Forecasting-the art and science of predicting future outcomes-has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts' earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

The Open Economy Macromodel: Past, Present And Future has two main objectives. The first is to assess the state of play of the Open Economy Macromodel by bringing together those who developed it with those who apply it today. The second is to assess possible directions for its future development.

The volume is divided into three parts. Part one focuses on the models, men, and institutions involved in the development of the international macroeconomic model. In this section, the contributors examine the two monetary approaches to the balance of payments, as well as the relationship between long-term fluctuations in real exchange rates and inflation. Part two deals with the present state of the models by looking at Robert Mundell's theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs) and its relationship with key currencies. The chapters in this section also consider the impact of exchange rate variability on labor markets, as well as the interactions between theoretical developments and real-world behavior in the open economy macromodel. The third and last part of this volume provides a perspective on the future by looking at alternate models and institutional perspectives. Several contributors examine the relationship between asset prices, the real exchange rate, and unemployment in a small economy via what they call "a medium-run structuralist perspective." The future of institutional structures necessary to conduct international economic policy is the subject of the last chapters in part three of the volume.

This book provides a comprehensive knowledge of the Asian crisis from an economic, political and social point of view, and suggests possible scenarios which could take place in the future. The analysis is divided into two parts. The first includes area studies of the main Asian countries during the crisis, beginning with China, Japan and Southeast Asia, followed by South Asia and Central Asia. The second focuses on international variables, including environmental, political, and regional issues.

The theme of this extensive book is the relationship between consumption and growth in the context of the long run theory of effective demand. Taking Schumpeter's views on economic development as a starting point, the author proposes an original framework for the analysis of consumption patterns as an element of growth in advanced market economies. The book examines the role of demand with respect to the theory of structural change and the theory of consumption at both the micro and macro level. The theoretical framework is employed to analyze the consumption-growth relationship and its implications for the process of structural evolution. The actual dynamics of consumption are examined in terms of the cycle of expansion in the US economy during the 1980s. The author concludes that there is a distinct shift towards a pattern of 'consumption deepening' that explains the consumption fuelled recovery of the 1980s and mirrors a process of 'intensive growth' of the market. This interpretation sheds light on the underlying process sustaining US expansion during the 1990s and the questions facing advanced market economies which have begun to experience the emergence of an 'internet scenario' in terms of development. In focusing on the relationship between consumption changes and the growth process, this book distinguishes itself from much of the literature on the subject which deals with these two aspects individually. Davide Gualerzi breaks genuinely new ground with his empirical and theoretical research. This book will appeal to economists interested in growth and economic development, scholars in related social sciences, and the wide base of economists and academics sympathetic to new approaches to the problem of economic growth.

The US current account deficit approaches one trillion dollars, absorbing 75 percent of world surpluses. A fire sale of US debt could cause a global recession through disorderly devaluation of the dollar, raising interest rates and crashing stock markets. The G7 doctrine of shared responsibility intends to coordinate regional efforts. There is meagre political capital in most regions for these reforms. The devaluation of the dollar could be faster than G7 policy coordination. This book analyzes the main issues and individual regions, including China, Japan, the EU and the USA.

This book analyzes the world economic crisis as the essential background for an investigation into recent problems of Japanese capitalism. Taken into consideration are various socio-political or intitutional factors which affect the concrete course of current capitalist development.;The study raises questions such as why the stable and prosperous long boom of the postwar capitalist world resulted in an unstable period of deep and widespread depression from 1973, what the roles of Keynesianism and Monetarism are in the ongoing process of world economic crises and how the socio-economic positions of working people have been affected by the attempts to restructure capitalist firms.;In so doing, the author hopes to contribute to Marxian social science studies and offer sound social alternatives for the mass of working people.

This compelling research review touches on the contemporary debates in macroeconomics that have consequentially emerged as a result of government debt. Should governments tolerate high public debt or become more indebted given the now prevailing low interest rates? Or is high public debt bad for private sector confidence and growth, by feeding uncertainty, expectation of future tax hikes and an imminent collapse in the wake of the next crisis? This review presents a collection of articles reflecting on these complex and intriguing topics. This review will be useful for policy makers and academics alike, while being particularly suited for those wishing to explore this exciting research area further.

