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Your Survival Guide to the Next Financial Storm
""Many commentators rant about budget deficits and the country's
moral failings. Russ Koesterich calmly and objectively describes
our downward economic spiral over the next 20 years and recommends
the investments best suited for that journey.""
""A must-read for anyone who has ever touched currency or heard
""A useful book that underlines an essential reality: Americans
will not be returning to the old normal. We must adapt to a
changing world that presents us with new risks and opportunities.
"The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble" broadens and deepens a
conversation we have to have.""
""This book gives investors practical and easy-to-follow
solutions on how to protect their investments and financial
""A superb book. Russ Koesterich's recommendations spanning
financial and real assets are insightful, relevant, and pragmatic.
Russ is among the select few veterans of the investment management
profession who are able to project academic insights faithfully,
offer compelling investment advice--and write a
"""The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble" is a well-crafted book. At
every turn the author explains the rationale for including or
excluding particular assets in a portfolio, especially as they
react to higher interest rates, slower growth, and possible
inflation. The investor who is worried about protecting his wealth
in the coming decade(s) would do well to consider Koesterich's
""A helpful, methodical 'financial playbook' for realistic
investors. Highly recommended for those planning to invest over the
next five years or more. It is not easy to find books that combine
debt macroeconomics with sound financial advice, but Koesterich
manages it well.""
About the Book:
The next financial disaster is around the corner. Are you prepared?
With the nation's deficit expanding into the trillions of dollars, investors need to be prepared for the inevitable--and potentially devastating--fallout. Most economists agree that interest rates will rise, inflation will likely be higher, and virtually every aspect of our economy will be affected. Smart investors need to ask themselves: "How should I invest today to survive the storm tomorrow?"
The answer is in this brilliantly calculated, forward-thinking investment guide from Black-Rock strategist Russ Koesterich. He'll show you exactly what to expect in the new deficit economy--and how to handle your finances smartly, safely, and securely . . . Stocks and Bonds How to Invest in a Rising Rate Environment Real Estate How the Deficit Will Affect the Market Commodities The Benefits of Owning Real Assets Portfolio Management What You Should Do Before It's Too Late
More than a collection of fascinating financial predictions, "The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble" offers solid advice on a wide range of investment options. You'll discover which markets are hot--and which are not--when the storm finally hits.
You'll find out if Treasury bonds are right for youand why commodities will be even more important in the future. You'll learn the best ways to invest in real estate, how to handle your growing debt, and how to manage higher interest rates for everything from mortgages to savings accounts.
Most important, you'll be able to apply these professional insights into building a stronger portfolio for you and your family.
Just because the government is gambling with our future doesn't mean you should. "The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble" offers a winning game plan to help you protect and build your wealth for the long term.
When the next storm hits, you won't just survive, you'll thrive.
The field of input-output analysis is fragmented. Statisticians collect and organize data and construct input-output coefficients. Economists analyze these statistics and their changes to measure and explain important concepts such as productivity, efficiency and comparative advantages. Applied economists and environmental analysts then build models around input-output matrices for scenario and impact analyses. This authoritative Handbook encompasses all these elements, explaining in detail the treatment and role of input-output statistics in the System of National Accounts. Importantly, it provides a unifying global supply-use framework to tie together many of the unresolved issues in collecting statistics, constructing input-output coefficients, and their use in modeling. Leading experts from international statistical offices and universities provide comprehensive coverage of the field, including history, theory, applications, uncertainty and dynamics. They elucidate the collection of accounting statistics, the construction of input-output tables, and their use in economic and environmental analysis. Furthermore, they examine the building of applied general equilibrium models, the use of these models for efficiency analysis, and the links to stochastic and dynamic input-output analysis. Students and academics studying applied economics and environmental modeling will find this an enlightening guide to the state of the art. As well as revealing and exploring the theoretical foundations, the Handbook will also act as a useful guide for practitioners.
The Annual Report 2016 provides an overview of WTO activities in 2015 and early 2016. The Report begins with a message from WTO Director-General Roberto Azev do, followed by a brief overview of 2014-15 and more in-depth accounts of WTO activities over the past year.
