How do we face the uncertainty and complexity of the future? An overly optimistic perspective can be motivating but easily dismissed as naive or shallow; the pessimistic outlook may be considered to be deeper and more 'knowing' but could lead to inaction. But limiting our visions of the future to simply one of these two 'branches' would mean adopting a position that is ultimately no more than a fatalistic rut. Facing The Fold is a collection of highly regarded journal essays about how scenario thinking uses the capacious space of the 'fold' to encourage thinking around alternative scenarios--to create the future we both want and need. Scenarios are not predictions, nor are they strategies. Scenarios are stories -- narratives of alternative futures, designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues. According to Ogilvy, scenario planning has generally been considered an art, but here he discusses the extent to which it can also be considered an integral part of 'the new sciences', especially complexity science. The narrative of scenario planning is of particular importance to complexity practitioners. Like complexity approaches, the advantage of scenarios is that they take into account the values and the contextual complexity surrounding the community and provide a way to reflect on the consequences of any strategy changes. The book is divided into 3 clear sections: Section I is about the 'nuts and bolts' of scenario planning and, as outlined in the first chapter co-authored with Peter Schwartz, the steps involved in the practice of developing scenarios, and the key considerations to ensure successful scenario planning. Section II situates scenario planning in the larger context of the human sciences of anthropology, psychology, literary criticism, philosophy and sociology. Section III offers a set of case studies--actual scenarios created for real projects. Lessons learnt from working in the public and the private sector are followed by two in-depth case studies on the future of higher education in California and K-12 public education in Seattle. The challenges and opportunities that were faced at the time are uncannily similar to current problems in the funding of education facilities around the world. Alternative scenarios to the momentum of increasing deficit and declining quality were developed at the time, and the author provides an afterword to show how these scenarios have held up over time. As Adam Kahane (Reos Partners and the University of Oxford) said in his review '...This wonderful collection of his writings is a most welcome and valuable contribution to the field.'

The European Union is the most successful supranational organization in history. It has reconciled former enemies, established a single market and a common currency, and reintegrated Central and Eastern Europe into the West. Yet the EU remains unsatisfying to its members and its partners. An economic giant but a political pygmy, it seems hamstrung by bureaucracy and a lack of connection to European publics.

In "Europe 2030," distinguished authors predict what the European Union will look like twenty years from new. A range of views is presented, foreseeing everything from slower growth and diminished power to actions that would make the EU a more vigorous, influential world play.

Contributors include Oksana Antonenko (International Institute for Strategic Studies), Jos? Manuel Durao Barroso (European Commission), Jos? Cutileiro (former secretary general, Western European Union), Joschka Fischer (former minister of foreign affairs, Germany), Charles Grant (Center for European Reform), Andrew Hilton (Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation), Jonathan Laurence (German Marshall Fund, Boston College and Brookings Institution), Rui Chancerelle de Machete (consititutional and administrative attorney), Hubert V?drine (former minister of foreign affairs, France), and Joseph H.H. Weiler (New York University).

Talking dolphins . . . Underwater cities . . . Two-hundred-year life spans . . . Welcome to the present

People have always imagined what life would be like in the future. Most of the time they've been wrong. Often they were really, really wrong. Your Flying Car Awaits looks at the most outrageous predictions from twentieth-century scientists, novelists, and social commentators, detailing the technologies and philosophies that led some great (and not so great)minds to think the ridiculous was achievable. Includes phenomenally inaccurate predictions such as: Space tourism will be ubiquitous by the year 2000Nuclear explosives will be used for commercial demolitionEngineered and man-made oceans will cover the planetWeather will be as predictable and controllable as a train schedule

An eye-opening, fascinating, and endlessly entertaining collection of truly boneheaded scientific predictions from the past hundred years, Your Flying Car Awaits shines an illuminating light on the people of the previous century by examining the ridiculous theories they envisioned about this one.

The author of The Modern Girl's Guide to Life asks fifty experts, artists, business leaders, trendsetters, doctors, athletes, environmentalists, and intellectuals

What will the next decade look like?

Where are we headed? That is the question professional trendspotter Jane Buckingham posed to fifty influential leaders in a wide variety of fields--and their responses are surprising, provocative, compelling, and important. The result of her conversations with some of the most fascinating men and women in America today, What's Next is an essential collection of highly individual perspectives on tomorrow's world, including:

Our world is changing faster than ever. The essential insights offered in What's Next can help us keep up--and stay ahead.