The European economy is still in recession, even though there are some weak indications of stabilization. This book examines important aspects of the crisis in selected countries of Southern Europe, the Balkans and Eastern Europe. The intensity of the crisis and its economic and social repercussions have varied from country to country, generally impacting the core countries less than those on the periphery. The countries in the latter group currently face significant structural challenges with regard to improving productivity and competitiveness, including the areas of investment, climate, the labour market, and the public sector. The book not only illustrates the scope of the problem, but also informs readers on the policies implemented to address it, and discusses the progress some of the economies have already made. Special topics include the convergence hypothesis, agriculture and growth, Public-Private Partnership in Infrastructure (PPPI), and the labour market.

This book stresses how the rise of China and India has completely changed the world economy, moving it towards disequilibrium. Several alternative economic policies are tested to seek a way towards high growth in any continent associated with long-run real and financial equilibrium. The Authors argue that a new exchange rate system is required and that a new world governance is needed.

This book addresses one of the most topical and pressing areas of inequality experienced by women in the UK: inequality in the labour market. Despite the changed and changing position of women in society there remain substantial gender differences in the labour market. Bringing together the expertise of a range of authors, including renowned scholars and senior policy makers, it offers a coherent account of gender inequality in the labour market. It includes: - An extensive introduction with the wider context, the basic facts on various relevant labour market outcomes, international comparisons, and the legislative framework; - Chapters that focus on the key issues, offering analysis of the way inequality in the labour market is related to the wider macroeconomic dynamics, factors that explain the gender pay gap, the transition from education to the labour market, the dimensions of occupational segregation, and the division of labour within the household. The book is essential reading for academics and students with an interest in gender inequality and the labour market, as well as for those who would like an objective account of the main factors explaining this inequality.

Angus Maddison has made a major contribution to our understanding of the comparative, historical and quantitative aspects of economic growth. This important collection of his work - including a number of original new essays - offers an authoritative analysis of the economic performance of nations. Drawing extensively on quantitative and qualitative evidence, Professor Maddison provides a clear view of why growth rates differ, why real income and productivity spreads are so wide, and why the pace of growth has varied over time. The first section features essays which provide an analytical framework for causal analysis of growth performance, this is followed by papers on investment and capital stock estimation, savings behaviour and measurement of economic performance levels. There are three essays on the roots of economic 'backwardness' and the final section deals with the effect of economic and social policy on the performance of advanced capitalist countries. These essays offer a depth of historical and interspatial perspective which is unrivalled. In addition to focusing on the influences of institutions, ideology and colonialism, Professor Maddison's analysis makes sophisticated use of the growth accounting approach. A specially-written autobiographical essay has also been included.

Investment provides an examination of the key macroeconomic theories which underpin fixed asset investment. It would make ideal reading for an intermediate level macroeconomics course or a module on fixed asset investment taking an applied macroeconomic perspective.

This study illuminates the characteristics of the Japanese economy and analyzes how and why they have been changing. It covers such areas as the Japanese firm, consumption and saving patterns, the labour market, financial markets, macroeconomic policies and international economic relations. The contributors to this 15-volume paper are all internationally-known and leading researchers of the Japanese economy. It gives a comprehensive coverage of both domestic and international aspects, with a detailed overview chapter by the editor, but is still easily accessible and useful for readers with only a basic background in economics.

Until recently, central bank independence was confined to just two major capitalist countries, the USA and Germany. As a result of stagflation and the voguish espousal of neo-liberalism in the 1980s, the institution has been adopted in most OECD and in many other countries. This book questions the principle of autonomy, examining the Bundesbank in historical context and exposing the flaws in both the technical and the political case for the wholesale adoption of the Bundesbank model by other states.