The fifth edition of Romer's Advanced Macroeconomics continues its tradition as the standard text and the starting point for graduate macroeconomics courses and helps lay the groundwork for students to begin doing research in macroeconomics and monetary economics. Romer presents the major theories concerning the central questions of macroeconomics. The theoretical analysis is supplemented by examples of relevant empirical work, illustrating the ways that theories can be applied and tested. In areas ranging from economic growth and short-run fluctuations to the natural rate of unemployment and monetary policy, formal models are used to present and analyze key ideas and issues. The book has been extensively revised to incorporate important new topics and new research, eliminate inessential material, and further improve the presentation.
Substantially revised and updated the second edition of this highly acclaimed text is both a vital guide and a valuable critical analysis. The book provides a contemporary comparative approach to the process of transformation of the economies of Eastern Europe and Russia. Supplying a large amount of factual and statistical information it also includes consideration of recent progress in the areas of macro-economic-stabilisation, micro-economic restructuring and integration into the world economy.
Heterodox Macroeconomics offers a detailed understanding of the
foundations of the recent global financial crisis. The chapters,
from a selection of leading academics in the field of heterodox
macroeconomics, carry out a synthesis of heterodox ideas that place
financial instability, macroeconomic crisis, rising global
inequality and a grasp of the perverse and pernicious qualities of
global and domestic macroeconomic policy making since 1980 into a
coherent perspective. It familiarizes the reader with the emerging
unified theory of heterodox macroeconomics and its
The book is divided into four key sections: I) Heterodox Macroeconomics and the Keynes-Marx synthesis; II) Accumulation, Crisis and Instability; III) The Macrodynamics of the Neoliberal Regime; and IV) Heterodox Macroeconomic Policy. The essays include theoretical, international, historical, and country perspectives on financial fragility and macroeconomic instability.
Business practices in Japan inspire fierce and even acrimonious debate, especially when they are compared to American practices. This book attempts to explain the remarkable economic success of Japan in the postwar period--a success it is crucial for us to understand in a time marked by controversial trade imbalances and concerns over competitive industrial performance. Gerlach focuses on what he calls the intercorporate alliance, the innovative and increasingly pervasive practice of bringing together a cluster of affiliated companies that extends across a broad range of markets. The best known of these alliances are the keiretsu, or enterprise groups, which include both diversified families of firms located around major banks and trading companies and vertical families of suppliers and distributors linked to prominent manufacturers in the automobile, electronics, and other industries. In providing a key link between isolated local firms and extended international markets, the intercorporate alliance has had profound effects on the industrial and social organization of Japanese businesses. Gerlach casts his net widely. He not only provides a rigorous analysis of intercorporate capitalism in Japan, making useful distinctions between Japanese and American practices, but he also develops a broad theoretical context for understanding Japan's business networks. Addressing economists, sociologists, and other social scientists, he argues that the intercorporate alliance is as much a result of overlapping political, economic, and social forces as are such traditional Western economic institutions as the public corporation and the stock market. Most compellingly, Alliance Capitalism raises important questions about the best method of exchange in any economy. It identifies situations where cooperation among companies is an effective way of channeling corporate activities in a world marked by complexity and rapid change, and considers in detail alternatives to hostile takeovers and other characteristic features of American capitalism. The book also points to the broader challenges facing Japan and its trading partners as they seek to coordinate their distinctive forms of economic organization.
Sixteen countries across the world - including the United States and many European nations - have fallen into economic crises since the late 1990s. In The Limits of Fiscal, Monetary, and Trade Policies: International Comparisons and Solutions, Jonathan E Leightner convincingly argues that the fundamental cause of the global malaise is a surplus of savings. He provides compelling evidence (via statistical estimates) that fiscal, monetary, and trade policies cannot solve the resulting problems since their effectiveness has plummeted. Leightner also shows that the solution to the current global economic woes is a "consumption driven growth model" (which China advocates but has yet to fully implement) because when there is insufficient consumption, excess savings will remain idle, seek a return from rent or deception, or fund speculative bubbles.
This book explores contemporary empirical issues in Islamic economics. It begins by outlining current trends in Islamic economics and before identifying gaps in the empirical research. It then goes on to discuss the role of institutions in economic growth for Islamic countries, and the fiscal aspects of Islamic economics. It explores issues in debt and growth, as well as the instruments of monetary management in Islamic economics. It analyses the trade-off between growth and stability and concludes with discussion of Zakat and Waqf in driving growth.
