The conditional, if...then, is probably the most important term in
natural language and forms the core of systems of logic and mental
representation. It occurs in all human languages and allows people
to express their knowledge of the causal or law-like structure of
the world and of others' behaviour, e.g., if you turn the key the
car starts, if John walks the dog he stops for a pint of beer; to
make promises, e.g., if you cook tonight, I'll wash up all week; to
regulate behaviour, e.g., if you are drinking beer, you must be
over 18 years of age; to suggest what would have happened had
things been different, e.g., if the match had been dry it would
have lit, among many other possible uses. The way in which the
conditional is modelled also determines the core of most logical
systems. Unsurprisingly, it is also the most researched expression
in the psychology of human reasoning.
Cognition and Conditionals is the first volume for over 20 years
(On Conditionals, 1986, CUP) that brings together recent
developments in the cognitive science and psychology of conditional
reasoning. Over the last 10 to 15 years, research on conditionals
has come to dominate the psychology of reasoning providing a rich
seam of results that have created new theoretical possibilities.
This book shows how these developments have led researchers to view
people's conditional reasoning behaviour more as succesful
probabilistic reasoning rather than as errorful logical reasoning.
It shows how the multifarious, and apparently competing,
theoretical positions developed over the last 50 years in this area
- mental logics, mental models, heuristic approaches, dual process
theory, and probabilistic approaches-have responded to these
insights. Its organisation reflects the view that an integrative
approach is emerging that may need to exploit aspects of all these
theoretical positions to explain the rich and complex phenomenon of
reasoning with conditionals. It includes an introductory chapter
relating the development of the psychology of reasoning to
developments in the logic and semantics of the conditional. It also
includes chapters by many of the leading figures in this field.
Cognition and Conditionals will be a valuable resource for
cognitive scientists, psychologists and philosophers interested how
people actually reason with conditionals.
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