Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.

Original, prescient and very different from most finance books which are highly technical and inaccessible, and also impersonal and exclusive/neoliberal. The book is informed by academic research and thinking, but not written in academic jargon and language. This research has significant global potential in reviving business education to embrace different cultural approaches to finance, long ignored by the mainstream. It helps retain timeless wisdoms and cultural values and reinvigorate social enterprise and sustainable business practices. This is a unique book, it is plural and inclusive, and at the same time, shows a solid understanding of the theory and practice of finance.

This concise yet insightful sequel to the highly acclaimed The Nature of Economic Growth provides a comprehensive critique of both old and new growth theory, highlighting the importance of economic growth for reducing poverty.A.P. Thirlwall illustrates that orthodox growth theory continues to work with 'one-good' models and to treat factor supplies as exogenously given, independent of demand. Orthodox trade theory still ignores the balance of payments consequences of different patterns of trade specialization when assessing the welfare effects of trade. The author goes on to present theory underpinned by up-to-date empirical evidence that factors of production and productivity growth are endogenous to demand, and that the structure of production and trade matter for the long-run growth performance of countries because of their impact on the balance of payments. He concludes that trade liberalisation has proved disappointing in improving the trade-off between growth and the balance of payments. This book will provide a challenging read for students and academics in the fields of economics, heterodox economics, and development. Policymakers focussing on the relationship between growth, trade and the balance of payments will also find the book to be of great interest. Contents: Preface 1. Divisions in the World Economy and the Importance of Economic Growth 2. Growth Theory: Old and 'New' 3. A Critique of Orthodox Growth Theory: Structure and Demand Matter for Economic Growth 4. The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth and Constraints on Demand 5. Balance of Payments Constrained Growth 6. Trade Liberalisation, the Balance of Payments, Growth, Inequality and Poverty References Index

In 1956, Solow proposed a neoclassical growth model in opposition or as an alternative to Keynesian growth models. The Solow model of economic growth provided foundations for models embedded in the new theory of economic growth, known as the theory of endogenous growth, such as the renowned growth models developed by Paul M. Romer and Robert E. Lucas in the 1980s and 90s. The augmentations of the Solow model described in this book, excepting the Phelps golden rules of capital accumulation and the Mankiw-Romer-Weil and Nonneman-Vanhoudt models, were developed by the authors over the last two decades. The book identifies six spheres of interest in modern macroeconomic theory: the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on growth; the effect of different returns to scale on production; the influence of mobility of factors of production among different countries on their development; the effect of population dynamics on growth; the periodicity of investment rates and their influence on growth; and the effect of exogenous shocks in the form of an epidemic. For each of these issues, the authors construct and analyze an appropriate growth model that focuses on the description of the specific macroeconomic problem. This book not only continues the neoclassical tradition of thought in economics focused on quantitative economic change but also, and to a significant extent, discusses alternative approaches to certain questions of economic growth, utilizing conclusions that can be drawn from the Solow model. It is a useful tool in analyzing contemporary issues related to growth.

The book provides in-depth insight into the financial systems in European Economic Area countries, accentuating the role of crises in shaping the condition and development of the financial arena. The authors outline their predictions for the future of financial systems, focusing on the structural changes and legacy of the COVID-19 crisis and global financial interlinkages. The book adopts both theoretical and practical approaches to explore the key issues and as such, will appeal to academics and students of financial economics and international finance, as well as policymakers and financial regulators.

This book studies the economic history of India and traces the Indian path of development from a Latin American framework and perspective. Despite sharing many historical and geological similarities, dialogue between the young democracies of Latin America and the Indian subcontinent is still extremely scarce. The volume builds a common research agenda for the economic development of the Global South. It offers Latin American insights and highlights novelties and commonalities the region shares with India's economic development. It pays special attention to the (geo)political, technological, financial, and institutional aspects related to the specific geographical and demographical features of the Indian subcontinent. A step towards strengthening the dialogue on economic development in the Global South, this book will be of interest to scholars and researchers of heterodox economics, Indian economy, comparative economics, macroeconomics, political economy, economic history, development studies, Latin American studies, and South Asian studies.

