Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.

A comparison of British and German industries' reaction to the opportunities and threats offered by the Single European Market (SEM) is presented here. The book outlines the effect that the SEM was expected to have on the two countries and contrasts this with actual progress, based on published data and a detailed study of four industries: retailing, pharmaceuticals, insurance and machine tools. It shows that while indeed the single European market has had an impact, many measures have had a far weaker effect than expected. The existence of other barriers not tackled by the SEM programme - weakened measures, poor implementation, global business trends and the recent recession - helped to reduce the impact of the SEM. Nevertheless it stands out as one of the most striking influences on British and German industries for many years. Germany, with its geographical advantage, longer-term approach and stronger manufacturing, seems the better placed to benefit overall. But the less regulated and, in some respects, more flexible UK economy may have competitive advantages as the pressures increase. It is no accident that it has been chosen so frequently as the best site within the EC for investment by firms from non-EC countries.

The measurement of household welfare is one of the most compelling yet demanding areas in economics. To place the analysis of inequality and poverty within an economic framework where individuals are making decisions about current and lifetime incomes and expenditures is a difficult task, made all the more challenging by the complexity of the decision-making process in which households are involved and the variety of constraints they face. This 1994 book examines the conceptual and practical difficulties of making inferences from observed behaviour. It addresses the problems of making comparisons across a range of very different households and discusses how data for such comparisons should be collected. The contributions, from experts from Europe, North America and Australia, have the unifying theme that there is a strong relationship between theoretical concepts from microeconomics and the appropriate use of micro data in evaluating household welfare.

This state-of-the-art volume presents comparative, empirical research on a topic that has long preoccupied scholars, politicians, and everyday citizens: economic inequality. While income and wealth inequality across all populations is the primary focus, the contributions to this book pay special attention to the middle class, a segment often not addressed in inequality literature. Written by leading scholars in the field of economic inequality, all 17 chapters draw on microdata from the databases of LIS, an esteemed cross-national data center based in Luxembourg. Using LIS data to structure a comparative approach, the contributors paint a complex portrait of inequality across affluent countries at the beginning of the 21st century. The volume also trail-blazes new research into inequality in countries newly entering the LIS databases, including Japan, Iceland, India, and South Africa.

Thorstein Veblen and Hyman Minsky are seminal thinkers who place great importance on the interaction between processes that link finance and financial markets with economic and social evolution. This book makes a contribution to the recontextualisation of the habitual, non-evolutionary and laissez-faire macroeconomic theory and policy, thus exposing the relevant contribution of the macro-theories of Veblen and Minsky. The book starts with an elucidation of Veblen's cultural theory of insufficient private demand, waste and financial fragility and instability. It shows how speculative and parasitic leverage engenders solvency illusions and risk, pecuniary efficiency, low quality liability structures and socially destructive boom-bust cycles. Minsky's creative destruction liquidity processes and coordination failures of cash flow escalate the aforementioned path-dependent developments and explosive dynamics of capitalist economies. The main themes of the book are the cultural, evolutionary and holistic vision of macroeconomics, the evolving habits of mind, routines and financial institutions, the speculative, manipulated and unstable financial markets, as well as the financial macroeconomic destabilizing effects of pecuniary and parasitic consumption and investment. This book will be of great interest to researchers, intellectuals and students pursuing economics and finance.

The industrialised world has witnessed a dramatic increase in the volume of international capital movements in the forms of borrowing and lending, bond transactions and foreign direct investment. At the same time, many non-OECD countries have embarked on extensive programmes of capital market liberalisation. This volume examines the implications of this increased international capital mobility for both industrialised and developing countries. The contributors look at the effect of developments on economic fluctuations, and on fiscal and monetary policies under alternative exchange rate regimes. They also address the erosion of capital taxation as a source of government revenue, the contribution of mobile capital to development with 'endogenous growth', the role of mobile capital in reducing unemployment where there are large-scale population flows, and the convergence of national growth rates.

