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David Hume on Miracles, Evidence, and Probability (Hardcover)
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David Hume on Miracles, Evidence, and Probability (Hardcover)
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David Hume's argument against believing in miracles has attracted
nearly continuous attention from philosophers and theologians since
it was first published in 1748. Hume's many commentators, however,
both pro and con, have often misunderstood key aspects of Hume's
account of evidential probability and as a result have
misrepresented Hume's argument and conclusions regarding miracles
in fundamental ways. This book argues that Hume's account of
probability descends from a long and laudable tradition that goes
back to ancient Roman and medieval law. That account is entirely
and deliberately non-mathematical. As a result, any analysis of
Hume's argument in terms of the mathematical theory of probability
is doomed to failure. Recovering the knowledge of this ancient
tradition of probable reasoning leads us to a correct
interpretation of Hume's argument against miracles, enables a more
accurate understanding of many other episodes in the history of
science and of philosophy, and may be also useful in contemporary
attempts to weigh evidence in epistemically complex situations
where confirmation theory and mathematical probability theory have
proven to be less helpful than we would have hoped.
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