This book illustrates how the treatment of complexity in analytical frameworks shapes economic studies. It explores the ways economists make sense of our economic environment and where their differences in interpretations of economic issues and policy proposals are rooted. Schwardt examines developments in economies and the role of the public sector over the last few centuries. Taking a theoretical approach and addressing different analytical frameworks, a basic distinction is introduced between top-down approaches, where assumptions about the economic environment are formulated at the outset; and bottom-up approaches, where an economic environment emerges from the interactions of the individual agents. By recognising the validity of alternate perspectives on economic issues, Schwardt proposes an improved foundation for economics research and policy.
This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China's macroeconomic development. "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom" by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, "External and Public Debt Crises" by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration" by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household's beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. "Expectations and Investment," by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. "Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation" by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.
Structured into sub-sector by sub-sector analyses, this book provides a clear and accessible examination of industrial development, without over-generalizing or being weighed down by historical details. Written by an authority in the area of development economics it explores the companies and the individuals that have pushed Japan's economy forwards. Kohama situates the `miraculous growth' of the Japanese economy in the 1960s in the trade liberalization policy of 1960 and the income doubling plan that commenced in 1961, yet also analyzes the pre-war structures that were in place to facilitate such a 'miracle.' Combining policy analysis with empirical industry-specific analysis, he argues that private dynamism was the real driver of change, rather than policy alone. Reviewing the macroeconomic development of the economy but focusing on the development of the industrial sub-sectors that dominated Japan's industrial scene at various stages of development and structural changes that happened in the process of industrial development, this book is ideal reading for graduate students taking courses on economic development.
The issues of developing country debt crises, increased
volatility and risk, and the determination of market liquidity are
high on the agendas of policy makers, market participants and
researchers in the area of financial markets. These issues are also
of major importance to regulators and exchange officials. This book
contains a collection of eight papers which provide new insights
into all three issues, with special emphasis on futures markets,
which have received relatively little attention in the analysis of
Issues explored and findings reported in this book, have implications for policy makers in framing recommendations to government, for government officials in shaping the regulatory structure of futures exchanges, for traders on these exchanges, and also for researchers planning future investigations. The book is relevant for post-graduate and advanced under-graduate courses on financial markets in Economics, Finance and Banking.
Prior work has shown that there is a significant amount of turnover amongst the African poor as households exit and enter poverty. Some of this mobility can be attributed to regular movement back and forth in response to exogenous variability in climate, prices, health, etc. ('churning'). Other crossings of the poverty line reflect permanent shifts in long-term well-being associated with gains or losses of productive assets or permanent changes in asset productivity due, for example, to adoption of improved technologies or access to new, higher-value markets. Distinguishing true structural mobility from simple churning is important because it clarifies the factors that facilitate such important structural change. Conversely, it also helps identify the constraints that may leave other households caught in a trap of persistent, structural poverty. The papers in this book help to distinguish the types of poverty and to deepen understanding of the structural features and constraints that create poverty traps. Such an understanding allows communities, local governments and donors to take proactive, effective steps to combat persistent poverty in Africa. This book was previously published as a special issue of the Journal of Development Studies.
Banks and other financial institutions play a fundamental and yet divisive role in the health of any economy. As lenders they are important to everyone seeking a mortgage or a car loan. As investors they are essential gears of economic progress. And yet when crises hit and the economy tumbles, they are vilified. Is it possible for the banking and financial sectors to both be crisis-free and sustain economic growth that benefits everyone? This is the central question that Anjan Thakor, one of the leading analysts of banking and financial institutions, takes up in this insightful overview of the purpose of banking. He starts with the foundations of banks as safe-keepers of assets and providers of liquidity crucial to a dynamic economy. They manage risk, monitor borrowers, create trust, are providers of information, and facilitate innovation. And yet notwithstanding these essential purposes, the reputation of banks has suffered tremendously in the wake of crises that have harmed the financial sector, the real economy, and many people. The reason, Thakor argues, is that banks have lost sight of their higher purpose, which is tied to their role as safe-keepers of assets and creators of value. These essential economic functions should drive banks' culture, capital structure, and customer relationships. Credit ratings cannot replace relationships, leverage is no substitute for judgment, and the pursuit of profit should not come at the expense of prudence. Thakor shows that while governments can play an important role in creating the environment of banks, including through microprudential and macroprudential regulation, ultimately it is up to banks to improve their culture and align it with their purpose in society.
