This Festschrift in honor ofChristian Seidl combines a group of prominent authors who are experts in areas like public economics, welfare economic, decision theory, and experimental economics in a unique volume. Christian Seidl who has edited together with Salvador Barber a and Peter Hammond the Handbook of Utility Theory (appearing at Kluwer Academic Publishers/Springer Economics), has dedicated most of his research to utility and decision theory, social choice theory, welfare economics, and public economics. During the last decade, he has turned part of his attention to a research tool that is increasingly gaining in importance in economics: the laboratory experiment. This volume is an attempt to illuminate all facets of Christian Seidl's ambitious research agenda by presenting a collection of both theoretical and expe- mental papers on Utility, Choice, andWelfare written by his closest friends, former students, and much valued colleagues. Christian Seidl was born on August 5, 1940, in Vienna, Austria. Beginning Winter term 1962/63, he studied Economics and Business Administration at the Vienna School of Economics (then "Hochschule fff] ur ] Welthandel"). 1966 he was awarded an MBA by the Vienna School of Economics and 1969 a doctoral degree in Economics. In October 1968 Christian became a research assistant at the Institute of Economics at the University of Vienna. 1973 he acquired his habilitation (right to teach) in Economics - supervised by Wilhelm Weber - from the Department of Law and Economics of the University of Vienna. He was awarded the Dr."

Social Networks and Trust discusses two possible explanations for the emergence of trust via social networks. If network members can sanction untrustworthiness of actors, these actors may refrain from acting in an untrustworthy manner. Moreover, if actors are informed regularly about trustworthy behavior of others, trust will grow among these actors.
A unique combination of formal model building and empirical methodology is used to derive and test hypotheses about the effects of networks on trust. The models combine elements from game theory, which is mainly used in economics, and social network analysis, which is mainly used in sociology.
The hypotheses are tested (1) by analyzing contracts in information technology transactions from a survey on small and medium-sized enterprises and (2) by studying judgments of subjects in a vignette experiment related to hypothetical transactions with a used-car dealer.

The motive force of human activity that propels the stream of progress is here caught at its source, in its most modest, material expressions. The mechanism of the passions acting as determinant in these low spheres is less complex and can therefore be observed with greater precision. All one need do is leave the picture its clear, calm colors and its simple design. Gradually, as that search for material well-being by which man is tormented grows and expand, it also tends to rise and pursue an ascendant course thorough the social classes. In 'I Malavoglia' it is still only the struggle for material needs. Once these needs are satisfied, the search turns into greed for riches and will be embedded in a bourgeois type . . . Giovanni Verga, from the Introduction to The House by the Medlar Tree (I Malavoglia) Motivation In the past decade, many less developed countries have undertaken structural adjustment programs with the hope of breaking the vicious circle of the depression that enveloped them during the 1980s and of loosening the suffocating grip of the debt crisis. Nearly always, macroeconomic stabilization implies a reduction of public spending and, consequently, a reduction of subsidies on wage goods and food production. Other macro policies, such as tariff elimination and exchange rates alignment, alter relative prices and may have significant effects on the level and distribution of income. Today, poverty and inequality are perceived as economic threats as a result of globalization and unbalanced market expansion.

Expanding Competition in Regulated Industries reviews the changing regulatory environment, notably incentive regulation and competition in regulated industries. Some of the major changes in electricity, gas, and telephone utilities allow for competition in local service through unbundling. This book is of interest to researchers, utility managers, regulatory commissions, and the Federal Government.

Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.

Expected utility provides simple, testable properties of the optimum behavior that should be displayed by risk-averse individuals in risky decisions. Simultaneously, given the existence of paradoxes under the expected utility paradigm, expected utility can only be regarded as an approximation of actual behavior. A more realistic model is needed. This is particularly true when treating attitudes toward small probability events: the standard situation for insurable risks. Non-Expected Utility and Risk Management examines whether the existing results in insurance economics are robust to more general models of behavior under risk.

