Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.

The evolution of private saving and its interaction with government fiscal policy play an important and complex role in the development of the national economy. To gain insight into this process, it is imperative that we improve our understanding of the savings behaviour of individual households and of the ways in which they aggregate over the entire population to produce national saving. Italy provides an ideal laboratory in which to assess the impact of government and private transfer, imperfections in the capital markets, productivity growth and shifting demographic patterns on the saving behavior of individual households and on their aggregation into total private saving. The book draws on the Italian experience and data, and offers findings on many aspects of the process of saving determination.

Persistent Disparity provides a comprehensive examination of the magnitude and scope of racial economic disparity in the United States. The authors directly assess the extent of black economic progress in the US since World War II and address the controversy of whether the racial income gap is closing or widening as America approaches the 21st century. Darity and Myers explicitly make the connection between what the theory of racial inequality espouses and corresponding policy recommendations for remedying such disparity such as affirmative action and reparations. The authors challenge the cultural-genetic explanation and advance a new theoretical explanation that incorporates a more expansive characterization of the nature and role of discrimination. They also conclude that conventional anti-discrimination efforts are unlikely to be sufficient to close the gap. This book will be essential reading for anyone interested in US social and economic history, political economy, African-American studies, and public policy.

This comprehensive two-volume collection presents key papers on the relationship between international trade and trade policy on the one hand, and poverty and inequality on the other. These relationships highlight the connections between the WTO and income distribution. The analytical and policy context of the volumes is laid out by the editor's introduction and by the first two articles of the collection. The selected papers in the first volume cover macroeconomic links, price links, general equilibrium modeling and, in the second volume, factor markets. Prominent in the second volume are readings on the effects of trade on labour markets in developed and developing countries. Some articles develop the theory of trade and income distribution, but most are empirical and quantitative, stressing the need to test theory and measure key effects before one can make useful policy statements. This book will be invaluable for graduate students, policy makers and professional applied economists.

* 4th edition has more emphasis on inequality, ownership structures, financialization, the changing nature of work, and global as well as economy-wide change and uncertainty * Several chapters include discussion on the impacts of COVID-19 on economic well-being and other macroeconomic outcomes like health and labour markets * General updates, including new data, new exercises and discussion questions * The first three chapters of 3rd edition have now been condensed to two chapters in the 4th edition * Differs from other principles books on the market in its pluralist approach. It covers everything the student needs to know, whilst also placing issues in their historical, institutional, social, political, and ethical context. * Introduces students to different schools of thought in economics. Perspectives include neoclassical economics, Keynesian economics, ecological economics, institutional economics and feminist economics. * Logical building-block structure, providing student with a clear sequential approach to macroeconomic models. * Companion website with student study guide, PPT slides and teaching materials (including test bank)

This monograph aspires to lay the foundations of a new scientific discipline, demoeconomics, representing the synthesis of demography and spatial economics. This synthesis is performed in terms of interaction between population and its economic activity. The monograph appears a unique research work having no analogs in scientific literature. Demoeconomic systems are studied involving the macrosystems approach which combines the generalized entropy maximization principle and the local equilibria principle. Demoeconomic systems operate in an uncertain environment; thus and so, the monograph develops the methodology and technique of probabilistic modeling and forecasting of their evolution.

Rent, resources, and technologies are three crucial issues to the understanding of history and economics. The scarcity of resources, its interplay with technology, and the role of rent in explaining both economic growth and income distribution are investigated by adopting a multi-sectoral and non-proportional model, where scarce resources impose several scale constraints that may slow growth, but may contribute to further development of new technologies. In this dynamic framework the category of rent acquires new dimensions with far-reaching implications for both the system of prices and the distribution of income. The analytical and formal-theoretical perspective of this book could be used as a basis for future historical and quantitative studies.

Risk and Return for Regulated Industries provides a much-needed, comprehensive review of how cost of capital risk arises and can be measured, how the special risks regulated industries face affect fair return, and the challenges that regulated industries are likely to face in the future. Rather than following the trend of broad industry introductions or textbook style reviews of utility finance, it covers the topics of most interest to regulators, regulated companies, regulatory lawyers, and rate-of-return analysts in all countries. Accordingly, the book also includes case studies about various countries and discussions of the lessons international regulatory procedures can offer.