A major revision of an established textbook on the theory, measurement, and history of economic growth, with new material on climate change, corporate capitalism, and innovation. Authors Duncan Foley, Thomas Michl, and Daniele Tavani present Classical and Keynesian approaches to growth theory, in parallel with Neoclassical ones, and introduce students to advanced tools of intertemporal economic analysis through carefully developed treatments of land- and resource-limited growth. They cover corporate finance, the impact of government debt and social security systems, theories of endogenous technical change, and the implications of climate change. Without excessive formal complication, the models emphasize rigorous reasoning from basic economic principles and insights, and respond to students' interest in the history and policy dilemmas of real-world economies. In addition to carefully worked out examples showing how to use the analytical techniques presented, Growth and Distribution presents many problems suitable for inclusion in problem sets and examinations. Detailed answers to these problems are available. This second edition includes fresh data throughout and new chapters on climate change, corporate capitalism, models of wealth inequality, and technical change.
As the premier forum for global economic governance, G20 was successful in warding off the global economic crisis of 2008 09 and preventing it from becoming a full-blown depression. This book assesses the progress of the G20 with a focus on India. It discusses the role India has played in the success of the G20 process and, more importantly, delineates the possible barriers to India's enhanced involvement in the G20, and in global governance in general. As the global economy remains mired in uncertainties - stemming from the Euro crisis, lacklustre economic performance in the United States, and slowing of major emerging economies - this volume fills the need for a collection of analytical research papers from the perspective of emerging economies, and takes stock of the performance of the G20 thus far. It also points towards the unresolved issues and the future course of action in global financial and macroeconomic stance."
Over the last few decades, economists and psychologists have quietly documented the many ways in which a person's IQ matters. But, research suggests that a nation's IQ matters so much more. As Garett Jones argues in Hive Mind, modest differences in national IQ can explain most cross-country inequalities. Whereas IQ scores do a moderately good job of predicting individual wages, information processing power, and brain size, a country's average score is a much stronger bellwether of its overall prosperity. Drawing on an expansive array of research from psychology, economics, management, and political science, Jones argues that intelligence and cognitive skill are significantly more important on a national level than on an individual one because they have "positive spillovers." On average, people who do better on standardized tests are more patient, more cooperative, and have better memories. As a result, these qualities-and others necessary to take on the complexity of a modern economy-become more prevalent in a society as national test scores rise. What's more, when we are surrounded by slightly more patient, informed, and cooperative neighbors we take on these qualities a bit more ourselves. In other words, the worker bees in every nation create a "hive mind" with a power all its own. Once the hive is established, each individual has only a tiny impact on his or her own life. Jones makes the case that, through better nutrition and schooling, we can raise IQ, thereby fostering higher savings rates, more productive teams, and more effective bureaucracies. After demonstrating how test scores that matter little for individuals can mean a world of difference for nations, the book leaves readers with policy-oriented conclusions and hopeful speculation: Whether we lift up the bottom through changing the nature of work, institutional improvements, or freer immigration, it is possible that this period of massive global inequality will be a short season by the standards of human history if we raise our global IQ.
In June 2008, Justin Yifu Lin was appointed Chief Economist of the World Bank, right before the eruption of the worst global financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. Drawing on experience from his privileged position, Lin offers unique reflections on the cause of the crisis, why it was so serious and widespread, and its likely evolution. Arguing that conventional theories provide inadequate solutions, he proposes new initiatives for achieving global stability and avoiding the recurrence of similar crises in the future. He suggests that the crisis and the global imbalances both originated with the excess liquidity created by US financial deregulation and loose monetary policy, and recommends the creation of a global Marshall Plan and a new supranational global reserve currency. This thought-provoking book will appeal to academics, graduate students, policy makers, and anyone interested in the global economy.
