many victims of the crisis. On the other hand, individuals could also find themselves transformed into social actors who are defined increasingly in moral and universal terms, in which case the crisis could help to precipitate a long-term cultural evolution. We are facing a future as yet undecided, a future hovering between catastrophe and radical reform. This book explores the factors that could tip the balance.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic - at the interlocking levels of politics, economy, and society - have been different across regions, states, and societies. In the case of the Middle East and North Africa, which was already in the throes of intense tumult following the onset of the 2011 Arab Spring, COVID's blows have on the one hand followed the trajectory of some global patterns, while at the same time playing out in regionally specific ways. Based on empirical country-level analysis, this volume brings together an international team of contributors seeking to untangle how COVID-19 unfolds across the MENA. The analyses are framed through a contextual adaptation of Ulrich Beck's famous concept of "risk society" that pinpointed the negative consequences of modernity and its unbridled capitalism. The book traces how this has come home in full force in the COVID-19 pandemic. The editors, Larbi Sadiki and Layla Saleh, use the term "Arab risk society". They highlight short-term and long-term repercussions across the MENA. These include socio-economic inequality, a revitalized state of authoritarianism challenged by relentless democratic struggles. But the analyses are attuned to problem-solving research. The "ethnographies of the pandemic" included in this book investigate transformations and coping mechanisms within each country case study. They provide an ethically-informed research praxis that can respond to the manifold crises crashing down upon MENA polities and societies

Few countries experienced the period of turbulence surrounding the global financial crisis as intensely as Greece. The country topped the global news agenda as images of mass protests in Athens jostled for space with reports of torturous negotiations between political leaders struggling to agree support packages. Dramatic headlines proclaimed not only Greek bankruptcy and a possible exit from the euro, but the collapse of the single currency itself. This book offers a comprehensive and authoritative account of the lengthy crisis that beset Greece and the wider Eurozone. Written for the general reader, it explores the passage of events from different perspectives as it probes the story behind the headlines to reveal the full complexity of the crisis. Were its causes to be found in the prevailing international financial environment or in the economic and political system which evolved in Greece since the early 1970s? Did the choices made by both domestic and international actors such as the IMF and the EU exacerbate the crisis? Most importantly, what has been the impact of the crisis on the daily lives of the country's inhabitants?

"Of all the economic bubbles that have been pricked," the editors of The Economist recently observed, "few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself." Indeed, the financial crisis that crested in 2008 destroyed the credibility of the economic thinking that had guided policymakers for a generation. But what will take its place? In How the Economy Works, one of our leading economists provides a jargon-free exploration of the current crisis, offering a powerful argument for how economics must change to get us out of it. Roger E. A. Farmer traces the swings between classical and Keynesian economics since the early twentieth century, gracefully explaining the elements of both theories. During the Great Depression, Keynes challenged the longstanding idea that an economy was a self-correcting mechanism; but his school gave way to a resurgence of classical economics in the 1970s--a rise that ended with the current crisis. Rather than simply allowing the pendulum to swing back, Farmer writes, we must synthesize the two. From classical economics, he takes the idea that a sound theory must explain how individuals behave--how our collective choices shape the economy. From Keynesian economics, he adopts the principle that markets do not always work well, that capitalism needs some guidance. The goal, he writes, is to correct the excesses of a free-market economy without stifling entrepreneurship and instituting central planning. Recent events have shown that we cannot afford to treat economics as an ivory-tower abstraction. It has a direct impact on our lives by guiding regulators and policymakers as they make decisions with far-reaching practical consequences. Written in clear, accessible language, How the Economy Works makes an argument that no one should ignore.

In the last thirty-five years, politicians of all parties in government ceded power over fundamental sectors of our economy to a new oligarchy of corporations. Government has become the servant, not the master, of corporate interests. Andrew Fisher describes this as a failed political experiment; an analysis that makes this book very different. It is not about blaming the bankers, or even high powered financiers - though much blame and opprobrium has rightly been apportioned to them. Nor is it a partisan attack on the failures of Conservative or Labour governments. Instead, this is a book about the much larger political crisis that still threatens our living standards - and how we can resolve it.