Based on an investigation of economic and resource allocation factors and their close relation to economic power, this book puts forward the power paradigm, a new economic research paradigm revealing the relationship among power, institutions, and resource allocation mechanisms, helping to establish a valid connection between macroeconomics and microeconomics and shedding light on real-world economic issues. Drawing on classical, neoclassical, and institutional economics and how these schools of thought have impacted on economic development in China over the past century, the book sheds light on distribution processes and argues that enterprise contracts, market pricing, policies, laws and regulations can all be classified as interest distribution mechanisms informed by a variety of power games. The power paradigm suggests that to achieve full utility and an optimal allocation of resources to foster social welfare, power reciprocity needs to be shared among different economic agents at the same hierarchy level while making sure that power and responsibility are equivalent for each economic agent. The book will appeal to research students and academics interested in heterodox economics, pluralist approaches, institutional economics, and game theory.

The aftermath of the 2008 crisis has substantially increased the regulation of banks and insurance companies and curtailed their risk taking, which has shifted much of the risk to their clients: firms and consumers. At the same time, digitalization has encouraged the entry of new firms combining finance and technological innovation, a phenomenon known as FinTech. The emergence of non-bank financial entities has contributed to the fragmentation of financial services, and also opened up new markets. Furthermore, the growing emphasis on corporate social responsibility has made it increasingly important for financial organizations to care about their public image. Drawing together these diverse strands, this book examines how the financial sector is evolving and how the existing actors are adapting to the institutional change and to the challenges from new actors and competitors. It also addresses the issue of how financial organizations are providing fixes to the challenges at the systemic level and how a healthier, more diverse and socially responsible financial sector is beneficial to the operations of the market economy as a whole. While there are books that address each of these issues, and also books that look at organizational diversity, there are few that investigate their interconnectedness. Responsible Finance and Digitalization offers a topical overview of the changes that are taking place in the financial sector and how the financial sector itself can contribute to solving global challenges. It equips both students (at MBA and other levels) and practitioners with analytical tools to reflect on this change and to take appropriate action to ensure that their organization can successfully navigate it and create value.

First published in 1985 Industrial Relations in Europe examines the development of trade unions and their relations with the employers and employers' organisations in a number of Western European countries in the 1980s. The shared characteristics of these systems are common heritage of political democracy, market economies, the right of employers to manage the business for which they are responsible and the right of employees to belong to unions which are free to bargain and to seek political goals which will advance the interests of their members. With case studies from Denmark, Germany, France, Great Britain, Norway etc. the volume showcases the major structural changes brought about by technological, economic and social factors which had significant implications for trade unions and traditional patterns of industrial relations. A major response was the erosion of centralized processes of decision making and a return to the individual, local initiative and an increased interest in entrepreneurship. This book is a must read for scholars of political economy, industrial economy and economics in general.

Since the onset of the twelfth Five-Year Plan, China has been at the forefront as an innovative nation based on a carefully designed strategy. Despite this, it can be argued that the Chinese government requires a series of more effective and systematic fiscal and taxation policies. This book analyses the status quo and possible optimization of China's fiscal and taxation policies. By drawing comparisons with other countries, as well as a practical investigation into the lessons China has drawn from elsewhere, the author shows how a nation should make steadily growing and optimized financial investments in science and technology in order to foster the optimum environment for innovation. It is shown that institutional innovation should be a systematic project which involves top-level design and top-down leadership. This volume will be a useful reference for students, scholars, and policy makes who are interested in financial policy.

The crisis of distribution is one of the longest standing and most complicated issues facing human society. Imbued with social, political, historic, and cultural elements, it varies significantly across different countries as a result of all these factors. As an emerging economy which transferred from a planned to a market economy, China has experienced large distribution gaps since it implemented the Reform and Opening-up Policy in the early 1980s, requiring stronger economic law to mitigate and regulate the crisis of distribution. In this two-volume set, the author analyzes distribution crises from a theoretical perspective and proposes law and policy solutions. In this first volume, he discusses the four main concepts and focus points of the crisis of distribution - distribution itself, the crises it faces, the rule of law, and development. Concentrating on the major distribution problems China faces in particular, the author proposes regulatory methods which can be used to overcome the distribution dilemma, such as tools from policy and economic law, and reiterates the significance of theory building in resolving the issues. The book should be of keen interest to researchers and students of law, economics, and political science.