Over the last few years, we have witnessed an upsurge of enthusiasm about cryptocurrencies and, more generally, the so-called blockchain technology. In this new and updated edition, the authors explore what exactly these new technologies entail and promise. They argue that to understand the potential challenges and further developments in the market, one needs to develop an understanding of what needs these innovations fulfill and what business models are consistent with their use. For that, we need to sufficiently understand both the technology and how it affects the economic forces at play. This book goes beyond the headlines that say "blockchain will decentralize everything" and provides in-depth, rigorous analysis of what can be effectively decentralized and how this decentralization will work. The book draws not only on the general knowledge of digital currencies and blockchain technologies, but also on recent academic research on the topic. Featuring a fully updated chapter on cryptocurrencies and new chapters on smart contracts and enterprise blockchains, this book is critical reading for those interested in how technology developments impact business and society.

The book is based on the research concerning China's National Balance Sheet (NBS) which is conducted by NIFD, the unique research groups in China focusing on NBS. The relative data have been quoted by the IMF, Chinese government sectors, influential investment banks at home and abroad. This book offers readers a unique edited work that systematically presents solutions to manage financial risk in the context of the current situation in China.

This book aims to showcase and advance recent debates over the extent to which undergraduate macroeconomics teaching models adequately reflect the latest developments in the field. It contains 16 essays on topics including the 3-equation New Consensus model, extensions and alternatives to this model, and endogenous money and finance.

Since the onset of the twelfth Five-Year Plan, China has been at the forefront as an innovative nation based on a carefully designed strategy. Despite this, it can be argued that the Chinese government requires a series of more effective and systematic fiscal and taxation policies. This book analyses the status quo and possible optimization of China's fiscal and taxation policies. By drawing comparisons with other countries, as well as a practical investigation into the lessons China has drawn from elsewhere, the author shows how a nation should make steadily growing and optimized financial investments in science and technology in order to foster the optimum environment for innovation. It is shown that institutional innovation should be a systematic project which involves top-level design and top-down leadership. This volume will be a useful reference for students, scholars, and policy makes who are interested in financial policy.

This book addresses a wide range of migration-related issues in the European context and examines the socioeconomic consequences of migratory flows throughout Europe, focusing on a number of emblematic European countries. The book is divided into three parts. The first part deals with the tension between migrants and their integration processes in the receiving country, which is deeply influenced by the attitude of the local population and the different approach to highly and less skilled immigrants. The second part analyses the impact of migration on the economic structure of the receiving country, while the third part explores the varying degree of immigrants' socioeconomic integration in the country of destination. The book offers an essential interdisciplinary contribution to the issue of migration and provides readers with a better understanding of the effects that different forms of migration have had and will continue to exert on economic and social change in host countries. It also examines migration policy issues and builds on historical and empirical case studies with policy recommendations on labour market, integration and welfare policy issues. The book is addressed to a wide audience, including researchers, academics and students of economics, sociology, politics and history, as well as government/EU officials working on migration topics.

This book is the culmination of and a collection of distinguished scholar Lawrence Officer's principal research over 50 years of scholarly activity. The collection consists primarily of three topics on which the author has spent the major part of his research: purchasing power parity, standard of living, and monetary standards. There is also a unique chapter on economics and economic history in science fiction. This volume is ideal for academics, graduate and undergraduate students, and practitioners.