In far too many cases, recommendations of forensic reports on previous pandemics were ignored. Substantial weaknesses in the preparation by public health authorities and governments increased the health and economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic relative to what they would have been if pre-existing recommendations had been followed and a wider set of plans had been put into place. We discuss parallels between the lack of preparation of financial system regulators prior to the global financial crisis and the lack of preparation by public health authorities and governments prior to COVID-19. These parallels relate to: required stocks (of capital or equipment), data collection and sharing, lending facilities, stress testing and war games, early warning indicators and systems, contagion from abroad, operational risks, a system-wide approach (including effects on the real economy), models incorporating the heterogeneity of individuals, and effects on less-regulated parts of the system. The recent COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated that, apart from the direct economic consequences from illness and death from the virus, the main costs have been due to the varying degrees of preventative measures taken by the public, firms, and governments that directly impacted health, as well as social, economic, and financial activity. We make recommendations for carrying out post mortems on the COVID-19 experience, planning for future pandemics, and establishing transparent and accountable governance systems. We then propose the use of regular, combined health, economic, and financial stress tests and exercises/war games in preparing for future pandemics and other major environmental shocks.

This book takes stock of and analyzes the events during the Asian financial crisis (AFC) and subsequent developments, including the global financial crisis (GFC), that led to the development of the ASEAN+3 regional financial cooperation framework and the establishment of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office. The book is the first of its kind to compile comprehensive recollections of the major players during the AFC and the GFC, including country-level narratives on the causes and developments of the crises, and measures to overcome them. The book not only presents an analytical and deeper examination of country experiences during both crises, but also assesses the two crises and covers the lessons learnt from the crises, particularly with a focus on the development of regional financial cooperation. The book concludes with regional financial cooperation in retrospect, aiming to catalyze further discussions on the direction of the region's financial cooperation.

'If you are curious about what the financial Goetterdammerung might look like you've certainly come to the right place' Forbes Financial expert, investment advisor and New York Times bestselling author James Rickards reveals how the global elite are darkly concealing a coming catastrophe from investors, whilst protecting themselves from the fallout. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you want to plan for the risks ahead, you will need Rickards's cutting-edge synthesis of behavioural economics, history, and complexity theory. It's a guidebook to thinking smarter, acting faster and living with the comfort ing knowledge that your wealth is secure.

'Robert Peston's compelling account of global financial meltdown is a must-read.' Observer What can we learn from the 2008 recession? ITV's political editor explains the global economic mess and how to escape it - in his characteristically straightforward way. 'How do we fix this mess? I don't know. But don't stop reading now. Perhaps if we have a clearer understanding of what went wrong, we'll have a better idea of what needs to be done. This book is a map of what needs to be fixed.' The record-breaking unbroken growth between 1992 and 2008 wasn't the economic miracle that it seemed. It was based on a number of dangerous illusions - most notably that it didn't matter that the UK and US year after year consumed more than they earned. But we couldn't go on increasing our indebtedness forever. The financial crash of 2007/8 and the subsequent economic slump in much of the west was the moment when we realised we had borrowed more than we could afford to repay. So who got it wrong? Bankers, investors and regulators? And were they greedy, stupid or asleep? What was the role of government? And what part did we, as consumers, play in all this? How do we get through this difficult period of transition to a more sustainable economy, one based on investment and exports, rather than on borrowing and consumption? With the same probing lucidity he brought to Who Runs Britain? and WTF?, Robert Peston takes us step-by-step towards a common sense way to fix this mess.

The reputation of the financial industry could hardly be worse than it is today in the painful aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. "New York Times" best-selling economist Robert Shiller is no apologist for the sins of finance--he is probably the only person to have predicted both the stock market bubble of 2000 and the real estate bubble that led up to the subprime mortgage meltdown. But in this important and timely book, Shiller argues that, rather than condemning finance, we need to reclaim it for the common good. He makes a powerful case for recognizing that finance, far from being a parasite on society, is one of the most powerful tools we have for solving our common problems and increasing the general well-being. We need more financial innovation--not less--and finance should play a larger role in helping society achieve its goals.

Challenging the public and its leaders to rethink finance and its role in society, Shiller argues that finance should be defined not merely as the manipulation of money or the management of risk but as the stewardship of society's assets. He explains how people in financial careers--from CEO, investment manager, and banker to insurer, lawyer, and regulator--can and do manage, protect, and increase these assets. He describes how finance has historically contributed to the good of society through inventions such as insurance, mortgages, savings accounts, and pensions, and argues that we need to envision new ways to rechannel financial creativity to benefit society as a whole.

Ultimately, Shiller shows how society can once again harness the power of finance for the greater good.

