Providing a clear explanation of the fundamental theory of time series analysis and forecasting, this book couples theory with applications of two popular statistical packages--SAS and SPSS. The text examines moving average, exponential smoothing, Census X-11 deseasonalization, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, and autoregressive error models and has brief discussions of ARCH and GARCH models. The book features treatments of forecast improvement with regression and autoregression combination models and model and forecast evaluation, along with a sample size analysis for common time series models to attain adequate statistical power. To enhance the book's value as a teaching tool, the data sets and programs used in the book are made available on the Academic Press Web site. The careful linkage of the theoretical constructs with the practical considerations involved in utilizing the statistical packages makes it easy for the user to properly apply these techniques.
Key Features
* Describes principal approaches to time series analysis and forecasting
* Presents examples from public opinion research, policy analysis, political science, economics, and sociology
* Free Web site contains the data used in most chapters, facilitating learning
* Math level pitched to general social science usage
* Glossary makes the material accessible for readers at all levels

This is the fourteenth annual volume of the Index to International Public Opinion. It includes data from public opinion polls from more than 130 countries and geographical regions. All tables contain total sample results, and many also include analysis by various population sub-groups such as age, sex, level of education, etc. The survey questions deal with social, political, and economic issues of both contemporary and historical interest. The data are drawn from surveys that have been conducted by polling organizations of the highest scientific quality. The volume contains data from surveys conducted mainly during the period Spring 1991 through Spring 1992. Also, for trend analysis purposes, included are a number of time series tables covering a decade or longer. Starting with volume fourteen, the annual contains a new section, Changing Opinions: A 50-year Retrospective, which consists of opinion polling data gathered a half century ago in a number of countries; not surprisingly, many of the issues asked about then are still current today. As the richest ongoing reference source for public opinion data, this volume and its predecessor volumes are invaluable for scholars of social, political, and economic issues, for business leaders, journalists, and government officials.

This book presents the theory and practical applications of the Master equation approach, which provides a powerful general framework for model building in a variety of disciplines. The aim of the book is to not only highlight different mathematical solution methods, but also reveal their potential by means of practical examples. Part I of the book, which can be used as a toolbox, introduces selected statistical fundamentals and solution methods for the Master equation. In Part II and Part III, the Master equation approach is applied to important applications in the natural and social sciences. The case studies presented mainly hail from the social sciences, including urban and regional dynamics, population dynamics, dynamic decision theory, opinion formation and traffic dynamics; however, some applications from physics and chemistry are treated as well, underlining the interdisciplinary modelling potential of the Master equation approach. Drawing upon the author's extensive teaching and research experience and consulting work, the book offers a valuable guide for researchers, graduate students and professionals alike.

Statistical Design-Chemometrics is applicable to researchers and professionals who wish to perform experiments in chemometrics and carry out analysis of the data in the most efficient way possible. The language is clear, direct and oriented towards real applications. The book provides 106 exercises with answers to accompany the study of theoretical principles. Forty two cases studies with real data are presented showing designs and the complete statistical analyses for problems in the areas chromatography, electroanalytical and electrochemistry, calibration, polymers, gas adsorption, semiconductors, food technology, biotechnology, photochemistry, catalysis, detergents and ceramics. These studies serve as a guide that the reader can use to perform correct data analyses.
-Provides 42 case studies containing step-by-step descriptions of calculational procedures that can be applied to most real optimization problems
-Contains 106 theoretical exercises to test individual learning and to provide classroom exercises and material for written tests and exams
-Written in a language that facilitates learning for physical and biological scientists and engineers
-Takes a practical approach for those involved in industrial optimization problems

Research Methods: A Practical Guide for the Social Sciences is an essential resource for the social researcher. It offers a comprehensive introduction for first time researchers right through to thorough and practical advice for those undertaking more advanced work. The book draws on real life experiences from a wide variety of disciplines to show how theory translates into practice, and offers a rigorous analysis of why researchers choose the methods they use. Think about it boxes throughout the text offer questions and ideas to help the researcher to focus on core issues and practical considerations, whilst your research summaries present questions, activities and checklists to help the researcher to develop their ideas. The book is supported by a fantastic companion website that contains learning materials, interactive exercises, videos, questionnaires, datasets and much more. The website can be found at: www.pearsoned.co.uk/matthews Written to reflect the breadth of the social sciences, Research Methods is essential for anyone conducting research in sociology, health policy, social work, criminology, social policy, cultural studies, political studies, public policy and related fields.