Acclaimed writer Reza Aslan's belief that American Islam may become the model for Islam throughout the rest of the world

Attorney Alan Dershowitz's views on the very scientific future of criminal defense law

Campaign adviser Joe Trippi's thoughts on how politics will be turned upside down . . .

and more

Our world is changing faster than ever. The essential insights offered in What's Next can help us keep up--and stay ahead.

El Imperativo Espiritual muestra que, al contrario de lo que piensa la mayoria de la gente, la historia tiene orden, direccion y sentido y el futuro es tan predecible como el tiempo de hoy.

This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social sciences. He recommends that researchers first ask what can be learned from data alone, and then ask what can be learned when data are combined with credible weak assumptions. Inferences predicated on weak assumptions, he argues, can achieve wide consensus, while ones that require strong assumptions almost inevitably are subject to sharp disagreements.

Building on the foundation laid in the author's "Identification Problems in the Social Sciences" (Harvard, 1995), the book's fifteen chapters are organized in three parts. Part I studies prediction with missing or otherwise incomplete data. Part II concerns the analysis of treatment response, which aims to predict outcomes when alternative treatment rules are applied to a population. Part III studies prediction of choice behavior.

Each chapter juxtaposes developments of methodology with empirical or numerical illustrations. The book employs a simple notation and mathematical apparatus, using only basic elements of probability theory.

Cyberspace and cybertechnology have impacted on every aspect of our lives. Western society, culture, politics and economics are now all intricately bound with cyberspace. Living With Cyberspace brings together the leading cyber-theorists of North America, Britain and Australia to map the present and the future of cyberspace.Presenting a guidebook to our new world, both the theory and the practice, the book covers subjects as diverse as androids, biotech, electronic commerce, the acceleration of everyday life, access to information, the alliance between the military and the entertainment industries, feminism, democratic practice and human consciousness itself.Together, the essays--divided into separately introduced sections on society, culture, politics and economics--present a systematic and state-of-the-art overview of technology and society in the 21st Century.Contributors: John Armitage, Verena Andermatt Conley, James Der Derian, William H. Dutton, Phil Graham, Tim Jordan, Wan-Ying Ling, David Lyon, Ian Miles, Joanne Roberts, Saskia Sassen, Cathryn Vasseleu, McKenzie Wark, Frank Webster

Unless something really remarkable happens like Armageddon or a dot.com company declaring profits as we enter the year 2001, things will stay pretty much as they are: images of Princess Diana will still appear in magazines everywhere, the railways will still use rolling stock built in the sixties, and old men driving cars will still inexplicably wear hats and gloves. But behind the facade of normality the future is taking shape. With Sam Goldwyn's famous saying 'Never predict anything - especially the future' firmly in mind, Jonathan Margolis inoculates himself against the pitfalls of prophecy with a chastening look at the history of futurology. Then he takes courage in both hands and sets out to describe the world that's yet to come in the fields of medicine, mind, spirit, home, food, work, leisure, politics, war, society, transport, environment and space.

"Fitz is a well-established scholar whose work on Lispector is highly respected, and this is a well-focused and very knowledgeable study. One of the things I particularly like about this book is that it makes a case for reading Lispector in the light of poststructuralist theory without overwhelming the reader." --Debra A. Castillo, Professor of Romance Studies and Director of Latin American Studies Program, Cornell University Driven by an unfulfilled desire for the unattainable, ultimately indefinable Other, the protagonists of the novels and stories of acclaimed Brazilian writer Clarice Lispector exemplify and humanize many of the issues central to poststructuralist thought, from the nature of language, truth, and meaning to the unstable relationships between language, being, and reality. In this book, Earl Fitz demonstrates that, in turn, poststructuralism offers important and revealing insights into all aspects of Lispector's writing, including her style, sense of structure, characters, themes, and socio-political conscience. Fitz draws on Lispector's entire oeuvre--novels, stories, cronicas, and children's literature--to argue that her writing consistently reflects the basic tenets of poststructuralist theory. He shows how Lispector's characters struggle over and humanize poststructuralist dilemmas and how their essential sense of being is deeply dependent on a shifting, and typically transgressive, sense of desire and sexuality.