This book takes readers on a unique journey across some of the most debated implications of the rise of the Chinese economy on the global scene. From the analysis, suggestions emerge on how to improve statistical tools to measure performance and to obtain more precise macroeconomic forecasts. Moreover, it confirms the suspicion that a governance model of firms that does not sufficiently encourage market competition may have significant costs in terms ofefficiency for the Chinese production system. The analysis of demographic factors and of household savings gives further support to calls for a serious reform effort, particularly of the pension and health care systems, to utilize households' savings more efficiently and equitably. Finally the analyses of Chinese and global trade underscore the need for a less superficial consideration of the implications of the Chinese presence in global markets.
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Starting point of this book is the observation that an increase in public debt must be accompanied by a rise in the primary surplus of the government to guarantee sustainability of public debt. The book first elaborates on that principle from a theoretical point of view and then tests whether empirical evidence for that rule can be found. Additional tests are implemented to gain further evidence on sustainability of public debt. In order to allow for time varying coefficients penalized spline estimations are performed. The theoretical chapters present endogenous growth models and assume that the primary surplus rises as public debt increases so that sustainability of public debt is given. Implications of public deficits and debt are studied assuming full employment and for unemployment. The conclusion summarizes the findings and compares the results of the different models. Finally, policy implications are given showing how governments should deal with high public debt to GDP ratios.

Developing countries' financial sector has been affected by a troubled macroeconomic environment and repressive policies. To improve their financial sector performance, some governments have responded with financial reform policies which have succeeded in only a few but failed in several countries. This book identifies the challenges and solutions for policymakers and financial managers in countries implementing financial reform policies. It analyzes the anatomy of success and failure of reform and argues for sound financial regulation and supervision in these countries.

South Korea's path toward a higher quality of life has been a dynamic process, Suh shows, shaped by historical contingencies, some immutable logic of capitalist development, and a dialectical relationship between the state and Korean civil society. Debunking the illusion of democracy and myths of self-regulating capitalism in South Korea, Suh shows that a growth machine is not a panacea for the development of human beings and their quality of life. If instead the raison d'etre of quality of life depended upon a robust civil society operating under fair rules of the game by the state, the developmental road would be more promising.

Suh seeks to test the hypothesis that the rising tide of economic growth will raise all boats in the Korean sea, remapping its structural pressure points which have been submerged at high tide. Given the high levels of economic growth generated by state intervention, any demand of distributive justice necessitates egailitarian reforms. As Suh shows, the present South Korean situation goes straight to the heart of theoretical questions about the enduring structures of capitalism, and its promise to improve average living standards and to link the redistribution of economic rewards to enhanced economic performance of the system as a whole.

South Korea's path to quality of life has been a dynamic process, Suh shows, determined by historical contingencies, with some immutable logic of capitalist development, and a dialectical relationship between the state and Korean civil society. A study of particular interest to scholars, researchers, and policy makers concerned with political economy and social-economic development and East Asian Studies.

This volume consists of a number of papers related to the theme of the dynamics of inequality and poverty. These are subdivided into four separate parts.

The five chapters in Part I of this volume are concerned with inequality and poverty over extended time periods. Bandyopadhyay and Cowell deal with the concept of vulnerability in the context of income mobility of the poor. Biewen studies the extent and the composition of chronic poverty in Germany, comparing the results with the United Kingdom and the United States. Van de Ven describes a dynamic microsimulation model of cohort labour earnings based on the Australian population aged between 20 and 55 years, and considers how the widening social gap between the Australia and the UK is reflected by their redistributive systems, through the use of static and dynamic microsimulation. Kelly analyses the lifetime distribution of net worth in Australia using a dynamic microsimulation model to project the cross-sectional and lifetime asset holdings of a 5-year birth cohort over a period of 40 years.

In Part II, the issue of intergenerational transfers of poverty is considered. Corak compares generational earnings mobility and the reasons for the degree to which the long run labour market success of children is related to that of their parents across countries. He provides a framework for understanding the underlying causal process as well as the conception of equality of opportunity, as a guide for public policy.. Grawe uses data from the British National Childhood Development Study to examine the quality-quantity trade-off in fertility in multiple measures of child achievement. Maani examines the link between parental incomeand other resources during adolescent years, and higher education choices of the offspring at age 18, using a recent longitudinal data set from New Zealand.