Based on ethnographic research with asylum seekers living in a 'direct provision' centre in Ireland, and comprising participatory visual methods, this work offers a unique examination of the 'direct provision' system that analyses the tensions between exclusion and marginalization, and involvement and engagement with local communities. It gives voice to the perspectives of residents themselves through an analysis of photographic images and texts created by the participants of the project, providing fresh insight into the everyday experiences of living in these liminal zones between borders, and the various forms of attachment, engagement and belonging that they create. While the book's empirical focus is on the Irish context, the analysis sheds light on broader policies and experiences of exclusion and the increasing number of liminal spaces between and within borders in which people seeking protection wait. Situated at the intersection of social anthropology, human geography and participatory arts and visual culture, it will appeal to scholars and students focusing on migration and asylum, ethnicity and integration, as well as those with an interest in participatory and visual research methods.

The question of how cooperation and social order can evolve from a Hobbesian state of nature of a "war of all against all" has always been at the core of social scientific inquiry. Social dilemmas are the main analytical paradigm used by social scientists to explain competition, cooperation, and conflict in human groups. The formal analysis of social dilemmas allows for identifying the conditions under which cooperation evolves or unravels. This knowledge informs the design of institutions that promote cooperative behavior. Yet to gain practical relevance in policymaking and institutional design, predictions derived from the analysis of social dilemmas must be put to an empirical test. The collection of articles in this book gives an overview of state-of-the-art research on social dilemmas, institutions, and the evolution of cooperation. It covers theoretical contributions and offers a broad range of examples on how theoretical insights can be empirically verified and applied to cooperation problems in everyday life. By bringing together a group of distinguished scholars, the book fills an important gap in sociological scholarship and addresses some of the most interesting questions of human sociality.

This book explores the ontologies, epistemologies, methodologies, and methods that inform tourism qualitative research conducted either by Asian scholars or non-Asian scholars focusing on Asia. In addition to providing a platform for researchers to publish their qualitative journeys, it aims to encourage further Asian qualitative tourism research production. The book not only includes chapters from Asian scholars but also non-Asian tourism researchers with a focus on Asia, as their chapters are crucial to represent the multiplicity of realities constituting 'Asia'. It is of interest to the whole tourism academic community as it provides novel methodological insights from a non-Western perspective, which at the moment are often silenced by dominant (Western) voices.

"I think your work is a necessary and valuable exposure of this religious phenomenon and the appallingly cynical exploitation of the religious and cultural beliefs of the poor and the vulnerable."

Suzanne WiltonHuddersfield, UK

"The book is particularly apt at this period of Christianity in Nigeria because it

addresses the 'money syndrome' that has crept into Christianity in Nigeria and the faking of the call of God.... The book addresses the yearning of many Christians who are worried by this menace but may not know how to discuss it."

Reverend Kenneth NwaubaniAbia, Nigeria

"I am particularly impressed by the depth of research that has gone into this book. It will generate intellectual discourse, challenge our spiritual guardians and mentors and it may well put some of them on the defensive."

Hon. Kazeem AdioOsun, Nigeria

"This book provides an interesting insight into the plight of religion in Nigeria and into the facet of the human condition that allows for the exploitation of the faithful and vulnerable individuals."

Will ColbridgePenistone, UK

"Very few publications, if any, capture through the religious prism the mechanical nature of developing Nigerian society in the way that this publication does. ..."

Casmir OkoliLondon, UK

"The book will, I believe, open the door for many who are still in the dark regarding the subject matter."

Rev Fr Nicholas NwagwuNew York, USA

This book showcases a selection of arts-based research methods used in the empirical study of business, organisation and the humanities. Each chapter presents a discursive analysis and a detailed how-to guide for a range of methods including poetry, drawing, photography and social media, film, food, knitting, letter writing and dance. Consideration is given to a variety of steps in the research process, from research design and data collection to analysis and publication. Using Arts-based Research Methods is a unique resource for experienced researchers and students looking to broaden their palette of qualitative research methods.

Becoming Metric-Wise: A Bibliometric Guide for Researchers aims to inform researchers about metrics so that they become aware of the evaluative techniques being applied to their scientific output. Understanding these concepts will help them during their funding initiatives, and in hiring and tenure. The book not only describes what indicators do (or are designed to do, which is not always the same thing), but also gives precise mathematical formulae so that indicators can be properly understood and evaluated. Metrics have become a critical issue in science, with widespread international discussion taking place on the subject across scientific journals and organizations. As researchers should know the publication-citation context, the mathematical formulae of indicators being used by evaluating committees and their consequences, and how such indicators might be misused, this book provides an ideal tome on the topic.