The crisis of distribution is one of the longest standing and most complicated issues facing human society. Imbued with social, political, historic, and cultural elements, it varies significantly across different countries as a result of all these factors. As an emerging economy which transferred from a planned to a market economy, China has experienced large distribution gaps since it implemented the Reform and Opening-up Policy in the early 1980s, requiring stronger economic law to mitigate and regulate the crisis of distribution. In this second volume, the author analyses crises of distribution from a theoretical perspective and proposes law and policy solutions. Believing that such crises are a collective result of systematic limitations, the author proposes a theoretical framework of "system-distribution-development" in order to resolve distribution problems and promote economic development. He argues that a crisis of distribution cannot be avoided without coordinated development of economic law and relevant constitutional, civil, and commercial law systems. In addition, it is necessary to differentiate the territories, industries, enterprises, and individuals that constitute such diverse systems. The book should be of keen interest to researchers and students of law, economics, and political science.

This book addresses a wide range of migration-related issues in the European context and examines the socioeconomic consequences of migratory flows throughout Europe, focusing on a number of emblematic European countries. The book is divided into three parts. The first part deals with the tension between migrants and their integration processes in the receiving country, which is deeply influenced by the attitude of the local population and the different approach to highly and less skilled immigrants. The second part analyses the impact of migration on the economic structure of the receiving country, while the third part explores the varying degree of immigrants' socioeconomic integration in the country of destination. The book offers an essential interdisciplinary contribution to the issue of migration and provides readers with a better understanding of the effects that different forms of migration have had and will continue to exert on economic and social change in host countries. It also examines migration policy issues and builds on historical and empirical case studies with policy recommendations on labour market, integration and welfare policy issues. The book is addressed to a wide audience, including researchers, academics and students of economics, sociology, politics and history, as well as government/EU officials working on migration topics.

This authoritative Handbook provides a thorough account and analysis of the important issues relating to the globalization of the international economy. The increasing interdependence of the world's economies has caused a breakdown in national economic boundaries and a freer access to goods, services and labour. This comprehensive book, written by experts in the field, addresses major issues associated with this international economic integration. This reference work considers: global growth including inequality, saving, foreign direct investment, external debt and multinational corporations regionalization and globalization of trade such as the role of international institutions, external economies of scale and trading blocs transition to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union and East Asia internationalization and integration of markets including the financial, capital, labour and agricultural markets global environmental and resource problems including transboundary pollution, the implication of North-South trade for natural resource depletion and environmental degradation, and the impact of energy markets on global growth, pollution and economic stability.

Macroeconomic Analysis in the Classical Tradition explains how the influence of Keynes's macroeconomics, including his changed definitions of some key macroeconomic concepts, has impeded many analysts' ability to readily resolve disputes in modern macroeconomics. Expanding on his earlier work-Macroeconomics without the Errors of Keynes (2019)-the author delves into more aspects of macroeconomic theory and argues for a revision of Keynes's contribution to the field. Attention is given to theories and concepts such as Say's Law, the quantity theory of money, the liquidity trap, the permanent income hypothesis, 100% money, and the Phillips curve analysis. The chapters work to build a careful critique of Keynes's economics and make the case that the classical macroeconomics of Smith, Say, Ricardo, Mill, and others could help resolve present-day policy disagreements and redefine macroeconomic priorities. This book provides essential reading for advanced students and scholars with an interest in the foundations of Keynes's theories and current debates within macroeconomic policy.

Karl Marx hypothesized that there is a long-term tendency for the profit rate to fall in capitalist economies. Immanuel Wallerstein hypothesized that capitalist development tends to drive up labor cost, material cost, and taxation cost. This book evaluates Marx's and Wallerstein's hypotheses by studying the long-term movement of the profit rate and contributing factors in major capitalist economies. During the twentieth century, leading capitalist economies largely succeeded in stabilizing the profit rate. However, the current decline of the profit rate in China may precipitate the global capitalist economy into a new major crisis. As economic growth slows down in all major capitalist economies, Marx's original hypothesis may be verified by the global economic events in the twenty-first century.

