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World economic outlook - October 2019, global manufacturing downturn, rising trade barriers (Paperback)
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World economic outlook - October 2019, global manufacturing downturn, rising trade barriers (Paperback)
Series: World economic and financial surveys
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After slowing sharply in the last three quarters of 2018, the pace
of global economic activity remains weak. Momentum in manufacturing
activity, in particular, has weakened substantially, to levels not
seen since the global financial crisis. Rising trade and
geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty about the future
of the global trading system and international cooperation more
generally, taking a toll on business confidence, investment
decisions, and global trade. A notable shift toward increased
monetary policy accommodation - through both action and
communication - has cushioned the impact of these tensions on
financial market sentiment and activity, while a generally
resilient service sector has supported employment growth. That
said, the outlook remains precarious. Global growth is forecast at
3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008-09 and a 0.3
percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic
Outlook. Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a
0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April),
reflecting primarily a projected improvement in economic
performance in a number of emerging markets in Latin America, the
Middle East, and emerging and developing Europe that are under
macroeconomic strain. Yet, with uncertainty about prospects for
several of these countries, a projected slowdown in China and the
United States, and prominent downside risks, a much more subdued
pace of global activity could well materialise. To forestall such
an outcome, policies should decisively aim at defusing trade
tensions, reinvigorating multilateral cooperation, and providing
timely support to economic activity where needed. To strengthen
resilience, policymakers should address financial vulnerabilities
that pose risks to growth in the medium term. Making growth more
inclusive, which is essential for securing better economic
prospects for all, should remain an overarching go
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