Aggregation of individual opinions into a social decision is a problem widely observed in everyday life. For centuries people tried to invent the best' aggregation rule. In 1951 young American scientist and future Nobel Prize winner Kenneth Arrow formulated the problem in an axiomatic way, i.e., he specified a set of axioms which every reasonable aggregation rule has to satisfy, and obtained that these axioms are inconsistent. This result, often called Arrow's Paradox or General Impossibility Theorem, had become a cornerstone of social choice theory. The main condition used by Arrow was his famous Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives. This very condition pre-defines the local' treatment of the alternatives (or pairs of alternatives, or sets of alternatives, etc.) in aggregation procedures. Remaining within the framework of the axiomatic approach and based on the consideration of local rules, Arrovian Aggregation Models investigates three formulations of the aggregation problem according to the form in which the individual opinions about the alternatives are defined, as well as to the form of desired social decision. In other words, we study three aggregation models. What is common between them is that in all models some analogue of the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives condition is used, which is why we call these models Arrovian aggregation models. Chapter 1 presents a general description of the problem of axiomatic synthesis of local rules, and introduces problem formulations for various versions of formalization of individual opinions and collective decision. Chapter 2 formalizes precisely the notion of rationality' of individual opinions and social decision. Chapter 3 deals with the aggregation model for the case of individual opinions and social decisions formalized as binary relations. Chapter 4 deals with Functional Aggregation Rules which transform into a social choice function individual opinions defined as choice functions. Chapter 5 considers another model &endash; Social Choice Correspondences when the individual opinions are formalized as binary relations, and the collective decision is looked for as a choice function. Several new classes of rules are introduced and analyzed.

A critical issue in research and development (R&D) management is the structure and use of evaluative efforts for R&D programs. The book introduces the different methods that may be used in R&D evaluation and then illustrates these methods by describing actual evaluation in practice using those methods. The book is divided into two sections. The first section provides an introduction and details on several popular methodologies used in the evaluation of research and development activities. The second half of the book focuses on evaluation in practice and is comprised of several chapters offering the perspectives of individuals in different types of organizations. The book concludes with an annotated bibliography of selected R&D evaluation literature, focusing on post-1985 literature, on research evaluation.

Positive conceptions of healthy aging are rightly displacing negative ageist perceptions of older members of our society. Nevertheless, at some stage, most elderly citizens will require some form of assistance from other members of society. When the body or mind begins to fail, a legitimate need for intervention and care will arise. This second volume on Aging discusses this theme.

Industry Structure and Pricing: The New Rivalry in Infrastructure extends current economic models by incorporating effects of actual and potential rivalry in markets outside the markets of immediate interest. Focusing on the contestable model, the author shows how diverse patterns of actual and potential rivalry, called multilateral rivalry or MLR, affect the appropriateness of many regulatory policies. It is specifically shown that many conclusions of the contestability literature are overly generous to firms that might want to protect or extend their monopoly positions. While this book's refinement to existing economic theory gives strong results, it is still based on static production functions and demands - integrated to provide a dynamic view of multilateral rivalry.

A central problem of prescriptive decision making is the mismatch between the elegant formal models of decision theory and the less elegant, informal thinking of decision makers, especially when dealing with ill-structured situations. This problem has been a central concern of the authors and their colleagues over the past two decades. They have wisely (to my mind) realized that any viable solution must be informed by a deep understanding of both the structural properties of alternative formalisms and the cognitive demands that they impose on decision makers. Considering the two in parallel reduces the risk of forcing decision makers to say things and endorse models that they do not really understand. It opens the door for creative solutions, incorporating insights from both decision theory and cognitive psychology. It is this opportunity that the authors have so ably exploited in this important book. Under the pressures of an interview situation, people will often answer a question that is put to them. Thus, they may be willing to provide a decision consultant with probability and utility assessments for all manner of things. However, if they do not fully understand the implications of what they are saying and the use to which it will be put, then they cannot maintain cognitive mastery of the decision models intended to represent their beliefs and interests.

Market Evolution: Competition and Cooperation is a selection of papers presented at the recent meeting of the European Association of Research in Industrial Economics (EARIE). The volume brings together twenty high-quality papers reflecting frontier research in modern industrial organization. The contributions cover a broad spectrum of increasing theoretical, empirical and policy issues, including analyses of the nature of the firm, product differentiation, research and development, strategic alliances, information sharing in the banking sector, exchange rate pass-through in international competition, labor unionization and product rivalry, buyer-supplier bargaining, multimarket competition and related entry, entry and exit processes, multinational enterprises in the Third World, European integration and the restructuring of Eastern Europe. From a theoretical perspective, many chapters apply game theory to the analysis of firm behaviors and market competition. Moreover, a large number of the studies contain a significant empirical part, mainly by employing econometric techniques, to test the hypotheses derived from modern industrial organization theories. Data from Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the European Union are presented and analyzed.

This is the first volume ever published to examine the objective and subjective qualities of Korean life from both comparative and dynamic perspectives. It presents non-Western policy alternatives to enhancing the quality of citizens' lives, distinguishing Korea as an Asian model of economic prosperity and political democracy. It is intended for academics and policymakers interested in recent developments in Korea.

