The subtexts of this first-class critique of human (non) reason are
that we all tell ourselves lies (at least some of the time)...that
if you want to believe it's true, it is (faith healing, ESP)...that
humans can't help seeing patterns where none exist (in clouds, in
disastrous events, in gamblers' streaks). Furthermore, if you would
like to learn more about how not to deceive yourself, you might
take a course in one of the "soft" probabilistic sciences like
psychology. This might be construed as self-serving, since Gilovich
happens to teach psychology at Cornell. However, the point is well
taken because such courses should expose students to a minimum of
statistics - such as the law of regression, which says that when
two variables are partially related, extremes in one variable are
matched, on average, by less extreme variables in the other.
(Children of tall parents are tall, but not as tall as their
parents.) Gilovich attributes the general lack of appreciation of
the law to "the compelling nature of judgment by representation" -
by which the predicted outcome should be as close to the data as
possible: the son of a 6'5" dad should be close to 6'5". Gilovich
also points to other pitfalls in reasoning, such as failure to
record negative outcomes (how many times do you dream of an old
friend and not bump into him the next day?). And he discusses
deeper motives - e.g., fear of dying, prospects of power or
immortality, and similar self-aggrandizing traits that fortify
superstitions and the will to believe. Altogether, a satisfying
splash of skepticism and reason in a world where the Lake Wobegon
phenomenon - "the women are strong, the men are good-looking and
all the children are above average" - prevails. (Kirkus Reviews)
Thomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of
the obvious in everyday life.
When can we trust what we believe--that "teams and players have
winning streaks," that "flattery works," or that "the more people
who agree, the more likely they are to be right"--and when are such
beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of
the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with
examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he
documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that
distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a
rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us
process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what
we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to
make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to
more effective analysis and action.
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