Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a
fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do
what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita
uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict
and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His
forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to
major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and
in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling
methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes
negotiations and conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John
Nash, the Nobel Prize--winning scientist perhaps best known from "A
Beautiful Mind," Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and
cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that
allows individuals to think strategically about what their
opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to
every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the
North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process
and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which
corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most
likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started
with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita
also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies
to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty
regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure
out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the
Taliban).
But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn't just for saving
the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to
succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case
and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the
CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to
be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start
by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile
radius, and negotiate only over the phone).
Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer's
Game will change how you understand the world and manage your
future. Life's a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
"From the Hardcover edition."
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