This book deals with the effects of international trade on economic growth and money. It also re-examines Keynesian theory and analyzes economic growth in an affluent society in terms of planning, economic and social policy.

Trust is increasingly recognized as a crucial aspect of successful economic relationships, albeit a difficult one to define, and Mark Casson has been at the forefront of recent research in this area.In this sequel to his classic work The Entrepreneur, Professor Casson examines how the entrepreneurial firm succeeds by synthesizing information from different sources. The quality of this information is just as important as the quantity and the cheapest way to ensure quality is through a moral obligation to tell the truth. The author argues that a nation needs to invest in social institutions, such as schools, families and organized religion, in order to instil a sense of moral obligation and so sustain entrepreneurial success. Themes raised in this important volume include cultural perspectives on economic issues, entrepreneurship in a cultural context and the political economy of national culture. Entrepreneurship and Business Culture presents a state-of-the-art analysis of entrepreneurship and the social structures in which it is embedded. Together with its companion volume, The Organization of International Business, this topical and wide-ranging book offers a definitive analysis of the importance of trust in economic life as well as the related concepts of networking, consultation and empowerment.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining, and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book examines debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies - i.e., government spending and taxation. It also analyses structural issues, such as savings and productivity, from an institutional perspective, taking into account education, the labor market, and pension funds, as well as other factors that have a close effect on economic performance. The book is comprehensive and thorough, it relies on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author uses both calibration of theoretical models and estimation, facilitating projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. The book also assesses what the future of the GCC economies will look like if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to adversely affect oil supply and demand and the price of oil, given their current policies and institutions. As well as scholars and researchers of economics and finance, the book will engage policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes, and think tanks.

A compelling portrayal by the veteran journalist of the lives of farming communities on either side of the U.S.-Mexico border and the surprising connections between them "Conniff brings her skills and insights to a particularly urgent project: moving beyond the polarizing politics of our current era, and taking a deeper look at how people who have been pitted against each other can forge bonds of understanding." -E.J. Dionne Jr., co-author of 100% Democracy Winner of the Studs and Ida Terkel Award In the Midwest, Mexican workers have become critically important to the survival of rural areas and small towns-and to the individual farmers who rely on their work-with undocumented immigrants, mostly from Mexico, accounting for an estimated 80 percent of employees on the dairy farms of western Wisconsin. In Milked, former editor-in-chief of The Progressive Ruth Conniff introduces us to the migrants who worked on these dairy farms, their employers, among them white voters who helped elect Donald Trump to office in 2016, and the surprising friendships that have formed between these two groups of people. These stories offer a rich and fascinating account of how two crises-the record-breaking rate of farm bankruptcies in the Upper Midwest, and the contentious politics around immigration-are changing the landscape of rural America. A unique and fascinating exploration of rural farming communities, Milked sheds light on seismic shifts in policy on both sides of the border over recent decades, connecting issues of labor, immigration, race, food, economics, and U.S.-Mexico relations and revealing how two seemingly disparate groups of people have come to rely on each other, how they are subject to the same global economic forces, and how, ultimately, the bridges of understanding that they have built can lead us toward a more constructive politics and a better world.

Water exploitation has increased notably in the world during the last 250 years since the onset of industrialisation. The relationships between economic processes and water use are complex and include many interwoven drivers such as: technological development, dietary choices and food production, climate change, demographic change, and policy reforms, among others. Ensuring food, water, and energy for the growing population remains a common global challenge. Taking on a multi- and inter-disciplinary viewpoint, Water Resources and Economic Processes offers an up-to-date collection of contributions from leading scholars and works to gather research on important aspects of relevant fields and methodologies, including: Historical and long-term overview of the relations between income growth, water use, and technological development; Water markets and collaborative actions' promise and threats in the fight against water stress; Impact of climate change on water productivity, including inter- and intra-annual variations; Urban reforms and surveys on the attitude of citizens towards private and public mitigation and preservation measures; Regional, national, and global comparative case-studies; International trade, migration, conf licts, and the globalisation of water; Methodological and empirical challenges of building future scenarios. This book is a key reference text for those studying water governance and management. It is suited to PhD students, national institutions, and NGO, as well as other professionals interested in understanding sustainable water use at the local, national, and international scales.