This book examines the linkages between exchange rates and India's merchandise trade since the 1990s. It looks at India's trade in the post-liberalisation period through its two main components: commodities and trading partners, and provides a bird's eye view through aggregate analyses accompanied by a historical narrative of the evolution of trade and exchange rate dynamics. Presenting a comprehensive analysis of bilateral and product-specific trade, the book explores the impact of exchange rate on labour intensive sectors and charts out major development. It also offers compelling evidence to suggest that if some commodities are identified as integral to India's export plans, then the impact of exchange rate must be weighed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prior to a market intervention. This timely volume will be of interest to scholars and researchers of economics, business and finance, development studies, trade, business, and industry as well as practitioners, think-tanks, and policy makers.

Contemporary general equilibrium theory is characteristically short-run, separated from monetary aspects of the economy, and as such does not deal with long-run problems such as capital accumulation, innovation, and the historical movement of the economy. These phenomena are discussed by growth theory, which assumes a given or shifting production function, and in turn cannot therefore deal with the fundamental problem of growth, namely how the production function is derived. Thus traditional theories have a common weakness in that they divorce real economic growth from the activities of the financial sector. This book provides a much-needed synthesis of growth theory and monetary theory. Professor Morishima draws on the work of Schumpeter, Keynes and the pre-war neoclassical economists to formulate a capital-theoretic general equilibrium theory.

The evolution of private saving and its interaction with government fiscal policy play an important and complex role in the development of the national economy. To gain insight into this process, it is imperative that we improve our understanding of the savings behaviour of individual households and of the ways in which they aggregate over the entire population to produce national saving. Italy provides an ideal laboratory in which to assess the impact of government and private transfer, imperfections in the capital markets, productivity growth and shifting demographic patterns on the saving behavior of individual households and on their aggregation into total private saving. The book draws on the Italian experience and data, and offers findings on many aspects of the process of saving determination.

Financial markets are not predictable, let alone controllable. The one thing traders and investors can control is their trading tactics, where some can have higher probability of profitability than others. This book explains, by using phase analysis, why some of the indicators, and trading tactics would work better than others, and why some indicators and trading tactics would perform poorly. Emphasis is placed on Awesome Oscillator and Accelerator Oscillator, which are based on Simple Moving Average, a popular tool employed by traders. They are then compared to Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) and MACD Histogram (MACDH), which are based on exponential moving averages. By varying the parameters of MACD and MACDH, one can change the phase or time delay, and possibly make a larger profit. This book is for practitioners, and includes all MATLAB programs used in the book.

Volumes 45a and 45b of Advances in Econometrics honor Professor Joon Y. Park, who has made numerous and substantive contributions to the field of econometrics over a career spanning four decades since the 1980s and counting. This second volume, Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, focuses on econometric applications related, some closely and some very loosely, to Professor Park’s more recent work before concluding with a retrospective summarizing four decades of Advances in Econometrics.

This fifth volume in the International Papers in Political Economy (IPPE) series focuses on the theme of path dependency and macroeconomics in terms of both theory and applications. The volume examines how path dependency is linked with notions of fundamental uncertainty, non-ergodicity and hysteresis.

The Economics and Politics of European Integration offers a comprehensive history of European integration, from the conceptualization of a United States of Europe, to the present day. The special role of the United States in this process of integration, and the expansion and evolution of the European Union, is critically analyzed. The book also thoroughly discusses the current view of the EU and the complex crises emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. While the book focuses primarily on Europe, the role of other countries is also examined. The rise of hostile enemies from Turkey, Russia, the US and China is explored, and the history and outcome of Brexit also receives unique focus. Maps are used throughout to clearly depict the enlargement process. This illuminating text will be valuable reading for students and researchers across international economics, economic history, political economy and European studies.

The Economics and Politics of European Integration offers a comprehensive history of European integration, from the conceptualization of a United States of Europe, to the present day. The special role of the United States in this process of integration, and the expansion and evolution of the European Union, is critically analyzed. The book also thoroughly discusses the current view of the EU and the complex crises emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. While the book focuses primarily on Europe, the role of other countries is also examined. The rise of hostile enemies from Turkey, Russia, the US and China is explored, and the history and outcome of Brexit also receives unique focus. Maps are used throughout to clearly depict the enlargement process. This illuminating text will be valuable reading for students and researchers across international economics, economic history, political economy and European studies.