Debt, private and public, and in particular excessive debt, has been debated to be one of the root causes of economic crises. At the same time, economic crises are believed to lead to an increase of debt. This book, through a range of contributors, explores certain constituents of an economy and attempts to identify their contribution to debt (public and private), especially in times of crisis; namely, bonds, tariffs, social security and non-performing loans (NPLs). Furthermore, it captures the (implicit) impact of the demography on debt through tariffs and social security and investigates the effect of quantitative easing/purchase programs and as well as crises on debt. In addition, the (cost of the) reserve that a state may want to provision for, in order to secure its economy from defaulting within a certain time horizon, is also addressed and calculated. This calculation offers an alternative valuation, or pricing, of (excess) debt (default protection). This book aims to offer a comparative study of countries - especially those with a history of excessive debt - and intends to realize whether an economic crisis can genuinely deteriorate debt, or whether the debt unsustainability is preexisting to the crisis. It will be relevant to students and researchers interested in economic policy and growth.

In this age of uncertainty, there is the need for ideas that transcend the limitations of party political, or left/right thinking, in resolving the unprecedented problems of our time. Technological Civilisation is here presented as a focal point for a fresh perspective of both national and international issues. The tensions between America and China indicate the possibility of a new Cold War, and this would be disastrous for the planet in diverting attention away from the cooperation needed in attending to climate change and other threats to the environment. In the countries of the West, democracy as we know it is beginning to disintegrate. This is made evident through the collapse of voting figures and party memberships, as well as a spirit of disillusion. There are some topics which politicians are loathed to address, and in the sphere of the approaching environmental crisis, the population explosion is the most prominent. Leading scientists have clearly demonstrated, that even if all efforts are put towards reversing climate change through maximising renewable energy sources, unless population control is achieved on a sufficient level, all will be in vain. The population question is probably pushed ahead to a greater degree in this book than will be found elsewhere as a topic for public debate. In concentrating on Technological Civilisation, it is possible to discern the inter-connection of problems, and this leads to constructive proposals for the regeneration of democracy, the reform of the financial-industrial system, and the emergence of an upwardly mobile and free egalitarian society.

Global inequality has been a burning issue for years now. As the economies progress, it is expected that the benefits of growth will percolate to the lower sections of society. However, this percolation takes place in a discriminating manner. Inequality can be observed in terms of health, income, education, wealth, gender, availability of opportunities, and other socio-economic parameters. The governing authorities and international agencies have been taking various corrective measures to reduce the widening levels of inequality. However, certain external factors like the pandemic can wash away the efforts taken and deteriorate the progress made on the inequality levels in economies. Emerging Trends and Insights on Economic Inequality in the Wake of Global Crises discusses the impact of global disasters and crises on economic inequality. It provides an overview of the evolution of global inequality over the years, increasing different forms of inequalities amidst crises, the corrective measures taken by the national and international agencies, and the way forward for economies with worsening inequalities. Covering topics such as crisis management, digital agriculture, and economic welfare, this premier reference source is an essential resource for economists, business leaders and executives, government officials, students and educators of higher education, sociologists, researchers, and academicians.

From Donald Trump, to Brexit and the rise of nationalist populism across Europe, what role has the media played in shaping our current political moment? Following the news coverage of a decade-long crisis that includes the 2008 financial crash and the Great Recession, the UK deficit, the eurozone crisis, austerity and rising inequality, we see that coverage is suffering from an acute amnesia about the policies that caused the crisis in the first place. Rather than remembering its roots in the dynamics of 'free market' capitalism, the media remains devoted to a narrative of swollen public sectors, out-of-control immigration and benefits cheats. How has history been so quickly rewritten, and what does this mean for attempts to solve the economic problems? Going behind the coverage, to decode the workings of media power, Basu shows that without a rejection of neoliberal capitalism we'll be stuck in an infinite cycle of crisis.

This book assesses the current state of the Greek economy and detects its development and growth prospects up to 2030. The analysis begins with 19th century Greece, addressing the repeated defaults that led to the formation of a dependent state, and the failed modernizing attempts. Then the book addresses current geostrategic dimensions as well as the current structure of institutions and culture in Greece. The second part presents the evolution of sustainability, governance, and inclusivity, as well as the evolution of culture in Greek society and insights into the production prototype. The third part of the book looks forward to what lays ahead for Greece up to 2030. It presents the theoretical background for two scenarios: the normal scenario (business as usual, including the effects of the recent Covid-19 pandemic) and the optimal scenario (a pro-growth scenario including increases of Total Factor Productivity through structural reforms). In presenting these scenarios, the book discusses issues ranging from a comparative analysis between Greece and the Eurozone, the developments in output gap and potential output, public debt, competitiveness, basic macroeconomic variables, a detailed analysis on investments, and inclusive growth.