This Element explores the Bayesian approach to the logic and
epistemology of scientific reasoning. Section 1 introduces the
probability calculus as an appealing generalization of classical
logic for uncertain reasoning. Section 2 explores some of the vast
terrain of Bayesian epistemology. Three epistemological postulates
suggested by Thomas Bayes in his seminal work guide the
exploration. This section discusses modern developments and
defenses of these postulates as well as some important criticisms
and complications that lie in wait for the Bayesian epistemologist.
Section 3 applies the formal tools and principles of the first two
sections to a handful of topics in the epistemology of scientific
reasoning: confirmation, explanatory reasoning, evidential
diversity and robustness analysis, hypothesis competition, and
Ockham's Razor.
General
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