What do variables really tell us? When exactly do inventions occur? Why do we always miss turning points as they transpire? When does what doesn't happen mean as much, if not more, than what does? Andrew Abbott considers these fascinating questions in "Time Matters," a diverse series of essays that constitutes the most extensive analysis of temporality in social science today. Ranging from abstract theoretical reflection to pointed methodological critique, Abbott demonstrates the inevitably theoretical character of any methodology.
"Time Matters" focuses particularly on questions of time, events, and causality. Abbott grounds each essay in straightforward examinations of actual social scientific analyses. Throughout, he demonstrates the crucial assumptions we make about causes and events, about actors and interaction and about time and meaning every time we employ methods of social analysis, whether in academic disciplines, market research, public opinion polling, or even evaluation research. Turning current assumptions on their heads, Abbott not only outlines the theoretical orthodoxies of empirical social science, he sketches new alternatives, laying down foundations for a new body of social theory.

Will humanity survive the coming century? Are we threatened by a demographic time-bomb? Will there be food for all? Can we eliminate poverty? Are we, in our cities, heading for a kind of apartheid between the affluent and the socially excluded? Will new information technologies increase the gap between rich and poor - or, on the contrary, open up opportunities for lifelong distance education for all? Are women going to win their legitimate place in society? Is it true that many languages are in danger of extinction? How can we forestall global warming and the onward march of the world's deserts? Will there be wars over access to shrinking supplies of water? What are the prospects of running out of affordable oil and gas; and can we harness solar energy? This book looks at the major challenges of the future. Packed with the latest information and scientific understandings, it traverses a rich tapestry of crucial issues, threats and choices confronting humanity and proposes a new start based on four broad contracts: social, natural, cultural and ethical. In a world where problems are taking on increasingly global dimensions, we must come up with global solutions. We need to turn a culture of violence into a culture of peace. The choice is stark: either a 21st century with a human face or the grimacing mask of a 'Brave New World'.

A memoir of postmodern times, cast as a history. This book is narrated by a far-future historian, Peter Jensen, who leaves this account of the world from the 1990s to the opening of the 23rd century as a gift to his granddaughter. A combination of fiction and scholarship, this edition of Wagar's speculative history of the future alternates between descriptions of world events and intimate glimpses of his fictive historian's family into the first centuries of the new millennium.

As a talk-show host for more than four decades, Larry King has encountered the most powerful and influential people in the world. Now, in Future Talk, he converses with some of today's most provocative thinkers to get their perspectives on what's in store for us in days to come.

In this book, composed of original interviews never broadcast or published before, Larry King takes us on a tour of the future of politics, religion, the media, war and peace, money, work, travel, sports, and the arts--all from the point of view of highly regarded individuals at the top of their fields.

King has conversations with: Stephen Jay Gould on the unprecedented challenges mankind faces; Marian Wright Edelman on the risks confronting families; Tim Russert on the media and political coverage; Doris Kearns Goodwin on the talents a future president will need to succeed; Gen. John Shalikashvili on military developments; Bill Gates on how computers and the Internet will continue to permeate our lives; Richard C. Holbrooke on the challenges of world diplomacy; C. Everett Koop on the increasingly volatile relationship between government and health care; Lester Thurow on world economics and how the United States needs to position itself; Albert Berkeley on how Wall Street will play less of a central role in investors' lives; Bob Costas on how sports will grow and change, as well as how they will be covered; Maya Angelou and Peter Max on the meanings and relevance of art; Isaac Mizrahi on what we'll be wearing; Stephen Cannell on what we'll be watching; and Robert Thurman and Elaine Pagels on spirituality and what we'll be doing to nourish our souls.These and many other interviews offer comments that are candid and opinionated, optimistic and pessimistic. They will engender reflection and surprise and ultimately provide insight into what tomorrow will bring.

"Charging Ahead" foretells the world's next great energy transformation: the shift to clean, renewable energy sources. It shows how renewable energy, energy efficiency, and electric vehicles, when used together, can give us back a clean environment and create a healthy, sustainable economy. In chronicling this extraordinary technological revolution, John J. Berger provides a fascinating look at the new industries that will make it possible, and the trillion-dollar benefits Americans can enjoy by choosing pollution-free energy and transportation.

What methodological tools have been most useful in doing evaluation? What are some of the new methodologies that are being used and developed? Will the types of things evaluated expand from programs, personnel, and products to foreign aid, medical technology, environmental interventions, and World Bank loan programs? What will evaluation be like in the 21st century? These impressive evaluators from around the globe explore how evaluation has come to be what it is today and what the professional evaluation landscape will be like in the future. They examine the following:

-What makes evaluation different from other disciplines?

-The links and differences between evaluation and auditing professions?

-Which activities have priority in evaluation, under what circumstances, and for what purposes?

-New methodological approaches to doing evaluation.

-The issues of advocacy versus truth in evaluation and between evaluating programs versus empowering people to evaluate their own programs.

