Most adults consider themselves numerate if they can perform the
simple functions of addition, subtraction, multiplication and
division. An understanding of the way numbers work is increasingly
important as our lives become more and more informed by them; many
of the everyday decisions we have to make involve the understanding
of complex figures, the news we hear is backed up by statistics, we
routinely talk of percentages and ratios in the most casual
conversations. However, even those who think they're thoroughly au
fait with these techniques can easily be fooled by the misleading
presentation of figures, whether through deliberate
misrepresentation by cynical politicians or advertisers, or
insufficient lucidity on the part of news reporters, doctors,
lawyers and other influential individuals. In this book, Gerd
Gigerenzer attempts to illuminate this widespread misrepresentation
and suggests clear paths of thought to be used when faced with
'incontrovertible' facts derived from spurious mathematics.
Gigerenzer is not short of examples to illustrate his case. One,
derived from the work of mathematician John Allen Paulos, concerns
a TV weather forecaster reporting that there was a 50 percent
chance of rain on a Saturday and a 50 percent chance of rain on the
Sunday, and concluding that this meant that there was a 100 percent
chance of rain that weekend. This kind of functional innumeracy is
found again and again, from trivial examples such as the above to
those involving crucially important situations such as AIDS testing
and mammogram results. This is no mere whine about 'falling
standards', but instead points up a general lack of perception in a
central area of our lives which materially affects the way we make
important decisions. And it's a good read as well; the examples
given are interesting stories in themselves and Gigerenzer is a
lively narrator who moves smoothly from one chapter to another. Add
to this a number of beguilingly simple methods towards clearer
thinking and some fascinating sidelines on the nature of
probability, and I reckon nine out of ten readers will say their
cats enjoyed this book. Probably. (Kirkus UK)
However much we want certainty in our lives, it feels as if we live in an uncertain and dangerous world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are we misled by our ignorance of the reality of risk?
Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways. With real world examples, such as the incidence of errors in tests for breast cancer or HIV, DNA fingerprinting, and the manipulation of statistics for evidence in court, he shows that our difficulty in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.
This essential book illustrates how, with a few simple techniques, we can learn to uncloud our minds, demand helpfully presented information and turn ignorance into insight.
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