Due to the fundamental two-way interaction between the theoretical and the empirical aspects of monetary economics, together with the relationship of both to matters of public policy, any organization of material comprehensively spanning the subject is bound to be arbitrary. The 23 surveys commissioned for this Handbook have been arranged in a way that the editors feel reflects some of the most important logical divisions within the field and together they present a comprehensive account of the current state of the art. The Handbook is an indispensable reference work which should be part of every professional collection, and which makes ideal supplementary reading for graduate economics students on advanced courses.

For more information on the Handbooks in Economics series, please see our home page on http: //www.elsevier.nl/locate/hes

This volume addresses highly topical issues at a crucial time in international economic relations. The world has never been closer to dismantling the liberal multilateral trading system which has been painstakingly established and successfully operated since the Second World War. In this volume many of the world's most distinguished economists examine the movement toward protectionism, bilateralism, and regionalism, and its causes, effects, and possible solutions. The contributors are theorists, researchers, and advisors to governments and international organizations who are at the forefront of trade theory, policy, and practice, and whose analyses have a real impact on international trade. By collecting together these analyses in a single volume, this book provides a unique survey for students and scholars of economics, and all those concerned with trade theory and policy in business and government.

Expectations, Employment and Prices brings Keynesian economics into the 21st century by providing a new paradigm that explains how high unemployment could potentially persist forever without a little help from the government. The book fills in logical gaps that were missing from Keynes' General Theory of Employment Interest and Money by reconciling some of its key ideas with modern economic theory. Central bankers throughout the world are talking now about developing a second instrument of monetary policy in addition to controlling the interest rate. Roger Farmer directly addresses this issue and offers new creative monetary policy proposals and suggestions for the design of new financial institutions for the 21st century.

This study explores the relationship between China's foreign trade reforms and the domestic economic reforms that undergird China's policy of openness in the 1980s and 1990s. It provides the first comprehensive analysis of how China has emerged since reform began in 1978 as one of the most dynamic trading nations in the world. It examines both the external policy changes, such as the decentralization of trading authority and the devaluation of the domestic currency, and internal economic reforms such as the increased use of markets and prices. The volume concludes with an analysis of the sources of China's export growth and outlines further domestic economic reforms that the author believes will be required to sustain China's increasing integration into the world economy.

In the late 20th century, structural adjustment policies became the West's received wisdom as a solution to the economic problems of the South. Based on detailed empirical research, the contributors to this volume take a more heterodox and even critical approach. Many of the issues raised here are now being assimilated into a new post-Washington Consensus. The range of geographical coverage matched with the coherence of the approaches taken by the contributors allows striking comparisons to be made.

Securitization is widely used around the world, and structured products are one of the largest fixed-income asset classes. This textbook guides readers through the complexity of this financial technique and first introduces them to the mechanics of securitization and makes the key concepts, techniques and logic of this field accessible for teachers and students alike. Further, the textbook presents a systematic economic analysis of securitization, asking and answering why it exists, how it works, why it has failed, how complex structures operate, why they are so complex, and many other related questions. The author offers a unique approach, and combines detailed discussions of theoretical economics models with advanced empirical research in order to confront them to the perspective of an experienced practitioner in this market.

The Brazilian economy has long been defined by its enormous potential. Over the past 30 years, some of this has at last been realised. Latin America's largest economy has rapidly risen in global importance while poverty at home has declined. Yet, despite periods of progress, Brazil remains prone to economic crisis. It is also beset with stubborn inefficiencies and income disparities. This book considers the structural challenges which will need to be overcome if Brazil is to break with the past and finally embark on a path of sustained, inclusive growth. This book aims to give the reader a clear knowledge of the nature of these structural challenges, why they exist and the effectiveness of attempts to overcome them. Through this, readers will gain a deep understanding of the contemporary Brazilian economy. The challenges discussed fall into three areas: those centring on competitiveness and the supply side, those arising from critical macroeconomic issues and those connected with environmental sustainability and social inclusion. This volume systematically examines each of these domains, highlighting such vital topics as export competitiveness, human capital formation, environmental policy and the role of financial market reform. Where appropriate, this book sets Brazil's experience in an international comparative context. It points out that many of the challenges faced by Brazil are shared by other emerging economies. In this sense, the policy lessons which stem from this volume have broader international relevance. This book will be vital reading for all those seeking in-depth understanding of one of the world's most important, yet troubled, economies. This readership is likely to include undergraduate and postgraduate students on development economics and Latin American area studies programmes, policymakers wanting an up-to-date and coherent analysis of Latin America's largest economy, and financial professionals.