Inflation plays a central role in macroeconomic and financial policy regulation, and its dynamic formation has gradually become a popular research topic in this field. This book comprehensively studies the dynamic mechanism of inflation in China from the perspective of New Keynesian economics. By combining the dynamic trajectory of price changes since China's reform and opening-up under Deng Xiaoping as well as the underlying economic operating characteristics, the book deploys a multifaceted approach to understand the mechanism of inflation dynamics. The author explores the microfoundations of inflation dynamics, and underlines their importance in the context of modern monetary policy. In particular, he builds upon the traditional New Keynesian Phillips curve to include factors of globalization and financialization within the inflation formation regime of modern China. As the book explores the dynamic mechanism of China's inflation from different perspectives including inflation cycle theory, price index internal conduction, price index chain transmission, capital rotation, and industry inflation mechanisms, international readers will gain a full understanding of China's inflation, monetary policy, and economy.

This book addresses one of the most important research activities in empirical macroeconomics. It provides a course of advanced but intuitive methods and tools enabling the spatial and temporal disaggregation of basic macroeconomic variables and the assessment of the statistical uncertainty of the outcomes of disaggregation. The empirical analysis focuses mainly on GDP and its growth in the context of Poland. However, all of the methods discussed can be easily applied to other countries. The approach used in the book views spatial and temporal disaggregation as a special case of the estimation of missing observations (a topic on missing data analysis). The book presents an econometric course of models of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). The main advantage of using the SURE specification is to tackle the presented research problem so that it allows for the heterogeneity of the parameters describing relations between macroeconomic indicators. The book contains model specification, as well as descriptions of stochastic assumptions and resulting procedures of estimation and testing. The method also addresses uncertainty in the estimates produced. All of the necessary tests and assumptions are presented in detail. The results are designed to serve as a source of invaluable information making regional analyses more convenient and - more importantly - comparable. It will create a solid basis for making conclusions and recommendations concerning regional economic policy in Poland, particularly regarding the assessment of the economic situation. This is essential reading for academics, researchers, and economists with regional analysis as their field of expertise, as well as central bankers and policymakers.

Few ideas in the past century have had wider financial, political, and governmental impact than that of economic growth. The common belief that endless economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product, is not only possible but actually essential for the flourishing of civilization remains a powerful policy goal and aspiration for many. In The Mismeasure of Progress, Stephen J. Macekura exposes a historical road not taken, illuminating the stories of the activists, intellectuals, and other leaders who long argued that GDP growth was not all it was cracked up to be. Beginning with the rise of the growth paradigm in the 1940s and 1950s and continuing through the present day, The Mismeasure of Progress is the first book on the myriad thinkers who argued against growth and the conventional way progress had been measured and defined. For growth critics, questioning the meaning and measurement of growth was a necessary first step to creating a more just, equal, and sustainable world. These critics argued that focusing on growth alone would not resolve social, political, and environmental problems, and they put forth alternate methods for defining and measuring human progress. In today's global political scene--marked by vast inequalities of power and wealth and made even more fraught by a global climate emergency--the ideas presented by these earlier critics of growth resonate more loudly than ever. Economic growth appealed to many political leaders because it allowed them to avoid addressing political trade-offs and class conflict. It sustained the fiction that humans are somehow separate from nonhuman "nature," ignoring the intimate and dense connections between the two. In order to create a truly just and equitable society, Macekura argues, we need a clear understanding of our collective needs beyond growth and more holistic definitions of progress that transcend economic metrics like GDP.

This three volume set gathers together selected key articles in evolutionary economics, ordering these into the domains of micro analysis (concerned with agents), meso analysis (concerned with rule populations and trajectories) and macro analysis (concerned with the structure and development of the whole economy). This authoritative collection, with an original introduction by the editors, will be of interest to scholars and researchers seeking to understand how evolutionary economics fits together and to advance such an integrated approach.