"Transportation Indicators and Business Cycles" recognises the
important role the transportation sector plays in business cycle
propagation and develops indicators for this sector to identify its
current state, and predict its future. The reference cycle is
defined, including business and growth cycles, for this sector over
the period from 1979 using both the conventional National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER) method and modern time series models. A
one-to-one correspondence between cycles in the transportation
sector and those in the aggregate economy is found. It also
constructs an index of leading indicators for the transportation
sector using rigorous statistical procedures, and performs well as
a forecasting tool.
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