This book discusses the question of whether legal interpretation is a scientific activity. The law's dependency on language, at least for the usual communication purposes, not only makes legal interpretation the main task performed by those whose work involves the law, but also an unavoidable step in the process of resolving a legal case. This task of decoding the words and sentences used by normative authorities while enacting norms, carried out in compliance with the principles and rules of the natural language adopted, is prone to all of the difficulties stemming from the uncertainty intrinsic to all linguistic conventions. In this context, seeking to determine whether legal interpretation can be scientific or, in other words, can comply with the requirements for scientific knowledge, becomes a central question. In fact, the coherent application of the law depends on a knowledge regarding the meaning of normative sentences that can be classified (at least) as being structured, systematically organized and tendentially objective. Accordingly, this book focuses on analyzing precisely these problems; its respective contributions offer a range of revealing perspectives on both the problems and their ramifications.

This book, comprised of entirely original research, collects data on the socioeconomic situation of China's 56 ethnic groups. Although the majority of China's population is of the Han nationality (which accounts for more than 90% of China's population), the non-Han ethnic groups have a population of more than 100 million. China has officially identified, except for other unknown ethnic groups and foreigners with Chinese citizenship, 55 ethnic minorities. In addition, ethnic minorities vary greatly in size. With a population of more than 15 million, the Zhuang are the largest ethnic minority, and the Lhoba, with a population of only about three thousand, the smallest. China's ethnic diversity has resulted in a special socioeconomic landscape for China itself. However, till presently, a complete socioeconomic picture of China's ethnic groups - especially of its smallest ethnic minorities - still remained unclear. How different have China's ethnic groups been in every sphere of daily life and economic development during China's fast transition period? In order to answer these questions, we have created a detailed and comparable set of data for each of China's ethnic groups. This book presents, in an easy-to-use format, a broad collection of social and economic indicators on China's 56 ethnic groups. This useful resource profiles the general social and economic situations for each of these ethnic groups. These indicators are compiled and estimated based on the regional and local data gathered from a variety of sources up to 2012.

This book makes valuable theoretical, empirical, and methodological contributions to the study of overseas doctoral students' cross-cultural adaptation. Focusing on Australia, one of the top three destinations for Chinese students, this book seeks to understand how Chinese doctoral students perceive their lived experience of adapting to the academic and research environment at Australian universities. The book presents an innovative data collection chiefly based on interviews. It probes into Chinese doctoral students' emic perception of their cross-cultural adaptation from a human development perspective and in three main phrases: how motivated and prepared they are for their overseas stay (planning), how they experience their adaptation as active agents (implementing), and how they evaluate their overseas doctoral journey after the fact (reflecting). Empirically speaking, its findings can help bolster the effectiveness of cross-cultural adaptation and that of the internationalisation of doctoral education. Methodologically speaking, it combines popular techniques and underused instruments such as graphics and maps to offer an in-depth portrait of the issue. Given its content, the book is primarily intended for researchers in cultural studies and practitioners in international education, or in a broader sense for anyone who has a keen interest in how individuals navigate the learning trajectory and construe meanings in unfamiliar academic and socio-cultural settings. Though the book focuses on Australia as a case study, its findings are equally applicable to other contexts.

This book explores social constructionism and the language of mental distress. Mental health research has traditionally been dominated by genetic and biomedical explanations that provide only partial explanations. However, process research that utilises qualitative methods has grown in popularity. Situated within this new strand of research, the authors examine and critically assess some of the different contributions that social constructionism has made to the study of mental distress and to how those diagnosed are conceptualized and labeled. This will be an invaluable introduction and source of practical strategies for academics, researchers and students as well as clinical practitioners, mental health professionals, and others working with mental health such as educationalists and social workers.

The authors consider the nature of explanatory models in the social sciences in order to suggest ways in which conceptual systems differ. They suggest that, in many cases, theorists, researchers and clinicians can utilize insights from rival models in building their own models, without sacrificing the integrity of their own work.

This, the seventeenth volume of the Index to International Public Opinion provides data from opinion surveys conducted in 69 countries. Approximately 97 countries and geographical areas are referenced in these studies. The data were contributed by 154 research firms. As has been the case with previous volumes, all tables contain total sample results and many include breakdowns by various population subgroups such as gender, political party affiliation, age, and level of formal education. As in the past, poll questions deal with a broad mix of social, political, and economic issues of both contemporary and historical interest. Volume 17 includes data from polls conducted for the most part during the period Spring 1994 through Spring 1995. In addition, for trend analysis purposes, included are a number of time series tables covering a decade or more. There is also a section entitled Changing Opinions: A 50-Year Retrospective. This part of the Index presents polling data gathered approximately a half century ago from a number of different countries. This volume and the overall series provides the most comprehensive source for public opinion data available. As such the volumes are of unusual importance for journalists, professional scholars, government officials, and business leaders.