Evaluation for the 21st Century features thoughtfully written introductions to each of the main sections that provide a context and synthesis of the various evaluators? chapters. After reading this groundbreaking book, researchers and practitioners will be able to recognize these new developments in evaluation as they encounter them, place them in context, and incorporate them into their own evaluation professions and practices.

A stunning achievement, Evaluation for the 21st Century is for all professionals and practitioners in evaluation, management, public administration, sociology, psychology, education research, public health, and nursing.

On 1 July 1997 the red flag with five yellow stars of the People's Republic of China will be hoisted over Government House in Hong Kong, replacing the Union Jack and symbolizing the culmination of a profound political transition. The United Kingdom, which has governed the colony since 1841, will have transferred sovereignty and administrative responsibility over Hong Kong to mainland China's Communist party. Hong Kong is in for a rocky road in the years ahead. Future treatment of Hong Kong will be caught up in the political competition for control of China. Victims of that competition will include the free press, academic freedom, open and fair elections, and some portion of market freedom. Hong Kong will not be as tightly controlled as the rest of China, but neither will it be the free and vivacious place it has been for the past half century. The political and economic landscape will be filled with uncertainty, cronyism, lost freedoms, and more corruption than has been known in the recent past. It is a bleak picture indeed. Such is the dire prophecy of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Newman, and Alvin Rabushka, whose Red Flag over Hong Kong casts a cold eye on the future prospects of "the world's best example of the free-market economy, working as textbooks say it should". Applying to that unknown future a dynamic model of decision making that rests on the collection of data from a wide range of expert observers, the authors boldly seek to quantify human behavior and so derive a precise and reliable early forecast of Hong Kong's destiny at the hands of its communist masters.

Profound ideas from remarkably original couple. --Future Survey Spanning a period of 28 years, this collection of essays by renowned futurist scholars Elise and Kenneth Boulding presents a thoughtful exploration of past, present--and possible--world development. The juxtaposition of works by both authors fosters a deeper understanding of their individual views while allowing the reader to evaluate the element of mutual influence. Offering a wide range of political, economic, and social perspectives on the global future, the volume's overarching theme is clear: The world is in dire need of mending. Conveying the passionate conviction of its contributors, this compelling set of essays stands as a tribute to Kenneth Boulding's life, his work, and his dedication to the study of the future as more than an intellectual curiosity--as something essential to the survival of mankind itself. Students and professors of political science, sociology, and economics will appreciate this thought-provoking volume. "The authors display their passionate concern with the future, a concern shown partly in their joint interest in peace projects. They write lucidly and gracefully making these some of the most attractive and stimulating contributions to our thinking about the future." --Krishan Kumar in Political Studies

A unique examination of the civic use, regulation, and politics of communication and data technologies City life has been reconfigured by our use-and our expectations-of communication, data, and sensing technologies. In this book Alison Powell examines the civic use, regulation, and politics of these technologies, looking at how governments, planners, citizens, and activists expect them to enhance life in the city. She argues that the de facto forms of citizenship that emerge in relation to these technologies represent sites of contention over how governance and civic power should operate. These sites become more significant as an increasingly urbanized and polarized world faces new struggles over local participation and engagement. The author moves past the usual discussion of top-down versus bottom-up civic action and instead explains how citizenship shifts in response to technological change and particularly in response to issues related to pervasive sensing, big data, and surveillance in "smart cities."

The classic bestselling work from Britain’s pre-eminent management thinker

Are you on the way to Davy’s bar?

When is the moment to take the Sigmoid curve?

Do you know the Doughnut Principle?

What is a Chinese contract?

The changes which Charles Handy foresaw in The Age of Unreason are happening now. Endless growth makes for a candyfloss economy, and capitalism must be its own sternest critic. In this extraordinary, life-affirming book, Charles Handy reaches for a philosophy beyond the impersonal mechanics of business organisations, beyond material choices. He presents a powerful alternative vision, where life and work are regrounded in a natural sense of continuity, connection and purposeful direction. We are now a world of shareholders, but everyone has a stake in the future. With warmth, wit and the most challenging insights, Charles Handy seeks to turn paradox into real progress.