Part III is concerned with inequality over time. First, Wolff examines US inequality since the late 1940s, investigating the role of computer investment, dispersion of schooling and unionisation rate in the rise in inequality between 1968 and 2000. Second, Chotikapanich and Griffiths consider the question of testing for dominance in income distributions through the development of Bayesian methods of inference, which report on changes in income distributions in terms of the posterior probabilities. This allows an assessment of whether income distributions have changed over time.

The final part of this volume is concerned with measurement issues. Makdissi and Wodon propose a measure of extreme poverty which is multidimensional in nature. It recognises the fact that there are interaction effects between different deprivations and that the length of time during which deprivations are felt may have a negative impact on household well-being. In the final contribution, Cowell examines Theil's approach to the measurement of inequality in the context of subsequent developments over recent decades.
*Focuses on the dynamics of inequality and poverty
*Examines inequality and poverty over time, the intergenerational transfer of poverty, inequality over time, and measurement issues
*Chapters discuss inequality and poverty in developed countries around the world, providing a mulitnational perspective

This book brings together articles by international political economists on Keynesian economics and its legacy. The book begins with Don Patinkin's assessment of Keynes' early life and focuses attention on Keynes' contribution to monetary economics. Among the many controversies surrounding "The general theory", Axel Leijonhufvud takes the view that the Keynesian revolution began and stayed on the wrong track.;Leland Yeager refutes the idea that Keynesian economics was responsible for the general prosperity in the indusrialized world immediately after the Second World War. Although Karl Brunner is not fundamentally against Keynes' methodological approach, he is critical of his reliance on fiscal rather than monetary policy. Whereas Terence Hutchison defends Keynes, both against his critics but also against Keynesians, and argues that Keynes would not have shared their interpretation of his work on fundamental grounds. Patrick Minford traces the roots of neoclassical economics, based on the concept of rational expectations, back to "the general theory". In the final chapter, Stephen Littlechild offers an alternative to Keynesian economics by focusing attention on the Austrian school.

This title, first published in 1979, presents the Ph.D. thesis of the world-renowned economist and financial expert, Willem Buiter. In Part I, three alternative specifications of temporary equilibria in asset markets, including their implications for macroeconomic models, are discussed; Part II examines the long-term implications of some short-term macroeconomic models. The analysis of the theoretical foundations of 'direct crowding out' and 'indirect crowding out' is particularly prominent, with the result that a synthesis of short-term macroeconomic analysis and long-term growth theory is formulated. The traditional tools of comparative dynamics and stability analysis are employed frequently. However, it is also argued that the true scope of government policy can only be adequately evaluated with the aid of concepts such as dynamic and static controllability. Temporary Equilibrium and Long-Run Equilibrium is a valuable study, and relevant for all serious students of modern economic theory.

This book provides a comprehensive and concrete illustration of time series analysis focusing on the state-space model, which has recently attracted increasing attention in a broad range of fields. The major feature of the book lies in its consistent Bayesian treatment regarding whole combinations of batch and sequential solutions for linear Gaussian and general state-space models: MCMC and Kalman/particle filter. The reader is given insight on flexible modeling in modern time series analysis. The main topics of the book deal with the state-space model, covering extensively, from introductory and exploratory methods to the latest advanced topics such as real-time structural change detection. Additionally, a practical exercise using R/Stan based on real data promotes understanding and enhances the reader's analytical capability.

This book offers an alternative framework for macroeconomic policy in Malaysia, derived from the universal principles of social justice espoused in the objectives of the Shariah. It attempts to holistically analyze issues related to public finance, which has been criticized for lack of transparency and justice in wealth distribution. This book explores these criticisms and discusses the principles of Islamic finance that may be applied to macroeconomic policymaking to create a better economy overall. It presents a case for a flat tax system, to make the economy more resilient to shocks, and financing methods that limit interest-rate-based debt contracts and allow greater risk sharing among the market participants on a broad scale. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, this book models the Malaysian economy based on policies that apply the fundamental Islamic finance principle of risk sharing to demonstrate its benefits in spurring growth, promoting distributive justice, rendering the economy more stable, strengthening the potency of monetary policy, enhancing fiscal governance, and improving financial inclusion. The book will be of interest to students, policymakers, financial institutions, researchers, ministries of finance, central banks, securities commissions, and anyone interested in alternative economic paradigms.