Signal detection theory--as developed in electrical engineering and
based on statistical decision theory--was first applied to human
sensory discrimination 40 years ago. The theoretical intent was to
provide a valid model of the discrimination process; the
methodological intent was to provide reliable measures of
discrimination acuity in specific sensory tasks. An analytic method
of detection theory, called the relative operating characteristic
(ROC), can isolate the effect of the placement of the decision
criterion, which may be variable and idiosyncratic, so that a pure
measure of intrinsic discrimination acuity is obtained. For the
past 20 years, ROC analysis has also been used to measure the
discrimination acuity or inherent accuracy of a broad range of
practical diagnostic systems. It was widely adopted by
methodologists in the field of information retrieval, is
increasingly used in weather forecasting, and is the generally
preferred method in clinical medicine, primarily in radiology. This
book attends to both themes, ROC analysis in the psychology
laboratory and in practical diagnostic settings, and to their
essential unity.
The focus of this book is on "detection" and "recognition" as
fundamental tasks that underlie most complex behaviors. As defined
here, they serve to distinguish between two alternative, confusable
stimulus categories, which may be perceptual or cognitive
categories in the psychology laboratory, or different states of the
world in practical diagnostic tasks.
This book on signal detection theory in psychology was written by
one of the developers of the theory, who co-authored with D.M.
Green the classic work published in this area in 1966 (reprinted in
1974 and 1988). This volume reviews the history of the theory in
engineering, statistics, and psychology, leading to the separate
measurement of the two independent factors in all discrimination
tasks, discrimination acuity and decision criterion. It extends the
previous book to show how in several areas of psychology--in
vigilance and memory--what had been thought to be discrimination
effects were, in reality, effects of a changing criterion.
The book shows that data plotted in terms of the relative
operating characteristic have essentially the same form across the
wide range of discrimination tasks in psychology. It develops the
implications of this ROC form for measures of discrimination
acuity, pointing up the valid ones and identifying several common,
but invalid, ones. The area under the binormal ROC is seen to be
supported by the data; the popular measures "d'" and percent
correct are not. An appendix describes the best, current programs
for fitting ROCs and estimating their parameters, indices, and
standard errors.
The application of ROC analysis to diagnostic tasks is also
described. Diagnostic accuracy in a wide range of tasks can be
expressed in terms of the ROC area index. Choosing the appropriate
decision criterion for a given diagnostic setting--rather than
considering some single criterion to be natural and fixed--has a
major impact on the efficacy of a diagnostic process or system.
Illustrated here by separate chapters are diagnostic systems in
radiology, information retrieval, aptitude testing, survey
research, and environments in which imminent dangerous conditions
must be detected. Data from weather forecasting, blood testing, and
polygraph lie detection are also reported. One of these chapters
describes a general approach to enhancing the accuracy of
diagnostic systems.
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