A guide to long-term thinking: how to envision the far future of
Earth.We live on a planet careening toward environmental collapse
that will be largely brought about by our own actions. And yet we
struggle to grasp the scale of the crisis, barely able to imagine
the effects of climate change just ten years from now, let alone
the multi-millennial timescales of Earth's past and future life
span. In this book, Vincent Ialenti offers a guide for envisioning
the planet's far future--to become, as he terms it, more skilled
deep time reckoners. The challenge, he says, is to learn to inhabit
a longer now. Ialenti takes on two overlapping crises: the
Anthropocene, our current moment of human-caused environmental
transformation; and the deflation of expertise--today's popular
mockery and institutional erosion of expert authority. The second
crisis, he argues, is worsening the effects of the first. Hearing
out scientific experts who study a wider time span than a Facebook
timeline is key to tackling our planet's emergency.
Astrophysicists, geologists, historians, evolutionary biologists,
climatologists, archaeologists, and others can teach us the art of
long-termism. For a case study in long-term thinking, Ialenti turns
to Finland's nuclear waste repository "Safety Case" experts. These
scientists forecast far future glaciations, climate changes,
earthquakes, and more, over the coming tens of thousands--or even
hundreds of thousands or millions--of years. They are not pop
culture "futurists" but data-driven, disciplined technical experts,
using the power of patterns to construct detailed scenarios and
quantitative models of the far future. This is the kind of time
literacy we need if we are to survive the Anthropocene.
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