General equilibrium In this book we try to cope with the challenging task of reviewing the so called general equilibrium model and of discussing one specific aspect of the approach underlying it, namely, market completeness. With the denomination "general equilibrium" (from now on in short GE) we shall mainly refer to two different things. On one hand, in particular when using the expression "GE approach", we shall refer to a long established methodolog ical tradition in building and developing economic models, which includes, as of today, an enormous amount of contributions, ranging in number by several 1 thousands * On the other hand, in particular when using the expression "stan dard differentiable GE model", we refer to a very specific version of economic model of exchange and production, to be presented in Chapters 8 and 9, and to be modified in Chapters 10 to 15. Such a version is certainly formulated within the GE approach, but it is generated by making several quite restrictive 2 assumptions * Even to list and review very shortly all the collective work which can be ascribed to the GE approach would be a formidable task for several coauthors in a lifetime perspective. The book instead intends to address just a single issue. Before providing an illustration of its main topic, we feel the obligation to say a word on the controversial character of GE. First of all, we should say that we identify the GE approach as being based 3 on three principles .

JEAN-FRANQOIS MERTENS This book presents a systematic exposition of the use of game theoretic methods in general equilibrium analysis. Clearly the first such use was by Arrow and Debreu, with the "birth" of general equi librium theory itself, in using Nash's existence theorem (or a generalization) to prove the existence of a competitive equilibrium. But this use appeared possibly to be merely tech nical, borrowing some tools for proving a theorem. This book stresses the later contributions, were game theoretic concepts were used as such, to explain various aspects of the general equilibrium model. But clearly, each of those later approaches also provides per sea game theoretic proof of the existence of competitive equilibrium. Part A deals with the first such approach: the equality between the set of competitive equilibria of a perfectly competitive (i.e., every trader has negligible market power) economy and the core of the corresponding cooperative game."

Economic and financial research on insurance markets has undergone dramatic growth since its infancy in the early 1960s. Our main objective in compiling this volume was to achieve a wider dissemination of key papers in this literature. Their significance is highlighted in the introduction, which surveys major areas in insurance economics. While it was not possible to provide comprehensive coverage of insurance economics in this book, these readings provide an essential foundation to those who desire to conduct research and teach in the field. In particular, we hope that this compilation and our introduction will be useful to graduate students and to researchers in economics, finance, and insurance. Our criteria for selecting articles included significance, representativeness, pedagogical value, and our desire to include theoretical and empirical work. While the focus of the applied papers is on property-liability insurance, they illustrate issues, concepts, and methods that are applicable in many areas of insurance. The S. S. Huebner Foundation for Insurance Education at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School made this book possible by financing publication costs. We are grateful for this assistance and to J. David Cummins, Executive Director of the Foundation, for his efforts and helpful advice on the contents. We also wish to thank all of the authors and editors who provided permission to reprint articles and our respective institutions for technical and financial support.

Part I provides an introduction to this study of players' beliefs and decision rules in to obtain data in order to public good games. The experimental method will be used test theoretical ideas about beliefs and decision rules. Chapter 1 discusses some methodological issues concerning experimentation in the social sciences. In particular, this chapter focuses on the relationship between experimental economics and social psychology. Chapter 2 provides an overview of psychological and economic ideas concerning players' beliefs and decision rules in public good games. This chapter forms the theoretical foundation of the book. Chapter 3 discusses some basic experimental tools which will be used in the experiments to be reported in part II. These basic experimental tools make up two procedures, to obtain a measure of a player's social orientation and a measure of her or his beliefs. 1. Experimentation in the social sciences 1.1 Introduction The study of human behavior is an area where economics and psychology overlap. Although both disciplines are concerned with the same human beings, they often have different points of view on how people make choices and the motivation behind it.

Mathematical Models of Distribution Channels identifies eight "Channel Myths" that characterize almost all analytical research on distribution channels. The authors prove that models that incorporate one or more Channel Myths generate distorted conclusions; they also develop a methodology that will enable researchers to avoid falling under the influence of any Channel Myth.

Cross-Cultural Risk Perception demonstrates the richness and wealth of theoretical insights and practical information that risk perception studies can offer to policy makers, risk experts, and interested parties. The book begins with an extended introduction summarizing the state of the art in risk perception research and core issues of cross-cultural comparisons. The main body of the book consists of four cross-cultural studies on public attitudes towards risk in different countries, including the United States, Australia, New Zealand, France, Germany, Sweden, Bulgaria, Romania, Japan, and China. The last chapter critically discusses the main findings from these studies and proposes a framework for understanding and investigating cross-cultural risk perception. Finally, implications for communication, regulation and management are outlined. The two editors, sociologist Ortwin Renn (Center of Technology Assessment, Germany) and psychologist Bernd Rohrmann (University of Melbourne, Australia), have been engaged in risk research for the last three decades. They both have written extensively on this subject and provided new empirical and theoretical insights into the growing body of international risk perception research.