Over the last few decades, economists and psychologists have quietly documented the many ways in which a person's IQ matters. But, research suggests that a nation's IQ matters so much more. As Garett Jones argues in Hive Mind, modest differences in national IQ can explain most cross-country inequalities. Whereas IQ scores do a moderately good job of predicting individual wages, information processing power, and brain size, a country's average score is a much stronger bellwether of its overall prosperity. Drawing on an expansive array of research from psychology, economics, management, and political science, Jones argues that intelligence and cognitive skill are significantly more important on a national level than on an individual one because they have "positive spillovers." On average, people who do better on standardized tests are more patient, more cooperative, and have better memories. As a result, these qualities-and others necessary to take on the complexity of a modern economy-become more prevalent in a society as national test scores rise. What's more, when we are surrounded by slightly more patient, informed, and cooperative neighbors we take on these qualities a bit more ourselves. In other words, the worker bees in every nation create a "hive mind" with a power all its own. Once the hive is established, each individual has only a tiny impact on his or her own life. Jones makes the case that, through better nutrition and schooling, we can raise IQ, thereby fostering higher savings rates, more productive teams, and more effective bureaucracies. After demonstrating how test scores that matter little for individuals can mean a world of difference for nations, the book leaves readers with policy-oriented conclusions and hopeful speculation: Whether we lift up the bottom through changing the nature of work, institutional improvements, or freer immigration, it is possible that this period of massive global inequality will be a short season by the standards of human history if we raise our global IQ.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining, and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book examines debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies - i.e., government spending and taxation. It also analyses structural issues, such as savings and productivity, from an institutional perspective, taking into account education, the labor market, and pension funds, as well as other factors that have a close effect on economic performance. The book is comprehensive and thorough, it relies on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author uses both calibration of theoretical models and estimation, facilitating projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. The book also assesses what the future of the GCC economies will look like if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to adversely affect oil supply and demand and the price of oil, given their current policies and institutions. As well as scholars and researchers of economics and finance, the book will engage policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes, and think tanks.

The crisis of distribution is one of the longest standing and most complicated issues facing human society. Imbued with social, political, historic, and cultural elements, it varies significantly across different countries as a result of all these factors. As an emerging economy which transferred from a planned to a market economy, China has experienced large distribution gaps since it implemented the Reform and Opening-up Policy in the early 1980s, requiring stronger economic law to mitigate and regulate the crisis of distribution. In this two-volume set, the author analyzes distribution crises from a theoretical perspective and proposes law and policy solutions. In this first volume, he discusses the four main concepts and focus points of the crisis of distribution - distribution itself, the crises it faces, the rule of law, and development. Concentrating on the major distribution problems China faces in particular, the author proposes regulatory methods which can be used to overcome the distribution dilemma, such as tools from policy and economic law, and reiterates the significance of theory building in resolving the issues. The book should be of keen interest to researchers and students of law, economics, and political science.

The crisis of distribution is one of the longest standing and most complicated issues facing human society. Imbued with social, political, historic, and cultural elements, it varies significantly across different countries as a result of all these factors. As an emerging economy which transferred from a planned to a market economy, China has experienced large distribution gaps since it implemented the Reform and Opening-up Policy in the early 1980s, requiring stronger economic law to mitigate and regulate the crisis of distribution. In this second volume, the author analyses crises of distribution from a theoretical perspective and proposes law and policy solutions. Believing that such crises are a collective result of systematic limitations, the author proposes a theoretical framework of "system-distribution-development" in order to resolve distribution problems and promote economic development. He argues that a crisis of distribution cannot be avoided without coordinated development of economic law and relevant constitutional, civil, and commercial law systems. In addition, it is necessary to differentiate the territories, industries, enterprises, and individuals that constitute such diverse systems. The book should be of keen interest to researchers and students of law, economics, and political science.

Serving up fresh insights on Hong Kong's economic growth, this book investigates issues such as housing, immigration, monetary and financial systems, the business environment, and international trade and finance to provide a coherent and comprehensive overview of Hong Kong's position in the global economy. Exploring these interrelated topics chapter-by-chapter, the authors cover contemporary macroeconomic topics such as government policies supporting structural changes of the Hong Kong economy challenges to the pillars of Hong Kong's economic growth, factors determining the success and failure of emerging sectors, the impacts of the linked exchange rate system on the financial and monetary markets, the tightening integration between the Hong Kong and Mainland China economies, Hong Kong's real estate market and its socio-economic impact, regional competition, and the operation and contribution of Mainland Chinese enterprises in Hong Kong. With broad application across several courses, this book is appealing reading to researchers in the fields of economic policy, economic growth, financial modelling, and more.

Macroeconomic Theory and Policy is the second collection of Richard G. Lipsey's essays and contains material that has previously remained unpublished or has not been widely available. The book considers the macroeconomic issues of unemployment, inflation and policies to combat inflation, the Keynesian macroeconomy and supply side economics.The book begins with a new autobiographical introduction to the intellectual development, personal achievements and the fields of interest of Richard G. Lipsey and is then divided into five parts. Part one considers the Phillips Curve, wage rates and profits. The second part discusses the various theories of the causes of inflation and explores issues such as the depreciation of money, monetarism and cost-push versus demand-pull inflation. Part three looks at anti-inflation policies, focusing on incomes policies, credit and monetary policy and wage-price controls among other issues. Keynesian macroeconomics is evaluated in the fourth section, as well as inflation and the national income model. The final part considers supply-side economics. Macroeconomic Theory and Policy is an essential reference companion to the work of Richard G. Lipsey, one of the most important economists of our generation.

