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Books > Business & Economics > Business & management > Management & management techniques > Management decision making
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Streetlights and Shadows - Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making (Paperback)
Loot Price: R686
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Streetlights and Shadows - Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making (Paperback)
Series: Streetlights and Shadows
Expected to ship within 9 - 17 working days
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An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision
making can get us into trouble-and why experience can't be replaced
by rules, procedures, or analytical methods. In making decisions,
when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze
every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we
rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that
for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines-gather
as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the
goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our
best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly
following procedures. In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein
debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He
takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows
that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The
standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough
decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity.
Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the
information is accurate and complete-but that doesn't often happen
in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that
led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.) Klein
offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in
real-life settings. He provides many examples-ranging from airline
pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain
Jack Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master and Commander novels-to
make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others
didn't. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern
patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us,
if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop
expecting the data to tell us everything.
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