This book explores how public opinion is used to design, monitor and evaluate government programmes in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Using information collected from the media and from international practitioners in the public opinion field, as well as interviews in each of the 4 countries, the author describes how views of public opinion and governance differ significantly between elites and the general public. Bennett argues that elites generally risk more by allowing the creation of new data, fearing that its analysis may become public and create communications and political problems of various kinds. The book finds evidence that recent conservative governments in several countries are changing their perspective on the use of public opinion, and that conventional public opinion studies are facing challenges from the availability of other kinds of information and new technologies. This book is a hugely valuable contribution to a hitherto little explored field and will appeal to academics and practitioners alike.

This revised edition presents the relevant aspects of transformational geometry, matrix algebra, and calculus to those who may be lacking the necessary mathematical foundations of applied multivariate analysis. It brings up-to-date many definitions of mathematical concepts and their operations. It also clearly defines the relevance of the exercises to concerns within the business community and the social and behavioral sciences. Readers gain a technical background for tackling applications-oriented multivariate texts and receive a geometric perspective for understanding multivariate methods."Mathematical Tools for Applied Multivariate Analysis, Revised Edition illustrates major concepts in matrix algebra, linear structures, and eigenstructures geometrically, numerically, and algebraically. The authors emphasize the applications of these techniques by discussing potential solutions to problems outlined early in the book. They also present small numerical examples of the various concepts.
Key Features
* Provides a technical base for tackling most applications-oriented multivariate texts
* Presents a geometric perspective for aiding ones intuitive grasp of multivariate methods
* Emphasizes technical terms current in the social and behavioral sciences, statistics, and mathematics
* Can be used either as a stand-alone text or a supplement to a multivariate statistics textbook
* Employs many pictures and diagrams to convey an intuitive perception of matrix algebra concepts
* Toy problems provide a step-by-step approach to each model and matrix algebra concept
* Provides solutions for all exercises

An exploration of evaluator role and identity. The areas addressed include: evaluation in an organizational world; evaluation as responsibility, conscience and conviction; the evaluator's role in the transformative context; hidden images of self; and evaluation in dystopian times.

This unique book comprehensively covers the evolving field of transversality, globalization and education, and presents creative, research-based thought experiments that seek to unravel the forces of globalization impacting education. Pursuing various approaches to and uses of transversality, with a focus on the ideas of Felix Guattari, it is the only book of its kind. Specifically, it examines the influence of Guattari at the forefront of educational research that addresses, enhances and sets free activist micro-perspectives, which can counter macro-global movements, such as capitalism and climate change. This book is a global education research text that includes perspectives from four continents, providing a balanced and significant work on globalization in education.

This book presents a broad range of statistical techniques to address emerging needs in the field of repeated measures. It also provides a comprehensive overview of extensions of generalized linear models for the bivariate exponential family of distributions, which represent a new development in analysing repeated measures data. The demand for statistical models for correlated outcomes has grown rapidly recently, mainly due to presence of two types of underlying associations: associations between outcomes, and associations between explanatory variables and outcomes. The book systematically addresses key problems arising in the modelling of repeated measures data, bearing in mind those factors that play a major role in estimating the underlying relationships between covariates and outcome variables for correlated outcome data. In addition, it presents new approaches to addressing current challenges in the field of repeated measures and models based on conditional and joint probabilities. Markov models of first and higher orders are used for conditional models in addition to conditional probabilities as a function of covariates. Similarly, joint models are developed using both marginal-conditional probabilities as well as joint probabilities as a function of covariates. In addition to generalized linear models for bivariate outcomes, it highlights extended semi-parametric models for continuous failure time data and their applications in order to include models for a broader range of outcome variables that researchers encounter in various fields. The book further discusses the problem of analysing repeated measures data for failure time in the competing risk framework, which is now taking on an increasingly important role in the field of survival analysis, reliability and actuarial science. Details on how to perform the analyses are included in each chapter and supplemented with newly developed R packages and functions along with SAS codes and macro/IML. It is a valuable resource for researchers, graduate students and other users of statistical techniques for analysing repeated measures data.