This volume uses cutting-edge theory and empirical analysis of channels of international interaction to build new knowledge about strategies of entrepreneurs, domestic and multinational firms, governments, and international organizations facing increasing globalization. The ongoing process of globalization implies the continuing expansion and intensification of economic, political, social, cultural and judicial relations across borders. It is furthered by reductions in transportation and communication costs, the rise of new information technologies, such as the internet, and liberalizations in the markets for goods, services, labor, capital, and technology. Globalization presents new opportunities to some, but risks and threats to others. The volume presents new research and findings by leading scholars on international trade, labor markets, financial markets, economic integration, political science, law, management, the humanities, developing countries, and international relations.

In these six lectures given at the Norwegian Royal Academy of Science and Letters, Jan Qvigstad draws on his deep experience at Norges Bank to outline key principles on which to base central bank policy. The first two lectures (Keeping promises and Transparency) emphasize the importance of credibility and ensuring accountability. Lectures 3-6 can be viewed as applying these key principles to specific issues (Making good decisions; Managing wealth; Learning from history; and Institutions). The lectures do not break new ground - indeed, Qvigstad nicely illustrates how these principles have been articulated in literature, history and politics. Rather, the lectures emphasize the lessons to be drawn by applying these principles to central banking history with primary reference to the case of Norway, such as managing Norway's sovereign wealth fund and designing institutions that will produce good policy outcomes.

Setting the issue "Most economists consider the marked increase in automatic stabilizers a highly favorable development with respect to maintenance of economic stability". Besides the rare privilege of having being signed by both Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson (Depres,Friedman, Hart, Samuelson, and Wallace [1950]), among others, this sentence expressed as soon as 1950 the consensus view on the stabilizing effect of fiscal rules governing tax revenue and public expendi tures and transfers. This positive ex ante assessment will have been confirmed ex post as part of the explanation for post war stabilization (Burns [1960], de Long and Summers [1986], Moore and Zarnovitz [1986]). However, it becomes disputed in both its positive and normative aspects. Many institutional changes since the eighties point at curbing back the transfer mechanisms underlying automatic stabilizers, and legal restraints on deficits such as the US balanced budget amendment or the European Maastricht criteria would involve serious risks for the future of stabilizers. Under such rules "the government would become, almost inevitally, a destabilizer rather than a stabilizer" said Joseph Stiglitz, quoted by the New York Times (April 1995)). "Built-in stabilizers are automatic fiscal adjustments that reduce the national income multiplier and thus cushion the effects of changes in autonomous spend ing on the level of income" (Pechman [1987]). Early analyses of the automatic fiscal stabilizers include the contributions of A. G. Hart [1945], R. Musgrave and M. Miller (1948) and E. C. Brown (1955).

There is a lack of international comparative housing studies, this book brings together scholars with knowledge on different national markets. Each chapter can be read independently, making it easy to adopt single chapters in a course curriculum. Part A and C provides a theoretical framework that can be read separately and function as a base for discussing an individual housing market by choice above the provided country chapters. The book relies on both quantitative and qualitative methods. For teaching purposes, single chapters can be used as examples of different contexts. There is very little research on international housing markets from a comparative approach. This book provides new data as well as new analysis of existing data, providing new insights on institutional constraints on national housing markets. The book is written in an accessible, non-technical manner targeting a broad academic audience, and can be used both for teaching and readers wanting to orient themselves in the field. The book provides new perspectives on international housing markets and, focusing on underlying and interconnected markets. Specifically, the role of how institutional factors influence transaction costs differently on different national markets is addressed.

This book examines how China's decentralization process has affected and will affect the country's macroeconomic performance and the functioning of the market. With an innovative application of game theory, the author develops an analytical framework that can explain the behaviour of the central and local governments under alternative institutional environments. The study also suggests how to establish desirable rules of games in China's political and economic institutions through appropriate reforms.