The controversial Bush doctrine of preemptive war is often
described as revolutionary. In fact, as this comparative study of
rivalries involving weapons of mass destruction (WMD) shows,
notions of preventive and preemptive war have long been closely
tied to such weapons. In this study, a wealth of historical data is
analyzed to address the fundamental question that WMD proliferation
raises for U.S. defense policy: will the projection of U.S. power
be deterred by nascent WMD arsenals in the hands of rogue
states?
This wide-ranging comparison yields the conclusion that small WMD
arsenals do not have the deterrent effects often attributed to them
by scholars and analysts. These theorists ignore history's close
calls, an oversight we share at our peril.
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