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Scenario-Driven Planning - Learning to Manage Strategic Uncertainty (Hardcover, New)
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Scenario-Driven Planning - Learning to Manage Strategic Uncertainty (Hardcover, New)
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Scenario-driven planning is a new management technology for
strategy design that employs computed or strategic scenarios to
improve the quality of managerial thinking. Strategic scenarios-the
outcomes of modeling strategic situations-produce insight much
richer than that expected from environmental scenarios alone. They
bring to the consulting and upper-level management audiences a
better way of handling strategic uncertainty, providing the tools
managers and strategy students need for thinking and dialoguing
about complex strategic issues. This new Quorum book deals with a
subject that has gradually emerged to the forefront of planning
theory. Scenario-driven planning (SDP) is a new technology for
management design that empowers organizations to address the
various uncertainties that beset them. In recognition of the
increasing turbulence of the business environment, this new
technology for strategic management is attracting a great deal of
attention. However, most present approaches to SDP fall short of
the full power of modern management practices. Buttressed by an
extensive index and reference list, this book is the most
comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario approach. Written
for practicing managers and consultants distrustful of quick fixes,
as well as for academics and students in the field, the book starts
with the present business malaise of developed economies and
follows it with a presentation of the historical antecedents of the
origins of SDP. It then gradually develops a modern treatment of
the scenario approach, starting with its origins, proceeding with
graduated case studies (simple applications first, followed by
standard applications), and finally concluding with discussion of
the theoretical issues and emerging trends that underlie the
scenario approach. Drawing on their combined theoretical and
consulting experiences, the authors enumerate the cognitive biases
and other obstacles to the management of strategic uncertainty.
They present a method that goes beyond the enumeration of
judgemental environmental scenarios, and introduce simple as well
as more sophisicated methods for computing strategic decision
scenarios. Called CSM (Comprehensive Situation Mapping), this
analytical approach to strategic planning allows managerial
thinking to soar past the bureaucratic side of planning in order to
take advantage of creative dialectics. Because of its computational
and dialectic features, the CSM approach can be used by astute
corporate leaders as an opportunity for promoting organizational
learning.
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