Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to
decision-making: agents should choose from the available options
those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book
argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian
decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options
over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings,
including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical
thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a
practical difference. The arguments make novel use of machinery
from other areas of philosophical inquiry, including first-person
epistemology and the free will debate. The book also illustrates
the applicability of decision theory itself to questions about the
direction of time and the special epistemic status of agents.
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