In six chapters this book introduces a micro-economic model where trade takes place through a stable structure of bilateral exchange institutions.The main problem in such models is that, for well-known equilibrium concepts, equilibrium may fail to exist in the corresponding game. In this work an adaptation of such models - hierarchically structured economies - is introduced. The possibilities and limitations of the use of the concept of subgame perfect equilibrium within the context of this kind of models is discussed. Furthermore, it is shown that some well-known market forms, viz. Walrasian and monopolistic markets, occur as special cases. A modification of the concept of subgame perfect equilibrium is introduced to formulate and prove a general theorem on the existence of equilibrium in hierarchically structured economies.

As part of its EU strategy, the Swiss government commissioned several research projects covering the most important aspects of economic integration. Given the interesting results and the wealth of methods used in these studies we decided to organize a conference on the topic of 'The Economic Impact of EU Membership on Entrants: New Methods and Issues." The idea was to use the work on Switzerland as a case study for discussing modern approaches on how to assess the economic effects of joining an integration zone. This seemed to us to be a topic of considerable interest for the rising number of prospective EU-member countries. The response was very favourable with many eminent scholars agreeing to contribute. The conference took place in Lausanne, Switzerland in October 1999 and the papers submitted together with the discussions are published in this volume. We would like to acknowledge the financial support of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs and to thank the University of Lausanne for providing the venue facilities for the conference. Many persons helped in the preparation of the conference and this volume but we would like to especially mention Marc Surchat who provided substantial input for the conference and Walter Brodmann who very efficiently reviewed and finalized the manuscript. The Editors RICHARD E. BALDWIN AND A YMO BRUNETTI THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EU MEMBERSHIP ON ENTRANTS: NEW METHODS AND ISSUES INTRODUCTION What a transformation Europe has witnessed in the past 15 years.

Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of non-random walk, there must be some explanation for the negative forecasting results. The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets examines this issue.

Most economic evaluations of health care programmes at the moment are cost effectiveness and cost-utility analyses. The problem with these methods is that their theoretical foundations are unclear. This has led to confusion about how to define the costs and health effects and how to interpret the results of these studies. In the environmental and traffic safety fields it is instead common to carry out traditional cost-bene: fit analyses of health improving programmes. This striking difference in how health programmes are assessed in different fields was the original motivation for writing this book. The aim of the book is to tty and provide a coherent framework within cost-bene: fit analysis and welfare economics for the different methods of economic evaluation in the health care field. The book is written in an easily accessible manner and several examples of applications of the different methods are provided. It is my hope that it will be useful both for teaching purposes and as a guide for practitioners in the field. Glenn C. Blomquist, John D. Graham, Rich O'Conor and four anonymous referees provided helpful comments on previous versions of the manuscript. I would also like to express my gratitude to the following persons for helping me to prepare the manuscript: Carl-Magnus Berglund, Carin Blanksvard, Ann Brown, and Ziad Obeid."

In his book "Marktform und Gleichgewicht", published initially in 1934, Heinrich von Stackelberg presented his groundbreaking leadership model of firm competition. In a work of great originality and richness, he described and analyzed a market situation in which the leader firm moves first and the follower firms then move sequentially. This game-theoretic model, now widely known as Stackelberg competition, has had tremendous impact on the theory of the firm and economic analysis in general, and has been applied to study decision-making in various fields of business. As the first translation of von Stackelberg's book into English, this volume makes his classic work available in its original form to an English-speaking audience for the very first time.

Quantified Societal Risk and Policy Making is the result of an international workshop on societal risk organized by the Dutch Ministry for Transport, Public Works and Water Management with additional financial support from the Directorate for Transportation (DG VII) of the European Union. Managing risks, whether there is a strong man-made or natural component, basically means assessing alternative options under uncertainty. The possibility of multiple fatalities is one of the factors that can vary between options. This volume is concerned with one particular type of risk - the risk of death of a number of people in one accident - and with one particular tool - probabilistic risk analysis - as they are developing in various domains of society nowadays. Generally, this risk is labelled societal risk. This book shows how such comparisons are shaped at present in various hazard domains, such as: flood protection location and physical planning of industry transportation of chemicals, and prevention of aircraft accidents. It examines how to represent aggregate risks from major hazards in ways that can be handled by policy-makers. The purpose of the book is to increase the awareness of societal risk, disseminate available knowledge of existing approaches, and exchange information on applications from various domains. Quantified Societal Risk and Policy Making should be of interest to all those professionally concerned with defining the optimal separation between hazardous activities and equally desirable developments nearby.