The Brazilian economy has long been defined by its enormous potential. Over the past 30 years, some of this has at last been realised. Latin America's largest economy has rapidly risen in global importance while poverty at home has declined. Yet, despite periods of progress, Brazil remains prone to economic crisis. It is also beset with stubborn inefficiencies and income disparities. This book considers the structural challenges which will need to be overcome if Brazil is to break with the past and finally embark on a path of sustained, inclusive growth. This book aims to give the reader a clear knowledge of the nature of these structural challenges, why they exist and the effectiveness of attempts to overcome them. Through this, readers will gain a deep understanding of the contemporary Brazilian economy. The challenges discussed fall into three areas: those centring on competitiveness and the supply side, those arising from critical macroeconomic issues and those connected with environmental sustainability and social inclusion. This volume systematically examines each of these domains, highlighting such vital topics as export competitiveness, human capital formation, environmental policy and the role of financial market reform. Where appropriate, this book sets Brazil's experience in an international comparative context. It points out that many of the challenges faced by Brazil are shared by other emerging economies. In this sense, the policy lessons which stem from this volume have broader international relevance. This book will be vital reading for all those seeking in-depth understanding of one of the world's most important, yet troubled, economies. This readership is likely to include undergraduate and postgraduate students on development economics and Latin American area studies programmes, policymakers wanting an up-to-date and coherent analysis of Latin America's largest economy, and financial professionals.

This book presents a comprehensive overview of three key areas: heterodox macroeconomics, development economics and classical political economy. It offers an alternative macroeconomic framework to analyse policies with an emphasis on issues of equity and justice. With contributions by leading economists from across the world, it examines the growth and distribution of income; trade and finance in developing countries; classical political economy and Marxist theory; dualism in the US economy; economic crisis; and agrarian economy in poor countries. It explores themes such as the effect of an exogenous shock to wage share; Harrodian instability and Steindlian solutions; economics and politics of social democracy; the role of power in the macroeconomy; economic development through the promotion of domestic value chains; and reflections on primitive accumulation. Going beyond the neo-classical tradition, the volume opens up a new vista of economics by discussing unexplored questions. It provides a refreshing treatment of time-tested ideas as well as discussions of recent developments and current research. A major intervention in heterodox macroeconomics and a tribute to macroeconomist Amit Bhaduri, this book will be useful to scholars and researchers of economics, political economy, development studies, sociology, political science, public administration, economic theory, economic history, economic geography and critical studies, as well as professionals, economists and policymakers.

This book examines unemployment insurance policy through a survey, taking stock of the theoretical work in the field of labor economics. It closely follows and assesses developments in the modelling of optimal unemployment insurance (UI) policies, beginning with the initial analytical findings produced in the second half of the 1970s. A main part of the survey is devoted to the two basic strands of analysis about, respectively, the optimal level of UI benefits and the optimal time profile of UI policy. The book has two different objectives. The first is to provide an essential summary of the individual models, with the intention of underscoring how a number of specific messages for the policy-maker can be derived from analytical constructions. It further emphasizes and comments on what the models deliver to UI policy-makers. The second objective is to stress the importance and extension of open questions in the field of the theoretical approach to the unemployment insurance issue. The survey discusses the multiplicity of heterogeneities of the labor world in particular as relevant for UI issues on the one side, and on the other hand, the independence of the two basic choices of UI policy, its meaning and its limits, and the possible forms of complementarity between these choices. The book is a must-read for researchers, students, and policy-makers interested in a better understanding of the field of labor economics in general, as well as unemployment insurance policies in particular.