Forget the old concept of the 9-5. In a changing world, companies around the globe are redesigning the working week to increase efficiency, health, productivity and happiness in their employees. Now you can do the same. A growing number of businesses are shortening their working weeks to address problems with low productivity, poor mental health and unequal working opportunities. Workers are still paid the same salary for a four-day week and the results are revolutionary; so much so that a pilot scheme has recently launched in the UK, based on this model. In Shorter, bestselling author of Rest Alex Pang studies these trailblazing businesses working fewer hours, where managers are reporting their teams to be: - More creative in their problem solving - Happier and with lower stress and anxiety and cases of burn out - More productive Pang will reveal step by step how they have gone about making these changes, the challenges and solutions and, most importantly, how you can do the same.

By 2050 the world will be faced with the enormous challenge of feeding 9 billion people despite being affected by climate change, rising energy costs and pressure on food growing land and other major resources. How will the world produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a projected extra 2.3 billion people? What will be the impact of food shortages and high prices on areas in crisis such as sub-Sahara Africa? Where will future production growth come from? And how do we balance the need for environmental protection with sustainable agricultural production methods? This is the first text to present a scholarly, balanced approach to the contentious area of food production and supply up to 2050 - offering a readable and well-informed account which tackles the global food situation in all its totality, from agricultural production, technological advance, dietary concerns, population changes, income trends, environmental issues, government food and agriculture policy, trade, financial markets, macroeconomics and food security. Highly accessible and written by a specialist author with experience as an agricultural analyst, policy advisor and researcher, "Global Food Futures" synthesises the key issues in one volume.

For centuries, scientists have strived to predict the future. But to what extent have they succeeded? Can past events-Hurricane Katrina, the Internet stock bubble, the SARS outbreak-help us understand what will happen next? Will scientists ever really be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic, or economic crash to thunder through our lives? In "The Future of Everything," David Orrell looks back at the history of forecasting, from the time of the oracle at Delphi to the rise of astrology to the advent of the TV weather report, showing us how scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future. How can today's scientists claim to anticipate future weather events when even thee-day forecasts prove a serious challenge? How can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?

For Akiva Jaap Vroman "a day in the infinite past" is nonsense. All the days that have elapsed belong to a past of countable days; they started on a first day a finite number of days ago. Time began this first day. It follows that an eternal past does not exist. Vroman bases his reasoning on a simple mathematical law: an infinite quantity remains the same infinite quantity if a finite quantity, however large, is subtracted from it. "On God, Space, and Time" devotes itself to this proof. "On God, Space, and Time" is rooted in the epistemological thinking of Immanuel Kant and Jean Piaget and the law of Leucippus, and draws from the somewhat disparate fields of psychology, physiology, mathematics, and physics. Vroman discusses the modern vindication of the existence of the Creator using ontological arguments, which observe the cosmos solely through our sense-perceptions and the world of space and matter. He balances this worldview with a discussion of brain chemistry and physiology in "God, Mind, and Body" showing that the world of space and matter is nothing but an interpretation made by our working mind. Vroman also describes the Spanish-based Jewish philosophers of the Middle Ages who came close to solving the Genesis-Creation contradiction, which cannot be reconciled through the external world of Greek philosophy. As we travel through time with Vroman, who ranges easily and poetically over important concepts and influential thinkers, we encounter a variety of subjects: Spinoza's new definition of God and the authority of reason in the age of Descartes, Leibniz, and Newton; Jewish idealists, such as Nachman Krochmal, Solomon L. Steinman, Solomon Formstecher, and Samuel Hirsch; the concept of space-time; and Johann Gottlieb Fichte, Arthur Schopenhauer, Max Wentscher, and Charles Darwin. He presents engaging, worthwhile discussions of futurology; the astrological world of sub-lunar events; religious eschatology, specifically the Jewish and Christian Messiah; apocalyptic revelation in psychological science, the future of the universe, God and moral virtue, the medical approach to the question of life and death, and finally, personal thoughts on religious worship and service based on reason and moral sense. "On God, Space, and Time"a valuable historical synthesis of Western thought on man's vision of God, and consequently reality. This volume will interest many, particularly those intrigued by philosophy, religion, and futurology.

Trends have become a commodity-an element of culture in their own right and the very currency of our cultural life. Consumer culture relies on a new class of professionals who explain trends, predict trends, and in profound ways even manufacture trends. On Trend delves into one of the most powerful forces in global consumer culture. From forecasting to cool hunting to design thinking, the work done by trend professionals influences how we live, work, play, shop, and learn. Devon Powers' provocative insights open up how the business of the future kindles exciting opportunity even as its practices raise questions about an economy increasingly built on nonstop disruption and innovation. Merging industry history with vivid portraits of today's trend visionaries, Powers reveals how trends took over, what it means for cultural change, and the price all of us pay to see-and live-the future.