Technology Differences over Space and Time looks at how countries use their productive resources--such as workers, skills, equipment and structures, and natural resources. Francesco Caselli develops methods to assess the efficiency with which productive inputs are used, and how these efficiencies vary across countries and over time. Caselli finds that richer countries use skilled workers relatively more efficiently than unskilled workers, and equipment and structures relatively more efficiently than natural resources. They also are relatively more efficient users of labor than of capital. Technological change tends to make countries particularly efficient at using skills and less efficient at using capital. Technical change also favors experienced workers. In order to interpret and understand these findings, Caselli presents a theory of technology choice. In this theory, firms pick technologies that make the most efficient use of the most abundant production factors when these factors are good substitutes for the less abundant factors. Firms pick technologies that make the most of less abundant factors when other suitable factors are not available for substitution. For example, rich countries, where skilled workers are abundant, use skilled workers efficiently, as these are good substitutes for unskilled workers. This flexible framework can be applied to other pairs of inputs, over time, and across countries. Technology Differences over Space and Time has significant implications not only for the theoretical understanding of development and technological innovation, but also for government formulation of industrial policy and multinationals making decisions about what to invest in and where to make those investments.
The inequality compendium hailed by Knight-Ridder as a "must-read
for everyone who hopes to see equal opportunity restored to its
rightful place in the American dream."
This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing results from the "China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM)," a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China's economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China's economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
What circumstances or behaviors turn poverty into a cycle that perpetuates across generations? The answer to this question carries especially important implications for the design and evaluation of policies and projects intended to reduce poverty. Yet a major challenge analysts and policymakers face in understanding poverty traps is the sheer number of mechanisms--not just financial, but also environmental, physical, and psychological--that may contribute to the persistence of poverty all over the world. The research in this volume explores the hypothesis that poverty is self-reinforcing because the equilibrium behaviors of the poor perpetuate low standards of living. Contributions explore the dynamic, complex processes by which households accumulate assets and increase their productivity and earnings potential, as well as the conditions under which some individuals, groups, and economies struggle to escape poverty. Investigating the full range of phenomena that combine to generate poverty traps--gleaned from behavioral, health, and resource economics as well as the sociology, psychology, and environmental literatures--chapters in this volume also present new evidence that highlights both the insights and the limits of a poverty trap lens. The framework introduced in this volume provides a robust platform for studying well-being dynamics in developing economies.
Today, the most pressing challenges for public economics are of macroeconomic nature: pensions, debt, income distribution, and fiscal sustainability. All these problems are compounded by the phenomenon of demographic transition and aging. This graduate textbook addresses these issues with the help of state-of-the-art macroeconomic tools that are based on a sound microfoundation and rooted in empirical evidence. Different from the standard partial-equilibrium analysis in traditional textbooks on public economics, the concept of general equilibrium helps to account for compensating or amplifying side-effects of economic policy. GAUSS and MATLAB computer code as well as teaching material (slides) are available as downloads from the author's homepage.
The new edition of a concise and nontechnical but rigorous introductory text that emphasizes fundamental concepts and real-world applications, thoroughly revised and updated. This introductory text offers an alternative to the encyclopedic, technically oriented approach taken by traditional textbooks on macroeconomic principles. Concise and nontechnical but rigorous, its goal is not to teach students to shift curves on diagrams but to help them understand fundamental macroeconomic concepts and their real-world applications. It accomplishes this by providing a clear exposition of introductory macroeconomic theory along with more than 700 one- or two-sentence "news clips," based on economics media coverage, as illustrations or student exercises. Although the writing is accessible, end-of-chapter questions are challenging, requiring a thorough understanding of related macroeconomic concepts, critical-thinking skills, and an ability to make connections to the real world. This fourth edition has been thoroughly revised and updated, with new material on such topics as aggregate supply and demand, supply-side models, recent issues faced by the Federal Reserve, the role of government, and "burst bubbles." The more challenging end-of-chapter questions are separated out, and news clip questions have been added that refer to recent events. Optional chapter appendixes offer technical material; other appendixes provide answers to sample exam questions and to even-numbered end-of-chapter questions. Text boxes ("curiosities") offer short expositions of related topics. The book can be used as a text for principles of macroeconomics and applied macroeconomics courses, as a supplementary text for a traditional macro-principles course, or for MBA macroeconomics courses.
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